The determinants of election to the United Nations Security Council

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-013-0096-4.The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is the foremost international body responsible for the maintenance of international peace and security. Members vote on issues of global importance and consequently receive perks—election to the UNSC predicts, for instance, World Bank and IMF loans. But who gets elected to the UNSC? Addressing this question empirically is not straightforward as it requires a model that allows for discrete choices at the regional and international levels; the former nominates candidates while the latter ratifies them. Using an original multiple discrete choice model to analyze a dataset of 180 elections from 1970 to 2005, we find that UNSC election appears to derive from a compromise between the demands of populous countries to win election more frequently and a norm of giving each country its turn. We also find evidence that richer countries from the developing world win election more often, while involvement in warfare lowers election probability. By contrast, development aid does not predict election

Exome Sequencing for Prenatal Detection of Genetic Abnormalities in Fetal Ultrasound Anomalies: An Economic Evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: In light of the prospective Prenatal Assessment of Genomes and Exomes (PAGE) study, this paper aimed to determine the additional costs of using exome sequencing (ES) alongside or in place of chromosomal microarray (CMA) in a fetus with an identified congenital anomaly. METHODS: A decision tree was populated using data from a prospective cohort of women undergoing invasive diagnostic testing. Four testing strategies were evaluated: CMA, ES, CMA followed by ES ("stepwise"); CMA and ES combined. RESULTS: When ES is priced at GBP 2,100 (EUR 2,407/USD 2,694), performing ES alone prenatally would cost a further GBP 31,410 (EUR 36,001/USD 40,289) per additional genetic diagnosis, whereas the stepwise would cost a further GBP 24,657 (EUR 28,261/USD 31,627) per additional genetic diagnosis. When ES is priced at GBP 966 (EUR 1,107/USD 1,239), performing ES alone prenatally would cost a further GBP 11,532 (EUR 13,217/USD 14,792) per additional genetic diagnosis, whereas the stepwise would cost a further additional GBP 11,639 (EUR 13,340/USD 14,929) per additional genetic diagnosis. The sub-group analysis suggests that performing stepwise on cases indicative of multiple anomalies at ultrasound scan (USS) compared to cases indicative of a single anomaly, is more cost-effective compared to using ES alone. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Performing ES alongside CMA is more cost-effective than ES alone, which can potentially lead to improvements in pregnancy management. The direct effects of test results on pregnancy outcomes were not examined; therefore, further research is recommended to examine changes on the projected incremental cost-effectiveness ratios

Use of MRI in the diagnosis of fetal brain abnormalities in utero (MERIDIAN): a multicentre, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In-utero MRI (iuMRI) has shown promise as an adjunct to ultrasound but the comparative diagnostic performance has been poorly defined. We aimed to assess whether the diagnostic accuracy and confidence of the prenatal diagnosis of fetal brain abnormalities is improved with iuMRI and assess the clinical impact and patient acceptability of iuMRI. METHODS: We did a multicentre, prospective, cohort study in the UK, at 16 fetal medicine centres, of pregnant women aged 16 years or older whose fetus had a brain abnormality detected by ultrasound at a gestational age of 18 weeks or more, had no contraindications to iuMRI, and consented to enter the study. Women carrying a fetus suspected of having a brain anomaly on ultrasound had iuMRI done within 14 days of ultrasound. The findings were reviewed by two independent panels and used to estimate diagnostic accuracy and confidence by comparison with outcome diagnoses. Changes in diagnosis, prognosis, and clinical management brought about by iuMRI and patient acceptability were assessed. FINDINGS: Participants were recruited between July 29, 2011, and Aug 31, 2014. The cohort was subdivided by gestation into the 18 weeks to less than 24 weeks fetus cohort (n=369) and into the 24 weeks or older fetus cohort (n=201). Diagnostic accuracy was improved by 23% (95% CI 18-27) in the 18 weeks to less than 24 weeks group and 29% (23-36) in the 24 weeks and older group (p<0·0001 for both groups). The overall diagnostic accuracy was 68% for ultrasound and 93% for iuMRI (difference 25%, 95% CI 21-29). Dominant diagnoses were reported with high confidence on ultrasound in 465 (82%) of 570 cases compared with 544 (95%) of 570 cases on iuMRI. IuMRI provided additional diagnostic information in 387 (49%) of 783 cases, changed prognostic information in at least 157 (20%), and led to changes in clinical management in more than one in three cases. IuMRI also had high patient acceptability with at least 95% of women saying they would have an iuMRI study if a future pregnancy were complicated by a fetal brain abnormality. INTERPRETATION: iuMRI improves diagnostic accuracy and confidence for fetal brain anomalies and leads to management changes in a high proportion of cases. This finding, along with the high patient acceptability, leads us to propose that any fetus with a suspected brain abnormality on ultrasound should have iuMRI to better inform counselling and management decisions. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

