Plio-Pleistocene time evolution of the 100-ky cycle in marine paleoclimate records

To constrain theories for the dynamical evolution of global ice mass through the late Neogene, it is important to determine whether major changes in the record were gradual or rapid. Of particular interest is the evolution of the near 100-ky ice age cycle in the middle Pleistocene. We have applied a new technique based on multiple taper spectrum analysis which allows us to model the time evolution of quasi-periodic signals. This technique uses both phase and amplitude information, and enables us to address the question of abrupt versus gradual onset of the 100-ky periodicity in the middle Pleistocene

A Theory of Global Climate Change on Millennial Time Scales

A Theory of Global Climate Change on Millennial Time Scales In the northern hemisphere, large and rapid shifts in environmental conditions have occurred repeatedly over the last glacial- interglacial cycle. Indications are that climate change occurs on two characteristic time scales, roughly 1 - 3,000 years and 5 - 10,000 years. Evidence for millennial-scale climate variability has been found in ice cores drilled through the Greenland ice sheet, sediment cores from the North Atlantic Ocean, pollen records from both North America and Europe, and glacial deposits in North America. Paleoclimate records from the southern hemisphere also show climatic variability on millennial time scales. While interhemispheric synchrony has been observed for the last termination, the record of alpine glaciers and lake sediments in the Andes and New Zealand now suggest that these higher frequency changes may also be synchronous with the climatic fluctuations of the Northern Hemisphere. This award supports a project designed to model the higher frequency variations of climate. One of the challenges of developing such a theory for millennial-scale climate change will be to account for interhemispheric connections within the context of a global environmental system. While changes in the thermohaline circulation of the ocean have been postulated as a cause for rapid climate change on millennial time scales in and around the North Atlantic, interhemispheric synchrony would implicate the atmosphere as a key factor in global climate change on this time scale

Barry Saltzman and the Theory of Climate

Barry Saltzman was a giant in the fields of meteorology and climate science. A leading figure in the study of weather and climate for over 40 yr, he has frequently been referred to as the father of modern climate theory. Ahead of his time in many ways, Saltzman made significant contributions to our understanding of the general circulation and spectral energetics budget of the atmosphere, as well as climate change across a wide spectrum of time scales. In his endeavor to develop a unified theory of how the climate system works, lie played a role in the development of energy balance models, statistical dynamical models, and paleoclimate dynamical models. He was a pioneer in developing meteorologically motivated dynamical systems, including the progenitor of Lorenz\u27s famous chaos model. In applying his own dynamical-systems approach to long-term climate change, he recognized the potential for using atmospheric general circulation models in a complimentary way. In 1998, he was awarded the Carl-Gustaf Rossby medal, the highest honor of the American Meteorological Society for his life-long contributions to the study of the global circulation and the evolution of the earth\u27s climate. In this paper, the authors summarize and place into perspective some of the most significant contributions that Barry Saltzman made during his long and distinguished career. This short review also serves as an introduction to the papers in this special issue of the Journal of Climate dedicated to Barry\u27s memory

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

Researchers are continuing their studies of the nonlinear dynamics of global weather systems. Sensitivity analyses of large-scale dynamical models of the atmosphere (i.e., general circulation models i.e., GCM's) were performed to establish the role of satellite-signatures of soil moisture, sea surface temperature, snow cover, and sea ice as crucial boundary conditions determining global weather variability. To complete their study of the bimodality of the planetary wave states, they are using the dynamical systems approach to construct a low-order theoretical explanation of this phenomenon. This work should have important implications for extended range forecasting of low-frequency oscillations, elucidating the mechanisms for the transitions between the two wave modes. Researchers are using the methods of jump analysis and attractor dimension analysis to examine the long-term satellite records of significant variables (e.g., long wave radiation, and cloud amount), to explore the nature of mode transitions in the atmosphere, and to determine the minimum number of equations needed to describe the main weather variations with a low-order dynamical system. Where feasible they will continue to explore the applicability of the methods of complex dynamical systems analysis to the study of the global earth-system from an integrative viewpoint involving the roles of geochemical cycling and the interactive behavior of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere

The Use of Ships\u27 Protests for Reconstruction of Synoptic-Scale Weather and Tropical Storm Identification in the Late Eighteenth Century

