How I Organise my Research. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 96 1970

I give this talk with some trepidation. In the first place, I find it extremely egotistical to speak about the organisation of my own research, and I am nothing if not a modest man. More important, the general subject is one on which I never heard anybody lecture before. Thus, I do not have available many sources, the conventional prop of the professional research worker. Professor O'Connor, in organising these lectures, is providing for you a service which, in my experience, is not given anywhere else. Accordingly, I hope you will be patient with us if the first results are not too good

Welfare measurement and the national accounts. ESRI Memorandum Series 109

The stated objective of the author is "to lay a bridge between income accounting and welfare theory". There are two contrasting ways of pursuing this objective. The first, in the realm of pure theory, examines the relationship between welfare and hypothetical, perfect measures of national product, while the second lies in the domain of national income accounting with attempts to redefine concepts, extend data coverage and improve measurement. Professor Romans’s attempt at bridge-building begins in the realm of theory with the construction of a welfare maximisa tion model designed to establish the conditions in which it can be asserted without ambiguity that net national product and welfare are moving in the same direetion

Public Finance Procedures. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 147 1981

The painful measures needed to restore order in the public finances are causing more and more people to regret that the Exchequer was ever allowed to get into such imbalance. Hopefully, this will convince them of the need to establish procedures which will help to ensure that the public finances do not so readily drift into disorder again. The proposals contained in the recent Government White Paper, A Better Way to Plan the Nation's Finances, represent a significant attempt to achieve just this. In my view, the general intent of these proposals deserves to be welcomed, not only by those concerned about sound finance but by all, whether from the right or the left, who value the preservation of democracy. To justify this view I propose, before critically examining the details of the proposals, to explain the far-reaching implications of the problem to which the proposals are addressed

Job Creation Since the Foundation of the State. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 119 1975

The population of the Republic of Ireland is now 3.2 million, just about the same as it was in 1921 when the new State was about to be formed. From the perspective of other European countries, the remark able thing about this is the absence of growth, since every other European country has experienced a significant rise in population in this period: even in Northern Ireland, which I shall consider later in the paper, the population is now more than one-fifth greater than in 1921. But on the other hand, from the perspective of Ireland in the 1950s, when population was declining rapidly - reaching a low point of 2.8 million in 1961 - few people would have confidently envisaged restoration of the population to its 1921 level within such a comparatively short number of years. The major determinant of Ireland's unusual population experience has been emigration, which in turn has been chiefly influenced by the search for jobs abroad that were not available at home. In this paper, I shall first outline the past record of employment creation in the Republic of Ireland. Part II considers the varying policy approaches that were adopted. In Part III, the employment experience in Northern Ireland is discussed. In the concluding part, I try to draw some lessons from the past which I hope will prove relevant to your work in the rest of the Course when you turn your minds to the present and prospective situation

Output, Employment and Wages in the Small Open Economy. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 132 1979

The high level of employment consistently maintained by most western countries during the 1950s and 1960s lent credence to Keynes's view that the level of effective demand was the main determinant of output, and, therefore, of employment. A reappraisal of this view appeared necessary in the 1970s as governments faced accelerating inflation and unemployment. Alternative schools developed, attempting to discredit the notion that govern­ment-induced variations in aggregate demand could necessarily maintain output, and, thus, employment, at desired levels. The aim of this paper is to consider the short-run interrelations between output, employment and wages, with special reference to the small open economy; and to contrast the policy implications for such an economy with those arising from the traditional "Keynesian" closed economy model

Impressions of a visit to Denmark. ESRI Memorandum series 101

At the outset I should stress that the statements made about the Danish economy and society are largely impressionistic, being based on discussions and subjective observation during five days in Denmark, supplemented by some background reading and study of statistics. But, the major purpose of my visit, and of this report, was not to study Denmark as such but rather to view Irish problems, and the research we are doing on them, in the light of Danish experience. Moreover, I did not go there with an open mind: I had, so to speak many hypotheses relating to Ireland already in mind and I wanted to see how these looked when viewed against a Danish background

The Consumer Price Index and Different Household Expenditure Patterns. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, October 1975

The Consumer Price Index ( CPI) is now used increasingly as the major reference point in adjusting pay and social benefits to "compensate" for inflation. This raises many interesting questions about the precise meaning of compensation, its feasibility and its effects as well as the suitability of the CPI for the purpose. This paper, which is part of work in progress on these issues, examines how price changes affect different types of household by virtue of differences in their expenditure patterns

Situational awareness within objective structured clinical examination stations in undergraduate medical training - a literature search

