Maximum warning times for imminent volcanic eruptions

Accelerations in seismicity are important precursors to eruptions at volcanoes reawakening after extended repose intervals. These have previously been quantified for subduction-zone settings in terms of the linkage of crustal faults by shearing. Introducing a damage-mechanics criterion for the weakening of rock between major fractures, the model is here modified for failure in tension, consistent with conditions in crust surrounding a pressurized magma reservoir. The results indicate that final accelerations develop over similar to 2-3 weeks at tensile strains of (4.5 +/- 3.2)x10(-3). Since a week or more is required to identify an accelerating trend, seismic forecasts of eruptions after long repose are unlikely to be reliable more than days in advance. Improvements will require the integration of additional precursors or extension of the model to earlier stages of fracture growth in stressed crust

Deformation regime and long-term precursors to eruption at large calderas: Rabaul, Papua New Guinea

Eruptions at large calderas are normally preceded by variable rates of unrest that continue for decades or more. A classic example is the 1994 eruption of Rabaul caldera, in Papua New Guinea, which began after 23 years of surface uplift and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismicity at rates that changed unevenly with time by an order of magnitude. Although the VT event rate and uplift rate peaked in 1983–1985, eruptions only began a decade later and followed just 27 hours of anomalous changes in precursory signal. Here we argue that the entire 23 years of unrest belongs to a single sequence of damage accumulation in the crust and that, in 1991–1992, the crust's response to applied stress changed from quasi-elastic (elastic deformation with minor fault movement) to inelastic (deformation predominantly by fault movement alone). The change in behaviour yields limiting trends in the variation of VT event rate with deformation and can be quantified with a mean-field model for an elastic crust that contains a dispersed population of small faults. The results show that identifying the deformation regime for elastic–brittle crust provides new criteria for using precursory time series to evaluate the potential for eruption. They suggest that, in the quasi-elastic regime, short-term increases in rates of deformation and VT events are unreliable indicators of an imminent eruption, but that, in the inelastic regime, the precursory rates may follow hyperbolic increases with time and offer the promise of developing forecasts of eruption as much as months beforehand

Fecasting volcanic eruptions: beyond the Failure Forecast Method

Volcano-tectonic seismicity and ground movement are the most reliable precursors to eruptions after extended intervals of repose, as well as to flank eruptions from frequently active volcanoes. Their behavior is consistent with elastic-brittle failure of the crust before a new pathway is opened to allow magma ascent. A modified physical model shows that precursory time series are governed by a parent relation between faulting and elastic deformation in extension, subject to independent constraints on the rate of crustal loading with time. The results yield deterministic criteria that can be incorporated into existing operational procedures for evaluating the probability of crustal failure and, hence, levels of alert during an emergency. They also suggest that the popular failure forecast method for using precursory time series to forecast eruptions is a particular form of the parent elastic-brittle model when rates of stress supply are constant, and that magma transport and crustal fracturing during unrest tend toward conditions for minimizing rates of energy loss

Progressive approach to eruption at Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy

Unrest at large calderas rarely ends in eruption, encouraging vulnerable communities to perceive emergency warnings of volcanic activity as false alarms. A classic example is the Campi Flegrei caldera in southern Italy, where three episodes of major uplift since 1950 have raised its central district by about 3 m without an eruption. Individual episodes have conventionally been treated as independent events, so that only data from an ongoing episode are considered pertinent to evaluating eruptive potential. An implicit assumption is that the crust relaxes accumulated stress after each episode. Here we apply a new model of elastic-brittle failure to test the alternative view that successive episodes promote a long-term accumulation of stress in the crust. The results provide the first quantitative evidence that Campi Flegrei is evolving towards conditions more favourable to eruption and identify field tests for predictions on how the caldera will behave during future unrest

The 1831 eruption of Babuyan Claro that never happened: has the source of the one of the largest volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century been misattributed?

The 1831 eruption of Babuyan Claro in the Philippines is regarded as one of the most significant volcanic climate forcing events of the nineteenth century. Modern databases have assigned the eruption a VEI of 4? and Magnitude of 4.7. Our analysis of historical sources, however, suggests that there was no such eruption in 1831 and that this date is the result of a misinterpretation of a traveller’s account which had been taken to be the primary source. We therefore suggest that the 1831 eruption is a false event. In this case, one or more eruptions elsewhere must have been responsible for producing the climate-impacting stratospheric sulphate aerosol in 1831. Our results reveal the need to re-evaluate the hazard assessment of Babuyan Claro volcano and also, potentially, the quantitative treatment of the 1831 stratospheric sulphate aerosol in climate models. The Babuyan Claro example discussed in this paper therefore reinforces a call for the careful analysis of primary historical sources in volcanology

