"Hypothetical Integration in a Social Accounting Matrix and Fixed-price Multiplier Analysis"

This study proposes a simple modification to a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) in order to analyze the multiplier effects of a new sector. A different input composition, or technology, of the sector makes a conventional analysis of final-demand injections on existing sectors invalid. Author Kijong Kim shows that the modification--so-called hypothetical integration--is an efficient way to incorporate the difference into the SAM, rather than costly full-scale rebalancing. He applies this method to the case of the Expanded Public Works Programme in South Africa, and demonstrates that the proposed approach effectively represents the labor intensity requirement of the program and a new-factor income distribution.

" Insuring Against Private Capital Flows--Is It Worth the Premium?--What Are the Alternatives?"

Following an analysis of the forces behind the "global capital flows paradox" observed in the era of advancing financial globalization, this paper sets out to investigate the opportunity costs of self-insurance through precautionary reserve holdings. We reject the idea of reserves as low-cost protection against the vagaries of global finance. We also deny that arrangements giving rise to their rapid accumulation might be sustainable in the first place. Alternative policy options open to developing countries are explored, designed to limit both the risks of financial globalization and the costs of insurance-type responses. We propose comprehensive capital account management as an alternative to full capital account liberalization. The aims of a permanent regulatory regime of capital controls, with respect to both the aggregate size and the composition of capital flows, are twofold: first, to maintain sufficient macro policy space; second, to assure a good micro fit of external expertise incorporated in foreign direct investment as part of a country’s development strategy.

"Public Job-creation Programs: The Economic Benefits of Investing in Social Care. Case Studies in South Africa and the United States"

This paper demonstrates the strong impacts that public job creation in social care provisioning has on employment creation. Furthermore, it shows that mobilizing underutilized domestic labor resources and targeting them to bridge gaps in community-based services yield strong pro-poor income growth patterns that extend throughout the economy. Social care provision also contributes to promoting gender equality, as women—especially from low-income households-constitute a major workforce in the care sector. We present the ex-ante policy simulation results from two country case studies: South Africa and the United States. Both social accounting matrix–based multiplier analysis and propensity ranking–based microsimulation provide evidence of the pro-poor impacts of the social care expansion.Social Care; Job Creation; Gender Equality; Pro-Poor Growth

"Who Gains from President Obama's Stimulus Package ... And How Much?"

In this Special Report, Levy scholars Ajit Zacharias, Thomas Masterson, and Kijong Kim provide a preliminary assessment of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), a package of transfers and tax cuts that is expected to provide relief to low-income and vulnerable households especially hurt by the economic crisis, while at the same time supporting aggregate demand. By the administration's estimate, ARRA will create or save approximately three and a half million jobs by the end of 2010; while the ameliorating impact of the stimulus plan on the employment situation is surely welcome, say the authors, the government could have achieved far more at the same cost by skewing the stimulus package toward outlays rather than tax cuts. Their analysis points toward the necessity for a comprehensive employment strategy that goes well beyond ARRA. The need for public provisioning of various sorts--ranging from early childhood education centers to public health facilities to the “greening” of public transportation--coupled with the severe underutilization of labor, naturally suggests an expanded role for public employment as a desirable ingredient in any alternative strategy.

"Distributional Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act-- A Microsimulation Approach"

Over the last two decades, those at the bottom of the income scale have seen their incomes stagnate, while those at the top have seen theirs skyrocket; without intervention, the recession that began in December 2007 was likely to exacerbate this trend. Will the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) be able to keep the situation from getting worse for those at the bottom of the income scale? Will ARRA reverse the upward trend in inequality that we've seen in the recent past? The authors of this new working paper employ a microsimulation of ARRA to address these questions. They find that, despite a large amount of job creation, ARRA is likely to have little impact on overall income inequality, or on the income gaps between relatively advantaged and disadvantaged groups.

"Why President Obama Should Care About 'Care': An Effective and Equitable Investment Strategy for Job Creation"

In his State of the Union address President Obama acknowledged that "our most urgent task is job creation" - that a move toward full employment will lay the foundation for long-term economic growth and ensure that the federal government creates the necessary conditions for businesses to expand and hire more workers. According to a new study by Levy scholars Rania Antonopoulos, Kijong Kim, Thomas Masterson, and Ajit Zacharias, the government needs to identify and invest in projects that have the potential for massive, and immediate, public job creation. They conclude that social sector investment, such as early childhood education and home-based care, would generate twice as many jobs as infrastructure spending and nearly 1.5 times the number created by investment in green energy, while catering to the most vulnerable segments of the workforce.

Update of FRF matrix and physical parameters of finite element model

Numerically simulated results by finite element model of a dynamic system do rarely coincide with the actual responses of the structure due to the modeling, manufacturing errors or other causes. The parameters of the finite element model should be corrected for subsequent proper analysis. Minimizing a cost function by the difference between the analytical and actual dynamic stiffness matrices along with constrained conditions of measured FRFs (Frequency Response Functions), this work provides the mathematical form on the updated FRF. The updated parameter matrices of the structure are derived from the FRF variation within the prescribed frequency range. It is shown that the exactness of the proposed method depends on the number of the measured data. The validity of the proposed method is illustrated in updating the parameter matrices of a planar truss structure

Investing in Free Universal Childcare in South Africa, Turkey and Uruguay: A comparative analysis of costs, short-term employment effects and fiscal revenue

This discussion paper makes the case for investing in free universal childcare services of high quality in order to reduce gender inequality in earnings and employment. It estimates the employment-generating and fiscal effects of investing in free universal childcare in three middle income countries: South Africa, Uruguay and Turkey. It calculates the total annual costs of investing in high-quality childcare services that would cover the entire population of children below primary school age, using parameters relevant to each national context. Results show that employment rates can be significantly increased, especially for women, as a result of the combined direct, indirect and induced job creation. Although the total annual cost of such investment can go up to 3 to 4% of GDP, the net cost can be halved thanks to significant fiscal returns stemming from increased employment and earnings, without changing the tax structure itself (rates and bands). Results are compared with those obtained using a similar method for the UK and show that the reach of a country’s tax system plays an important role in the funding process. The paper also estimates a theoretical fiscal break-even point, based on longitudinal labour supply effects of mothers closing their lifetime employment and earning gap following such generous childcare offer. In all three countries and the UK, the fiscal return on investment based on this measure is likely to outstrip the total cost of childcare for a typical mother of two children on average earnings

Ecotoxicity of heat-treated Kapur and Japanese larch

Kapur (Dryobalanops sp.) and Japanese larch (Larix kaempferi) wood samples were heat-treated in air at 180 °C for 24 and 48 h. Leaching and toxicity tests were conducted to determine the ecotoxicity effect of these heat-treated woods on the aquatic environment due to heat treatment. The toxicity of conventional preservative-treated woods, i.e. chromated copper arsenate (CCA) and ammoniacal copper quat (ACQ), was also determined for comparison purposes. Acute toxicity tests were performed using two aquatic organisms, Daphnia magna and Vibrio fischeri according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development standard procedures and Microtox assay, respectively. Significantly low toxicity to D. magna was found for the heat-treated Kapur compared to that of untreated Kapur, while heat-treated Japanese larch did not show any toxicity effect. As expected, ACQ-treated samples showed the highest toxicity to D. magna, followed by that of CCA, though toxicity of both preservative-treated woods further reduced over time. Hence, heat treatment of Kapur and Japanese larch were believed to be not harmful to the aquatic ecosystem