The tension between fire risk and carbon storage: evaluating U.S. carbon and fire management strategies through ecosystem models

Fire risk and carbon storage are related environmental issues because fire reduction results in carbon storage through the buildup of woody vegetation, and stored carbon is a fuel for fires. The sustainability of the U.S. carbon sink and the extent of fire activity in the next 100 yr depend in part on the type and effectiveness of fire reduction employed. Previous studies have bracketed the range of dynamics from continued fire reduction to the complete failure of fire reduction activities. To improve these estimates, it is necessary to explicitly account for fire reduction in terrestrial models. A new fire reduction submodel that estimates the spatiotemporal pattern of reduction across the United States was developed using gridded data on biomass, climate, land-use, population, and economic factors. To the authors’ knowledge, it is the first large-scale, gridded fire model that explicitly accounts for fire reduction. The model was calibrated to 1° × 1° burned area statistics [Global Burnt Area 2000 Project (GBA-2000)] and compared favorably to three important diagnostics. The model was then implemented in a spatially explicit ecosystem model and used to analyze 1620 scenarios of future fire risk and fire reduction strategies. Under scenarios of climate change and urbanization, burned area and carbon emissions both increased in scenarios where fire reduction efforts were not adjusted to match new patterns of fire risk. Fuel reducing management strategies reduced burned area and fire risk, but also limited carbon storage. These results suggest that to promote carbon storage and minimize fire risk in the future, fire reduction efforts will need to be increased and spatially adjusted and will need to employ a mixture of fuel-reducing and non-fuel-reducing strategies

The shared evaporation history of three sub-Neptunes spanning the radius-period valley of a Hyades star

We model the evaporation histories of the three planets around K2-136, a K-dwarf in the Hyades open cluster with an age of 700 Myr. The star hosts three transiting planets, with radii of 1.0, 3.0 and 1.5 Earth radii, where the middle planet lies above the radius-period valley and the inner and outer planets are below. We use an XMM-Newton observation to measure the XUV radiation environment of the planets, finding that the X-ray activity of K2-136 is lower than predicted by models but typical of similar Hyades members. We estimate the internal structure of each planet, and model their evaporation histories using a range of structure and atmospheric escape formulations. While the precise X-ray irradiation history of the system may be uncertain, we exploit the fact that the three planets must have shared the same history. We find that the Earth-sized K2-136b is most likely rocky, with any primordial gaseous envelope being lost within a few Myr. The sub-Neptune, K2-136c, has an envelope contributing 1-1.7% of its mass that is stable against evaporation thanks to the high mass of its rocky core, whilst the super-Earth, K2-136d, must have a mass at the upper end of the allowed range in order to retain any of its envelope. Our results are consistent with all three planets beginning as sub-Neptunes that have since been sculpted by atmospheric evaporation to their current states, stripping the envelope from planet b and removing most from planet d whilst preserving planet c above the radius-period valley.Comment: Accepted for publication on MNRA

Supersonic Crossflow Transition Control in Ground and Flight Tests

This paper describes the use of distributed-roughness-element (DRE) patterns along a Mach 2 design swept-wing leading edge to increase the laminar flow extent and thereby reduce drag. One swept-wing model was tested in a supersonic wind tunnel as well as beneath a supersonic flight vehicle. Wing model surface data acquired during these tests included pressures, temperatures, and boundary-layer transition locations. Similarities and differences in experimental results are discussed. While wind tunnel and flight results show some differences, the wind tunnel results still provide key insights necessary for understanding how to design effective DRE patterns for use in flight applications. Experimental results demonstrate a DRE flow control effect observed in flight similar to that observed in the wind tunnel. Finally, a different perspective is discussed concerning what flow control role RE patterns might perform in any future swept-wing laminar flow control applications

Observations of exoplanetary systems at x-ray wavelengths

For planets with very small semi-major axes, the implications of residing so close to a star can be wide ranging. One of the most pertinent is the effect of the X-ray and extreme ultraviolet stellar emission, which can drive significant escape of material from close-in planets' upper atmospheres. For some smaller planets, the escape processes are sufficient to substantially evolve, and in some cases completely remove, any H/He envelope they were born with. In my first study, I derive new empirical relations in order to perform the necessary extrapolation of the X-ray emission to the unobservable EUV energy band. In addition to inferring the properties of the XUV environment of the six planets in the sample and estimating their current mass loss rates, I make the first successful detection of a planet transit with the Optical Monitor on XMM-Newton for the hot Jupiter WASP-80b. The resulting near ultraviolet transit depth shows a hint of being shallower than is seen at visible wavelengths. The photoevaporation valley is one of the observed effects of escape processes on the exoplanet population. I consider planets from two nearby systems that lie either side of this valley to investigate how XUV irradiation has affected each, both now and in the past. I investigate planets from the young open cluster Praesepe, where significant XUV irradiation is still ongoing. All of the planets in that study lie close to either the photoevaporation valley, or the other main population feature caused by photoevaporation: the Neptunian desert. I assess their past, present and possible future atmospheric evolution. The final two studies concern the same system. HD189733 hosts the closest transiting hot Jupiter to Earth. Using one of the largest collections of XMM-Newton observations for any late-type star, I make the first unambiguous detection of a planet transit at X-ray wavelengths. The deep transit reveals a large region of escaping planetary material leading the planet in its orbit. Finally, I investigate stellar activity from the system, predominately in the context of past claims of starplanet interactions. I identify new ares in the system, including some emanating from the previously-assumed-quiet wide stellar companion, and observe long-term variation possibly associated with a Solar-like activity cycle. However, I find no evidence of enhanced X-ray activity phased with the planet's orbit, and that evidence for the spinning up of star A by the planet is much weaker than previously claimed