Ships’ protests have been used for centuries as legal documents to record and detail damages and indemnify Captains from fault. We use them in this article, along with data extracted through forensic synoptic analysis (McNally, 1994, 2004) to identify a tropical or subtropical system in the North Atlantic Ocean in 1785. They are shown to be viable sources of meteorological information. By comparing a damaging storm in New England in 1996, which included an offshore tropical system, with one reconstructed in 1785, we demonstrate that the tropical system identified in a ship’s protest played a significant role in the 1785 storm. With both forensic reconstruction and anecdotal evidence, we are able to assess that these storms are remarkably identical. The recurrence rate calculated in previous studies of the 1996 storm is 400–500 years. We suggest that reconstruction of additional years in the 1700s would provide the basis for a reanalysis of recurrence rates, with implications for future insurance and reinsurance rates. The application of the methodology to this new data source can also be used for extension of the hurricane database in the North Atlantic basin, and elsewhere, much further back into history than is currently available

Collaborative Research: Antarctic Climate Reconstruction Utilizing the US ITASE Ice Core Array (2009- 2012)

This award supports a project to reconstruct the past physical and chemical climate of Antarctica, with an emphasis on the region surrounding the Ross Sea Embayment, using \u3e60 ice cores collected in this region by US ITASE and by Australian, Brazilian, Chilean, and New Zealand ITASE teams. The ice core records are annually resolved and exceptionally well dated, and will provide, through the analyses of stable isotopes, major soluble ions and for some trace elements, instrumentally calibrated proxies for past temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, chemistry of the atmosphere, sea ice extent, and volcanic activity. These records will be used to understand the role of solar, volcanic, and human forcing on Antarctic climate and to investigate the character of recent abrupt climate change over Antarctica in the context of broader Southern Hemisphere and global climate variability. The intellectual merit of the project is that ITASE has resulted in an array of ice core records, increasing the spatial resolution of observations of recent Antarctic climate variability by more than an order of magnitude and provides the basis for assessment of past and current change and establishes a framework for monitoring of future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. This comes at a critical time as global record warming and other impacts are noted in the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Peninsula, and on the Antarctic ice sheet. The broader impacts of the project are that Post-doctoral and graduate students involved in the project will benefit from exposure to observational and modeling approaches to climate change research and working meetings to be held at the two collaborating institutions plus other prominent climate change institutions. The results are of prime interest to the public and the media Websites hosted by the two collaborating institutions contain climate change position papers, scientific exchanges concerning current climate change issues, and scientific contribution series

A Wavelet Analysis of Pliopleistocene Climate Indicators: A New View of Periodicity Evolution

Wavelet analysis offers an alternative to Fourier based time-series analysis, and is particularly useful when the amplitudes and periods of dominant cycles are time dependent. We analyse climatic records derived from oxygen isotopic ratios of marine sediment cores with modified Morlet wavelets. We use a normalization of the Morlet wavelets which allows direct correspondence with Fourier analysis. This provides a direct view of the oscillations at various frequencies, and illustrates the nature of the time-dependence of the dominant cycles

Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized

Coastal Change and Beach Ridges along the Northwest Coast of Peru: Image and GIS Analysisof the Chira, Piura, and Colán Beach-Ridge Plains

Since approximately 5200 cal yrs BP, five sets of eight to nine beach ridges were built and preserved along the northwestern Peruvian coastal desert (3o30\u27S-9oS). Potential ridge-building mechanisms in the hyper-arid environment of northwest Peru include El Nifio floods and storms, seismic activity, and sea-level change, as well as more gradualc limate changes that affectedc oastal morphologyI. mage processinga nd GeographicI nformationS ystem (GIS) methods were used to analyze aerial photographs and measure historic coastal patterns along three beach-ridge plains over a 37-year time period. Coastal features were digitized from image mosaics of each ridge plain at different time intervals from 1946 up to 1983. Progradation rates were examined at ridge locations north of the Chira River and Piura River, as well as at the base of ephemeral stream valleys in Colin. The total change in beach area was measured from historic aerial photographs taken at different time intervals. The resulting measurements showed that sediment distributed by El Nifio storms was redeposited along the shoreline within a few years following each event. The difference between the frequency of El Nifio events (currently 2-7 years) and the rate of ridge preservation (1 per 500 years average) suggests that individual ridges may be composites of multiple depositional events, or that ridges result from the rare convergence of multiple processes and conditions. A change in style of ridge formation in all studied beach-ridge sets correlates with, and may be explained by, change in the frequency of El Nifio events at about 3000 cal yrs BP