Tectonic stress and renewed uplift at Campi Flegrei caldera, southern Italy: New insights from caldera drilling

Deep drilling is a key tool for the investigation of active volcanoes in the modern Earth Sciences, as this provides the only means to obtain direct information on processes that occur at depth. Data acquired from drilling projects are fundamental to our understanding of volcano dynamics, and for mitigation of the hazards they pose for millions of people who live close to active volcanoes. We present here the first borehole measurement of the stress field in the crust of Campi Flegrei (southern Italy), a large active caldera, and one of the highest risk volcanoes worldwide. Measurements were performed to depths of ∼500 m during a pilot study for the Campi Flegrei Deep Drilling Project. These data indicate an extensional stress field, with a minimum horizontal stress of ca. 75% to 80% of the maximum horizontal stress, which is approximately equal to the vertical stress. The deviation from lithostatic conditions is consistent with a progressive increase in applied horizontal stress during episodes of unrest, since at least 1969. As the stress field is evolving with time, the outcome of renewed unrest cannot be assessed by analogy with previous episodes. Interpretations of future unrest must therefore accommodate the possibility that Campi Flegrei is approaching conditions that are more favourable to a volcanic eruption than has previously been the case. Such long-term accumulation of stress is not expected to be unique to Campi Flegrei, and so might provide a basis for improved forecasts of eruptions at large calderas elsewhere

Understanding volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy

Naples and its hinterland in Southern Italy are one of the most urbanized areas in the world under threat from volcanic activity. The region lies within range of three active volcanic centers: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The Campi Flegrei caldera, in particular, has been in unrest for six decades. The unrest followed four centuries of quiescence and has heightened concern about an increased potential for eruption. Innovative modeling and scientific drilling are being used to investigate Campi Flegrei, and the results highlight key directions for better understanding the mechanisms of caldera formation and the roles of magma intrusion and geothermal activity in determining the volcano's behavior. They also provide a framework for evaluating and mitigating the risk from this caldera and other large ones worldwide

Rapid ascent of rhyolitic magma at Chaitén volcano, Chile

International audienceAlthough rhyolite magma has fuelled some of the Earth's largest explosive volcanic eruptions, our understanding of these events is incomplete due to the previous lack of direct observation of these eruptions. On 1 May 2008, Chaitén volcano in Chile erupted rhyolite magma unexpectedly and explosively. Here, petrological and experimental data are presented that indicate that the hydrous rhyolite magma at Chaitén ascended very rapidly from storage depth to near-surface, with velocities of the order of one metre per second

New, simplified and improved interpretation of the Vaiont landslide mechanics

Both the occurrence and behaviour of the Vaiont landslide have not been satisfactorily explained previously because of difficulties arising from the assumption that the failure surface was ‘chair’ shaped. It is now known that there was no ‘chair’, which means that the 1963 landslide could not have been a reactivated ancient landslide because the residual strength of the clay interbeds would have been insufficient for stability prior to 1963. Furthermore, the moderately translational geometry reduces the influence of reservoir-induced groundwater and hence of submergence. Standard stability analyses now show that prior to 1960, the average shear strength must have significantly exceeded the peak shear strength of the clay interbeds known to have formed the majority of the failure surface. Three-dimensional stability analyses confirm these results and show that at the time of the first significant movements in 1960, the rising reservoir level had a negligible effect on the Factor of Safety. According to these results, the Vaiont landslide was most likely initiated by pore water pressures associated with transient rainfall-induced ‘perched’ groundwater above the clay layers, in combination with a smaller than hitherto assumed effect of reservoir impounding, then developed by brittle crack propagation within the clay beds, thus displaying progressive failure. Further, very heavy rainfall accelerated the process, possibly due to reservoir-induced groundwater impeding drainage of the rainwater, until the limestone beds at the northeast margin failed. With the shear strength suddenly reduced to residual throughout, the entire mass was released and was able to accelerate as observed

Controls on explosive-effusive volcanic eruption styles

One of the biggest challenges in volcanic hazard assessment is to understand how and why eruptive style changes within the same eruptive period or even from one eruption to the next at a given volcano. This review evaluates the competing processes that lead to explosive and effusive eruptions of silicic magmas. Eruptive style depends on a set of feedbacks involving interrelated magmatic properties and processes. Foremost of these are magma viscosity, gas loss, and external properties such as conduit geometry. Ultimately, these parameters control the speed at which magmas ascend, decompress and outgas en route to the surface, and thus determine eruptive style and evolution