The Virtues of Frugality - Why cosmological observers should release their data slowly

Cosmologists will soon be in a unique position. Observational noise will gradually be replaced by cosmic variance as the dominant source of uncertainty in an increasing number of observations. We reflect on the ramifications for the discovery and verification of new models. If there are features in the full data set that call for a new model, there will be no subsequent observations to test that model's predictions. We give specific examples of the problem by discussing the pitfalls of model discovery by prior adjustment in the context of dark energy models and inflationary theories. We show how the gradual release of data can mitigate this difficulty, allowing anomalies to be identified, and new models to be proposed and tested. We advocate that observers plan for the frugal release of data from future cosmic variance limited observations.Comment: 5 pages, expanded discussion of Lambda and of blind anlysis, added refs. Matches version to appear in MNRAS Letter

Convergence towards a European strategic culture? A constructivist framework for explaining changing norms.

The article contributes to the debate about the emergence of a European strategic culture to underpin a European Security and Defence Policy. Noting both conceptual and empirical weaknesses in the literature, the article disaggregates the concept of strategic culture and focuses on four types of norms concerning the means and ends for the use of force. The study argues that national strategic cultures are less resistant to change than commonly thought and that they have been subject to three types of learning pressures since 1989: changing threat perceptions, institutional socialization, and mediatized crisis learning. The combined effect of these mechanisms would be a process of convergence with regard to strategic norms prevalent in current EU countries. If the outlined hypotheses can be substantiated by further research the implications for ESDP are positive, especially if the EU acts cautiously in those cases which involve norms that are not yet sufficiently shared across countries

Laser vision : lidar as a transformative tool to advance critical zone science

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19 (2015): 2881-2897, doi:10.5194/hess-19-2881-2015.Observation and quantification of the Earth's surface is undergoing a revolutionary change due to the increased spatial resolution and extent afforded by light detection and ranging (lidar) technology. As a consequence, lidar-derived information has led to fundamental discoveries within the individual disciplines of geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology. These disciplines form the cornerstones of critical zone (CZ) science, where researchers study how interactions among the geosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere shape and maintain the "zone of life", which extends from the top of unweathered bedrock to the top of the vegetation canopy. Fundamental to CZ science is the development of transdisciplinary theories and tools that transcend disciplines and inform other's work, capture new levels of complexity, and create new intellectual outcomes and spaces. Researchers are just beginning to use lidar data sets to answer synergistic, transdisciplinary questions in CZ science, such as how CZ processes co-evolve over long timescales and interact over shorter timescales to create thresholds, shifts in states and fluxes of water, energy, and carbon. The objective of this review is to elucidate the transformative potential of lidar for CZ science to simultaneously allow for quantification of topographic, vegetative, and hydrological processes. A review of 147 peer-reviewed lidar studies highlights a lack of lidar applications for CZ studies as 38 % of the studies were focused in geomorphology, 18 % in hydrology, 32 % in ecology, and the remaining 12 % had an interdisciplinary focus. A handful of exemplar transdisciplinary studies demonstrate lidar data sets that are well-integrated with other observations can lead to fundamental advances in CZ science, such as identification of feedbacks between hydrological and ecological processes over hillslope scales and the synergistic co-evolution of landscape-scale CZ structure due to interactions amongst carbon, energy, and water cycles. We propose that using lidar to its full potential will require numerous advances, including new and more powerful open-source processing tools, exploiting new lidar acquisition technologies, and improved integration with physically based models and complementary in situ and remote-sensing observations. We provide a 5-year vision that advocates for the expanded use of lidar data sets and highlights subsequent potential to advance the state of CZ science.The workshop forming the impetus for this paper was funded by the National Science Foundation (EAR 1406031). Additional funding for the workshop and planning was provided to S. W. Lyon by the Swedish Foundation for International Cooperation in Research and Higher Education (STINT grant no. 2013-5261). A. A. Harpold was supported by an NSF fellowship (EAR 1144894)

Corrigendum to "Laser vision: lidar as a transformative tool to advance critical zone science" published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2881–2897, 2015

© The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19 (2015): 2943, doi:10.5194/hess-19-2943-2015

Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Short- duration (1-3 h) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth's climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for the intensification of these rainfall extremes, the drivers and the impact on flash flooding. Both short- duration and long- duration (\textgreater1 day) rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with the increase in atmospheric moisture (~7% K-1), while in some regions, increases in short- duration extreme rainfall intensities are stronger than expected from moisture increases alone. These stronger local increases are related to feedbacks in convective clouds, but their exact role is uncertain because of the very small scales involved. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large- scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short- duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales and this can further compound with an increase in storm spatial footprint to considerably increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks

Physical education for elementary school children

xv, 694 p; 24 cm