The XUV irradiation and likely atmospheric escape of the super-Earth π\pi Men c

$\pi$ Men c was recently announced as the first confirmed exoplanet from the TESS mission. The planet has a radius of just 2 R$_{\rm\oplus}$ and it transits a nearby Sun-like star of naked-eye brightness, making it the ideal target for atmospheric characterisation of a super-Earth. Here we analyse archival $\textit{ROSAT}$ and $\textit{Swift}$ observations of $\pi$ Men in order to determine the X-ray and extreme-ultraviolet irradiation of the planetary atmosphere and assess whether atmospheric escape is likely to be on-going. We find that $\pi$ Men has a similar level of X-ray emission to the Sun, with $L_{\rm X}/L_{\rm bol} = (4.84^{+0.92}_{-0.84})\times10^{-7}$. However, due to its small orbital separation, the high-energy irradiation of the super-Earth is around 2000 times stronger than suffered by the Earth. We show that this is sufficient to drive atmospheric escape at a rate greater than that readily detected from the warm Neptune GJ 436b. Furthermore, we estimate $\pi$ Men to be four times brighter at Ly $\alpha$ than GJ 436. Given the small atmospheric scale heights of super-Earths, together with their potentially cloudy atmospheres, and the consequent difficulty in measuring transmission spectra, we conclude that ultraviolet absorption by material escaping $\pi$ Men c presents the best opportunity currently to determine the atmospheric composition of a super-Earth.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables; accepted for publication in MNRAS Letter

Testing metallicity indicators at z~1.4 with the gravitationally lensed galaxy CASSOWARY 20

We present X-shooter observations of CASSOWARY 20 (CSWA 20), a star-forming (SFR ~6 Msol/yr) galaxy at z=1.433, magnified by a factor of 11.5 by the gravitational lensing produced by a massive foreground galaxy at z=0.741. We analysed the integrated physical properties of the HII regions of CSWA 20 using temperature- and density-sensitive emission lines. We find the abundance of oxygen to be ~1/7 of solar, while carbon is ~50 times less abundant than in the Sun. The unusually low C/O ratio may be an indication of a particularly rapid timescale of chemical enrichment. The wide wavelength coverage of X-shooter gives us access to five different methods for determining the metallicity of CSWA 20, three based on emission lines from HII regions and two on absorption features formed in the atmospheres of massive stars. All five estimates are in agreement, within the factor of ~2 uncertainty of each method. The interstellar medium of CSWA 20 only partially covers the star-forming region as viewed from our direction; in particular, absorption lines from neutrals and first ions are exceptionally weak. We find evidence for large-scale outflows of the interstellar medium (ISM) with speeds of up 750 km/s, similar to the values measured in other high-z galaxies sustaining much higher rates of star formation.Comment: 18 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Grassland Resources and Protections in the Yellow River Source Zone on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

This paper summarises resources and protections of the Yellow River Source Zone on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A concerted effort has been made to address concerns for overgrazing on the alpine steppe and alpine meadow landscapes in the source zone of the Yellow River. An assessment of the impacts of overgrazing includes consideration of the role of small mammals (on the one hand they are considered as a critical ecosystem engineer, on the other they are perceived as a major threatening pest). Analyzed in this paper are management options in the restoration of degraded grasslands

Validation of Quasi-Invariant Ice Cloud Radiative Quantities with MODIS Satellite-Based Cloud Property Retrievals

Similarity relations applied to ice cloud radiance calculations are theoretically analyzed and numerically validated. If t(1v) and t(1vg) are conserved where t is optical thickness, v the single-scattering albedo, and g the asymmetry factor, it is possible that substantially different phase functions may give rise to similar radiances in both conservative and non-conservative scattering cases, particularly in the case of large optical thicknesses. In addition to theoretical analysis, this study uses operational ice cloud optical thickness retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Level 2 Collection5 (C5) and Collection 6 (C6) cloud property products to verify radiative similarity relations. It is found that, if the MODIS C5 and C6 ice cloud optical thickness values are multiplied by their respective (1wg)factors, the resultant products referred to as the effective optical thicknesses become similar with their ratio values around unity. Furthermore, the ratios of the C5 and C6 ice cloud effective optical thicknesses display an angular variation pattern similar to that of the corresponding ice cloud phase function ratios. The MODIS C5 and C6 values of ice cloud similarity parameter, defined as [(1w)(1(exp. 1/2)wg)]12, also tend to be similar