Tribalism as a Minimax-Regret Strategy: Evidence of Voting in the 2007 Kenyan Elections

Although many studies find that voting in Africa approximates an ethnic census in that voting is primarily along ethnic lines, hardly any of the studies have sought to explain ethnic voting following a rational choice framework. Using data of voter opinions from a survey conducted two weeks before the December 2007 Kenyan elections, we find that the expected benefits associated with a win by each of the presidential candidates varied significantly across voters from different ethnic groups. We hypothesize that decision to participate in the elections was influenced by the expected benefits as per the minimax-regret voting model. We test the predictions of this model using data of voter turnout in the December 2007 elections and find that turnout across ethnic groups varied systematically with expected benefits. The results suggest that individuals participated in the elections primarily to avoid the maximum regret should a candidate from another ethnic group win. The results therefore offer credence to the minimax regret model as proposed by Ferejohn and Fiorina (1974) and refute the Downsian expected utility model.

Why Did Abolishing Fees Not Increase Public School Enrollment in Kenya?- Working Paper 271

A large empirical literature has shown that user fees significantly deter public service utilization in developing countries. While most of these results reflect partial equilibrium analysis, we find that the nationwide abolition of public school fees in Kenya in 2003 led to no increase in net public enrollment rates, but rather a dramatic shift toward private schooling. Results suggest this divergence between partial- and general-equilibrium effects is partially explained by social interactions: the entry of poorer pupils into free education contributed to the exit of their more affluent peers.

Human Capital Externalities and Private Returns to Education in Kenya

We use survey data of full-time workers in Kenya to analyse the effect of human capital externalities on earnings and private returns to education. The estimation results show that education human capital generally associates with positive externalities, indicating that an increase in education benefits all workers. However, the results reveal that men benefit more from women's education than women do from men's schooling. The effects of human capital externalities on private returns to schooling are shown to vary substantially between rural and urban areas and across primary and higher levels of education.

Determinants of poverty in Kenya : a household level analysis

poverty;statistical analysis;measurement;Kenya;household surveys

Voting in Kenya: Putting Ethnicity in Perspective

Do Kenyans vote according to ethnic identities or policy interests? Based on results from a national probability sample survey conducted in the first week of December 2007, this article shows that, while ethnic origins drive voting patterns, elections in Kenya amount to more than a mere ethnic census. We start by reviewing how Kenyans see themselves, which is mainly in non-ethnic terms. We then report on how they see others, whom they fear will organize politically along ethnic lines. People therefore vote defensively in ethnic blocs, but not exclusively. In Decem- ber 2007, they also took particular policy issues into account, including living standards, corruption and majimbo (federalism). We demonstrate that the relative weight that individuals grant to ethnic and policy voting depends in good part on how they define their group identities, with ethnics engaging in identity voting and non-ethnics giving more weight to interests and issues

Polarity in Phonology

Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Meeting of the Berkeley Linguistics Society (1979), pp. 419-42

The influence of decentralisation on community development in Gasabo district of Rwanda

This study investigated the influence of decentralisation on community development in the Gasabo district of Rwanda. It was based on the assumption that the participation of citizens in decision-making, planning based on local needs and priorities and the implementation of development programmes associated with the decentralisation policy can improve service delivery and result in community development. It is vital that the decentralization policy be well understood so that appropriate strategies may be adopted and implemented with the aim of maximising advantages associated with it. This study provides, in addition to a literature review, a brief historical background of the evolution and transformation of governance in Rwanda. The country‟s system of governance as well as the challenges it has encountered along the way through different régimes are briefly addressed. Also, the legal and regulatory framework of the decentralization policy and strategies adopted and mechanisms of resource transfer are explained. The study used both qualitative and quantitative methods. Primary and secondary data were used in analysing the influence of decentralisation on community development in the Gasabo district of Rwanda. Primary data was collected through survey questionnaires, interviews and focus group discussions, while secondary data were gathered through a literature survey of relevant textbooks, peer-reviewed journals, reports and legislation. The research findings indicated that in the Gasabo district, decentralisation has contributed significantly towards improving governance aspects such as accountability, and citizen participation in development programmes, which are prerequisite factors of development. Concerning the planning process, the research found that the district development plan (DDP) was crafted through drawing its priorities from the national development plans embedded in the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategies (EDPRS) and Rwanda‟s Vision 2020. However, despite the existence of the Joint Action Development Forum (JADF), created to join the development plans of development partners to the DDP, testimonies from development partners revealed that their relationship with the district is characterised by the lack of frank collaboration, leading to their not being fully associated in the planning process. This research also found that the decentralisation policy has contributed only to a limited extent to the improvement of service delivery in Gasabo district. It was observed that effective service delivery is still hampered by the lack of skilled employees, especially in the areas of education, health and engineering, a budget insufficient for the effective implementation of development projects in such a way as to satisfy the expectations of beneficiaries. In view of the aforementioned findings, the study recommends that the central government intervene in training district tax officers regarding mechanisms and strategies of maximising tax collection to draw sufficient funds to carry out development plans. Through building their capacity, the imbalance between the responsibilities and means allocated for carrying out their achievement can be progressively reduced. Furthermore, to prevent development from taking place in a random manner, district authorities should receive technical support from the central government through linking the local planning process to national poverty reduction efforts. The annual performance contract system needs to be strengthened and monitored to evaluate the implementation of district development plans so as to prevent any kind of poor leadership performance, with the aim of optimising available resources

The high return to private schooling in a low-income country

Existing studies from the United States, Latin America, and Asia provide scant evidence that private schools dramatically improve academic performance relative to public schools. Using data from Kenya—a poor country with weak public institutions—we find a large effect of private schooling on test scores, equivalent to one full standard deviation. This finding is robust to endogenous sorting of more able pupils into private schools. The magnitude of the effect dwarfs the impact of any rigorously tested intervention to raise performance within public schools. Furthermore, nearly twothirds of private schools operate at lower cost than the median government school