An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior

Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities). Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet

EU-China security cooperation in context. EUI Working Paper RSCAS 2015/31 (European University Institute).

The paper has two main aims. First it seeks to explore whether security cooperation between the EU and China is taking place, and if so, whether it is evenly spread across a number of security dimensions. Second it intends to investigate the underlying motives or drivers that either facilitate or inhibit EU-China security cooperation. Further, it will explain why the EU rather than EU member states is chosen as the unit of analysis, explore the development of EU-China security relations, and illustrate how historical legacies, identity aspects and differences over key issues, such as sovereignty and territorial integrity, affect EU-China security relations. In addition, it will deal with the theoretical and conceptual underpinnings of the study on EU-China security relations, paying particular emphasis to the concepts of diffusion and convergence. Whether or not EU-China security cooperation converges in one of the ten chosen security dimensions will be assessed by the degree of policy conformity the EU and China are able (or unable) to obtain with regard to threat perceptions and policy response thereto. Attention will be devoted to diffusion factors which can affect changes in the perception of threats and response thereof. Among these factors are changes in (geo-political) structure, interests and norms. A further objective of the paper will be to explore whether policy convergence on threat perceptions and response thereto might be a precondition for joint action, or whether practical cooperation can take place without prior policy convergence between the EU and China. The paper will round off with a short section introducing the security dimensions that are being examined in the more detailed study on which this paper is based

Can people guess what happened to others from their reactions?

Are we able to infer what happened to a person from a brief sample of his/her behaviour? It has been proposed that mentalising skills can be used to retrodict as well as predict behaviour, that is, to determine what mental states of a target have already occurred. The current study aimed to develop a paradigm to explore these processes, which takes into account the intricacies of real-life situations in which reasoning about mental states, as embodied in behaviour, may be utilised. A novel task was devised which involved observing subtle and naturalistic reactions of others in order to determine the event that had previously taken place. Thirty-five participants viewed videos of real individuals reacting to the researcher behaving in one of four possible ways, and were asked to judge which of the four ‘scenarios’ they thought the individual was responding to. Their eye movements were recorded to establish the visual strategies used. Participants were able to deduce successfully from a small sample of behaviour which scenario had previously occurred. Surprisingly, looking at the eye region was associated with poorer identification of the scenarios, and eye movement strategy varied depending on the event experienced by the person in the video. This suggests people flexibly deploy their attention using a retrodictive mindreading process to infer events

Security governance and networks: New theoretical perspectives in transatlantic security

The end of the Cold War has not only witnessed the rise of new transnational threats such as terrorism, crime, proliferation and civil war; it has also seen the growing role of non-state actors in the provision of security in Europe and North America. Two concepts in particular have been used to describe these transformations: security governance and networks. However, the differences and potential theoretical utility of these two concepts for the study of contemporary security have so far been under-examined. This article seeks to address this gap. It proposes that security governance can help to explain the transformation of Cold War security structures, whereas network analysis is particularly useful for understanding the relations and interactions between public and private actors in the making and implementation of national and international security policies

Identification of a Kinase Profile that Predicts Chromosome Damage Induced by Small Molecule Kinase Inhibitors

