Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation

AbstractAustralian governments face the twin challenges of dealing with extreme weather-related disasters (such as floods and bushfires) and adapting to the impacts of climate change. These challenges are connected, so any response would benefit from a more integrated approach across and between the different levels of government.This report summarises the findings of an NCCARF-funded project that addresses this problem.The project undertook a three-way comparative case study of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. It collected data from the official inquiry reports into each of these events, and conducted new interviews and workshops with key stakeholders. The findings of this project included recommendations that range from the conceptual to the practical. First, it was argued that a reconceptualization of terms such as ‘community’ and ‘resilience’ was necessary to allow for more tailored responses to varying circumstances. Second, it was suggested that the high level of uncertainty inherent in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation requires a more iterative approach to policymaking and planning. Third, some specific institutional reforms were proposed that included: 1) a new funding mechanism that would encourage collaboration between and across different levels of government, as well as promoting partnerships with business and the community; 2) improving community engagement through new resilience grants run by local councils; 3) embedding climate change researchers within disaster risk management agencies to promote institutional learning; and, 4) creating an inter-agency network that encourages collaboration between organisations.Please cite this report as: Howes, M, Grant-Smith, D, Reis, K, Bosomworth, K, Tangney, P, Heazle, M, McEvoy, D, Burton, P 2013 Rethinking disaster risk management and climate change adaptation, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 63.Australian governments face the twin challenges of dealing with extreme weather-related disasters (such as floods and bushfires) and adapting to the impacts of climate change. These challenges are connected, so any response would benefit from a more integrated approach across and between the different levels of government.This report summarises the findings of an NCCARF-funded project that addresses this problem.The project undertook a three-way comparative case study of the 2009 Victorian bushfires, the 2011 Perth Hills bushfires, and the 2011 Brisbane floods. It collected data from the official inquiry reports into each of these events, and conducted new interviews and workshops with key stakeholders. The findings of this project included recommendations that range from the conceptual to the practical. First, it was argued that a reconceptualization of terms such as ‘community’ and ‘resilience’ was necessary to allow for more tailored responses to varying circumstances. Second, it was suggested that the high level of uncertainty inherent in disaster risk management and climate change adaptation requires a more iterative approach to policymaking and planning. Third, some specific institutional reforms were proposed that included: 1) a new funding mechanism that would encourage collaboration between and across different levels of government, as well as promoting partnerships with business and the community; 2) improving community engagement through new resilience grants run by local councils; 3) embedding climate change researchers within disaster risk management agencies to promote institutional learning; and, 4) creating an inter-agency network that encourages collaboration between organisations.&nbsp

Comments on 1/16 BPS Quantum States and Classical Configurations

We formulate the problem of counting 1/16 BPS states of N = 4 Yang Mills theory as the enumeration of the local cohomology of an operator acting on holomorphic fields on C^2. We study aspects of the enumeration of this cohomology at finite N, especially for operators constructed only out of products of covariant derivatives of scalar fields, and compare our results to the states obtained from the quantization of giant gravitons and dual giants. We physically interpret the holomorphic fields that enter our conditions for supersymmetry semi-classically by deriving a set of Bogomolnyi equations for 1/16-BPS bosonic field configurations in N = 4 Yang Mills theory on R^4 with reality properties and boundary conditions appropriate to radial quantization. An arbitrary solution to these equations in the free theory is parameterized by holomorphic data on C^2 and lifts to a nearby solution of the interacting Bogomolnyi equations only when the constraints equivalent to Q cohomology are obeyed.Comment: 61 page

The regional electricity generation mix in Scotland: A portfolio selection approach

Standalone levelised cost assessments of electricity supply options miss an important contribution that renewable and non-fossil fuel technologies can make to the electricity portfolio: that of reducing the variability of electricity costs, and their potentially damaging impact upon economic activity. Portfolio theory applications to the electricity generation mix have shown that renewable technologies, their costs being largely uncorrelated with non-renewable technologies, can offer such benefits. We look at the existing Scottish generation mix and examine drivers of changes out to 2020. We assess recent scenarios for the Scottish generation mix in 2020 against mean-variance efficient portfolios of electricity-generating technologies. Each of the scenarios studied implies a portfolio cost of electricity that is between 22% and 38% higher than the portfolio cost of electricity in 2007. These scenarios prove to be “inefficient” in the sense that, for example, lower variance portfolios can be obtained without increasing portfolio costs, typically by expanding the share of renewables. As part of extensive sensitivity analysis, we find that Wave and Tidal technologies can contribute to lower risk electricity portfolios, while not increasing portfolio cost.Electricity generation mix, portfolio theory, regional energy policy