Background: Medical students may not be able to identify the essential elements of situational awareness (SA) necessary for clinical reasoning. Recent studies suggest that students have little insight into cognitive processing and SA in clinical scenarios. Objective Structured Clinical Examinations (OSCEs) could be used to assess certain elements of situational awareness. The purpose of this paper is to review the literature with a view to identifying whether levels of SA based on Endsley's model can be assessed utilising OSCEs during undergraduate medical training. Methods: A systematic search was performed pertaining to SA and OSCEs, to identify studies published between January 1975 (first paper describing an OSCE) and February 2017, in peer reviewed international journals published in English. PUBMED, EMBASE, PsycINFO Ovid and SCOPUS were searched for papers that described the assessment of SA using OSCEs among undergraduate medical students. Key search terms included "objective structured clinical examination", "objective structured clinical assessment" or "OSCE" and "non-technical skills", "sense-making", "clinical reasoning", "perception", "comprehension", "projection", "situation awareness", "situational awareness" and "situation assessment". Boolean operators (AND, OR) were used as conjunctions to narrow the search strategy, resulting in the limitation of papers relevant to the research interest. Areas of interest were elements of SA that can be assessed by these examinations. Results: The initial search of the literature retrieved 1127 publications. Upon removal of duplicates and papers relating to nursing, paramedical disciplines, pharmacy and veterinary education by title, abstract or full text, 11 articles were eligible for inclusion as related to the assessment of elements of SA in undergraduate medical students. Discussion: Review of the literature suggests that whole-task OSCEs enable the evaluation of SA associated with clinical reasoning skills. If they address the levels of SA, these OSCEs can provide supportive feedback and strengthen educational measures associated with higher diagnostic accuracy and reasoning abilities. Conclusion: Based on the findings, the early exposure of medical students to SA is recommended, utilising OSCEs to evaluate and facilitate SA in dynamic environment

Vitamin A and Retinoid Derivatives for Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta Analysis

Despite reported antiproliferative activity of vitamin A and its common use for cancer, there is no comprehensive synthesis of its safety and efficacy in lung cancers. To address this issue we conducted a systematic review of the safety and efficacy of vitamin A for the treatment and prevention of lung cancers.Two independent reviewers searched six electronic databases from inception to July 2009 for clinical, observational, and preclinical evidence pertaining to the safety and efficacy of vitamin A and related retinoids for lung cancers. 248 studies were included for full review and analysis. Five RCTs assessed treatment of lung cancers, three assessed primary prevention, and three looked at secondary prevention of lung cancers. Five surrogate studies, 26 phase I/II, 32 observational, and 67 preclinical studies were also included. 107 studies were included for interactions between vitamin A and chemo- or radiation-therapy. Although some studies demonstrated benefits, there was insufficient evidence overall to support the use of vitamin A or related retinoids for the treatment or prevention of lung cancers. Retinyl palmitate combined with beta carotene increased risk of lung cancer in smokers in the large CARET trial. Pooling of three studies pertaining to treatment and three studies on secondary prevention revealed no significant effects on response rate, second primary tumor, recurrence, 5-year survival, and mortality. There was a small improvement in event free survival associated with vitamin A compared to controls, RR 1.24 (95% CI 1.13-1.35). The synthetic rexinoid bexarotene increased survival significantly among a subset of patients in two RCTs (p<0.014, <0.087).There is a lack of evidence to support the use of naturally occurring retinoids for the treatment and prevention of lung cancers. The rexinoid bexarotene may hold promise for use among a subset of patients, and deserves further study

Selenium and Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta Analysis

Selenium is a natural health product widely used in the treatment and prevention of lung cancers, but large chemoprevention trials have yielded conflicting results. We conducted a systematic review of selenium for lung cancers, and assessed potential interactions with conventional therapies.Two independent reviewers searched six databases from inception to March 2009 for evidence pertaining to the safety and efficacy of selenium for lung cancers. Pubmed and EMBASE were searched to October 2009 for evidence on interactions with chemo- or radiation-therapy. In the efficacy analysis there were nine reports of five RCTs and two biomarker-based studies, 29 reports of 26 observational studies, and 41 preclinical studies. Fifteen human studies, one case report, and 36 preclinical studies were included in the interactions analysis. Based on available evidence, there appears to be a different chemopreventive effect dependent on baseline selenium status, such that selenium supplementation may reduce risk of lung cancers in populations with lower baseline selenium status (serum<106 ng/mL), but increase risk of lung cancers in those with higher selenium (≥ 121.6 ng/mL). Pooling data from two trials yielded no impact to odds of lung cancer, OR 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.61-1.43); other cancers that were the primary endpoints of these trials, OR 1.51 (95%CI 0.70-3.24); and all-cause-death, OR 0.93 (95%CI 0.79-1.10). In the treatment of lung cancers, selenium may reduce cisplatin-induced nephrotoxicity and side effects associated with radiation therapy.Selenium may be effective for lung cancer prevention among individuals with lower selenium status, but at present should not be used as a general strategy for lung cancer prevention. Although promising, more evidence on the ability of selenium to reduce cisplatin and radiation therapy toxicity is required to ensure that therapeutic efficacy is maintained before any broad clinical recommendations can be made in this context