MCT8 expression in human fetal cerebral cortex is reduced in severe intrauterine growth restriction

The importance of the thyroid hormone (TH) transporter, monocarboxylate transporter 8 (MCT8), to human neurodevelopment is highlighted by findings of severe global neurological impairment in subjects with MCT8 (SLC16A2) mutations. Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), usually due to uteroplacental failure, is associated with milder neurodevelopmental deficits, which have been partly attributed to dysregulated TH action in utero secondary to reduced circulating fetal TH concentrations and decreased cerebral thyroid hormone receptor expression. We postulate that altered MCT8 expression is implicated in this pathophysiology; therefore, in this study, we sought to quantify changes in cortical MCT8 expression with IUGR. First, MCT8 immunohistochemistry was performed on occipital and parietal cerebral cortex sections obtained from appropriately grown for gestational age (AGA) human fetuses between 19 weeks of gestation and term. Secondly, MCT8 immunostaining in the occipital cortex of stillborn IUGR human fetuses at 24–28 weeks of gestation was objectively compared with that in the occipital cortex of gestationally matched AGA fetuses. Fetuses demonstrated widespread MCT8 expression in neurons within the cortical plate and subplate, in the ventricular and subventricular zones, in the epithelium of the choroid plexus and ependyma, and in microvessel wall. When complicated by IUGR, fetuses showed a significant fivefold reduction in the percentage area of cortical plate immunostained for MCT8 compared with AGA fetuses (P<0.05), but there was no significant difference in the proportion of subplate microvessels immunostained. Cortical MCT8 expression was negatively correlated with the severity of IUGR indicated by the brain:liver weight ratios (r(2)=0.28; P<0.05) at post-mortem. Our results support the hypothesis that a reduction in MCT8 expression in the IUGR fetal brain could further compromise TH-dependent brain development

A review of the methodological features of systematic reviews in maternal medicine

Background In maternal medicine, research evidence is scattered making it difficult to access information for clinical decision making. Systematic reviews of good methodological quality are essential to provide valid inferences and to produce usable evidence summaries to guide management. This review assesses the methodological features of existing systematic reviews in maternal medicine, comparing Cochrane and non-Cochrane reviews in maternal medicine. Methods Medline, Embase, Database of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) were searched for relevant reviews published between 2001 and 2006. We selected those reviews in which a minimum of two databases were searched and the primary outcome was related to the maternal condition. The selected reviews were assessed for information on framing of question, literature search and methods of review. Results Out of 2846 citations, 68 reviews were selected. Among these, 39 (57%) were Cochrane reviews. Most of the reviews (50/68, 74%) evaluated therapeutic interventions. Overall, 54/68 (79%) addressed a focussed question. Although 64/68 (94%) reviews had a detailed search description, only 17/68 (25%) searched without language restriction. 32/68 (47%) attempted to include unpublished data and 11/68 (16%) assessed for the risk of missing studies quantitatively. The reviews had deficiencies in the assessment of validity of studies and exploration for heterogeneity. When compared to Cochrane reviews, other reviews were significantly inferior in specifying questions (OR 20.3, 95% CI 1.1–381.3, p = 0.04), framing focussed questions (OR 30.9, 95% CI 3.7- 256.2, p = 0.001), use of unpublished data (OR 5.6, 95% CI 1.9–16.4, p = 0.002), assessment for heterogeneity (OR 38.1, 95%CI 2.1, 688.2, p = 0.01) and use of meta-analyses (OR 3.7, 95% CI 1.3–10.8, p = 0.02). Conclusion This study identifies areas which have a strong influence on maternal morbidity and mortality but lack good quality systematic reviews. Overall quality of the existing systematic reviews was variable. Cochrane reviews were of better quality as compared to other reviews. There is a need for good quality systematic reviews to inform practice in maternal medicine