Construction of a multi-sectoral inter-regional IO and SAM database for the UK

The purpose of this paper is to explain the construction of the input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) databases for the inter-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the UK developed as part of the project 'An Analysis of National and Devolved Economic Policies' undertaken as part of the ESRC Devolution and Constitutional Change research programme. We identify four main regions of the UK: Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England. However, in Section 2, we begin by constructing a set of two-region accounts where we focus on Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland with the other aggregate 'region' labelled 'rest of the UK' or RUK. Then, in Section 3, we extend to a three-region framework where we identify Scotland, Wales and RUK. Finally, in Section 4, we extend further to construct the full 4-region IO and SAM

The Importance of Revenue Sharing for the Local Economic Impacts of a Renewable Energy Project: A Social Accounting Matrix Approach

As demand for electricity from renewable energy sources grows, there is increasing interest, and public and financial support, for local communities to become involved in the development of renewable energy projects. In the UK, “Community Benefit” payments are the most common financial link between renewable energy projects and local communities. These are “goodwill” payments from the project developer for the community to spend as it wishes. However, if an ownership stake in the renewable energy project were possible, receipts to the local community would potentially be considerably higher. The local economic impacts of these receipts are difficult to quantify using traditional Input-Output techniques, but can be more appropriately handled within a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework where income flows between agents can be traced in detail. We use a SAM for the Shetland Islands to evaluate the potential local economic and employment impact of a large onshore wind energy project proposed for the Islands. Sensitivity analysis is used to show how the local impact varies with: the level of Community Benefit payments; the portion of intermediate inputs being sourced from within the local economy; and the level of any local community ownership of the project. By a substantial margin, local ownership confers the greatest economic impacts for the local community.renewable energy; rural economic impacts; revenue sharing; community ownership

The Rebound Effect with Energy Production: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis

Rebound is the extent to which improvements in energy efficiency fail to translate fully into reductions in energy use because of the implicit fall in the price of energy, when measured in efficiency units. This paper discusses aspects of the rebound effect that are introduced once energy is considered as a domestically produced commodity. A partial equilibrium approach is adopted in order to incorporate both energy use and production in a conceptually tractable way. The paper explores analytically two interesting results revealed in previous numerical simulations. The first is the possibility that energy use could fall by more than the implied improvement in efficiency. This corresponds to negative rebound. The second is the finding that the short-run rebound value can be greater than the corresponding long-run value.Energy demand, energy efficiency, rebound, partial equilibrium

Developing site-specific guidelines for orchard soils based on bioaccessibility – Can it be done?

Horticultural land within the periurban fringe of NZ towns and cities increasingly is being developed for residential subdivision. Recent surveys have shown that concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and ΣDDT (sum of DDT and its degradation products DDE and DDD) in such soils can exceed criteria protective of human health.¹ Soil ingestion is a key exposure pathway for non-volatile contaminants in soil. Currently in NZ, site-specific risk assessments and the derivation of soil guidelines protective of human health assume that all of the contaminant present in the soil is available for uptake and absorption by the human gastrointestinal tract. This assumption can overestimate health risks and has implications for the remediation of contaminated sites.² In comparison, the bioavailability of contaminants is considered when estimating exposure via dermal absorption and by ingestion of home-grown produce.³ Dermal absorption factors and plant uptake factors are included in the calculations for estimating exposures via these routes

Scotland’s Green Jobs Conundrum : How to Better Measure the Employment Impact of a Low Carbon Future

The political ambition to turn Scotland into a low carbon economy, powered by renewable energy technologies, is driven, in part, by the belief that such a transformation will reindustrialise the country and generate tens of thousands of skilled jobs. This paper reviews Scottish energy strategy since 1999 and notes the stronger policy link in recent years between investment in low carbon and renewable energy and related employment growth. The evolution of this strategy has culminated in explicit, ambitious targets for green jobs created. However, defining low carbon and renewable employment is complex. Three recent estimates of such employment in Scotland came to quite disparate conclusions. There is an underlying problem: the current lack of appropriate disaggregation of such employment categories in the economic accounts. Were such disaggregation available, it would provide robust and reproducible measures of employment in defined activities. It would also identify the causal drivers of measured (current) employment and where these drivers lie on “temporary-long term” or “domestic-global” axes. Economic accounts, disaggregated in this way, would help demonstrate whether specific policy interventions are delivering the jobs forecast. In our view, greater conceptual clarity and a more significant allocation of resources need to be devoted to the measurement of activity and employment in low carbon and renewable activities in Scotland to allow any meaningful evaluation of strategy in this area