Kinases are heavily pursued pharmaceutical targets because of their mechanistic role in many diseases. Small molecule kinase inhibitors (SMKIs) are a compound class that includes marketed drugs and compounds in various stages of drug development. While effective, many SMKIs have been associated with toxicity including chromosomal damage. Screening for kinase-mediated toxicity as early as possible is crucial, as is a better understanding of how off-target kinase inhibition may give rise to chromosomal damage. To that end, we employed a competitive binding assay and an analytical method to predict the toxicity of SMKIs. Specifically, we developed a model based on the binding affinity of SMKIs to a panel of kinases to predict whether a compound tests positive for chromosome damage. As training data, we used the binding affinity of 113 SMKIs against a representative subset of all kinases (290 kinases), yielding a 113×290 data matrix. Additionally, these 113 SMKIs were tested for genotoxicity in an in vitro micronucleus test (MNT). Among a variety of models from our analytical toolbox, we selected using cross-validation a combination of feature selection and pattern recognition techniques: Kolmogorov-Smirnov/T-test hybrid as a univariate filter, followed by Random Forests for feature selection and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for pattern recognition. Feature selection identified 21 kinases predictive of MNT. Using the corresponding binding affinities, the SVM could accurately predict MNT results with 85% accuracy (68% sensitivity, 91% specificity). This indicates that kinase inhibition profiles are predictive of SMKI genotoxicity. While in vitro testing is required for regulatory review, our analysis identified a fast and cost-efficient method for screening out compounds earlier in drug development. Equally important, by identifying a panel of kinases predictive of genotoxicity, we provide medicinal chemists a set of kinases to avoid when designing compounds, thereby providing a basis for rational drug design away from genotoxicity

Chinese characters reveal impacts of prior experience on very early stages of perception

Visual perception is strongly determined by accumulated experience with the world, which has been shown for shape, color, and position perception, in the field of visuomotor learning, and in neural computation. In addition, visual perception is tuned to statistics of natural scenes. Such prior experience is modulated by neuronal top-down control the temporal properties of which had been subject to recent studies. Here, we deal with these temporal properties and address the question how early in time accumulated past experience can modulate visual perception

Pseudomonas aeruginosa PilY1 Binds Integrin in an RGD- and Calcium-Dependent Manner

PilY1 is a type IV pilus (tfp)-associated protein from the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa that shares functional similarity with related proteins in infectious Neisseria and Kingella species. Previous data have shown that PilY1 acts as a calcium-dependent pilus biogenesis factor necessary for twitching motility with a specific calcium binding site located at amino acids 850–859 in the 1,163 residue protein. In addition to motility, PilY1 is also thought to play an important role in the adhesion of P. aeruginosa tfp to host epithelial cells. Here, we show that PilY1 contains an integrin binding arginine-glycine-aspartic acid (RGD) motif located at residues 619–621 in the PilY1 from the PAK strain of P. aeruginosa; this motif is conserved in the PilY1s from the other P. aeruginosa strains of known sequence. We demonstrate that purified PilY1 binds integrin in vitro in an RGD-dependent manner. Furthermore, we identify a second calcium binding site (amino acids 600–608) located ten residues upstream of the RGD. Eliminating calcium binding from this site using a D608A mutation abolished integrin binding; in contrast, a calcium binding mimic (D608K) preserved integrin binding. Finally, we show that the previously established PilY1 calcium binding site at 851–859 also impacts the protein's association with integrin. Taken together, these data indicate that PilY1 binds to integrin in an RGD- and calcium-dependent manner in vitro. As such, P. aeruginosa may employ these interactions to mediate host epithelial cell binding in vivo

Probing the Links between Political Economy and Non-Traditional Security: Themes, Approaches, and Instruments

This is a pre-print of an article published in International Politics. The definitive publisher-authenticated version of: Hameiri, Shahar, and Lee Jones. "Probing the links between political economy and non-traditional security: Themes, approaches and instruments." International Politics (2015), is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/ip.2015.1In recent decades, the security agenda for states and international organisations has expanded dramatically to include a range of ‘non-traditional’, transnational security issues. It is often suggested that globalisation has been a key driver for the emergence or intensification of these problems, but, surprisingly, little sustained scholarly effort has been made to examine the link between responses to the new security agenda and the changing political economy. This curious neglect largely reflects the mutual blind-spots of the sub-disciplines of International Security Studies and International Political Economy, coupled with the dominance of approaches that tend to neglect economic factors. This special issue, which this article introduces, aims to overcome this significant gap. In particular, it focuses on three key themes: the broad relationship between security and the political economy; what is being secured in the name of security, and how this has changed; and how things are being secured – what modes of governance have emerged to manage security problems. In all of these areas, the contributions point to the crucial role of the state in translating shifting state-economy relations to new security definitions and practices