TSH and FT4 reference interval recommendations and prevalence of gestational thyroid dysfunction: quantification of current diagnostic approaches

Context Guidelines recommend use of population- and trimester-specific TSH and FT4 reference intervals (RIs) in pregnancy. Since these are often unavailable, clinicians frequently rely on alternative diagnostic strategies. We sought to quantify the diagnostic consequences of current recommendations. Methods We included cohorts participating in the Consortium on Thyroid and Pregnancy. Different approaches were used to define RIs: a TSH fixed upper limit of 4.0 mU/L (fixed limit approach), a fixed subtraction from the upper limit for TSH of 0.5 mU/L (subtraction approach) and using non-pregnancy RIs. Outcome measures were sensitivity and false discovery rate (FDR) of women for whom levothyroxine treatment was indicated and those for whom treatment would be considered according to international guidelines. Results The study population comprised 52,496 participants from 18 cohorts. Compared to the use of trimester-specific reference intervals, alternative approaches had a low sensitivity (0.63-0.82) and high FDR (0.11-0.35) to detect women with a treatment indication or consideration. Sensitivity and FDR to detect a treatment indication in the first trimester were similar between the fixed limit, subtraction and non-pregnancy approach (0.77-0.11 vs 0.74-0.16 vs 0.60-0.11). The diagnostic performance to detect overt hypothyroidism, isolated hypothyroxinemia and (sub)clinical hyperthyroidism mainly varied between FT4 RI approaches, while the diagnostic performance to detect subclinical hypothyroidism varied between the applied TSH RI approaches. Conclusion Alternative approaches to define RIs for TSH and FT4 in pregnancy result in considerable over- and underdiagnosis compared with population- and trimester-specific RIs. Additional strategies need to be explored to optimize identification of thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy

Defining gestational thyroid dysfunction through modified non-pregnancy reference intervals: an individual participant meta-analysis

Background: Establishing local trimester-specific reference intervals for gestational TSH and FT4 is often not feasible, necessitating alternative strategies. We aimed to systematically quantify the diagnostic performance of standardized modifications of center-specific non-pregnancy reference intervals as compared to trimester-specific reference intervals. Methods: We included prospective cohorts participating in the Consortium on Thyroid and Pregnancy. After relevant exclusions, reference intervals were calculated per cohort in thyroperoxidase antibody-negative women. Modifications to the non-pregnancy reference intervals included an absolute modification (per 0.1 mU/L TSH or 1 pmol/L FT4), relative modification (in steps of 5%) and fixed limits (upper TSH limit between 3.0 to 4.5 mU/L and lower FT4 limit 5-15 pmol/L). We compared (sub)clinical hypothyroidism prevalence, sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of aforementioned methodologies with population-based trimester-specific reference intervals. Results: The final study population comprised 52,496 participants in 18 cohorts. Optimal modifications of standard reference intervals to diagnose gestational overt hypothyroidism were -5% for the upper limit of TSH and +5% for the lower limit of FT4 (sensitivity 0.70, confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.86; PPV 0.64, CI 0.54-0.74). For subclinical hypothyroidism, these were -20% for the upper limit of TSH and -15% for the lower limit of FT4 (sensitivity 0.91, CI 0.67-0.98; PPV 0.71, CI 0.58-0.80). Absolute and fixed modifications yielded similar results. Confidence intervals were wide, limiting generalizability. Conclusion: We could not identify modifications of non-pregnancy TSH and FT4 reference intervals that would enable centers to adequately approximate trimester-specific reference intervals. Future efforts should be turned towards studying the meaningfulness of trimester-specific reference intervals and risk-based decision limits

Risk factors for thyroid dysfunction in pregnancy: an individual participant data meta-analysis

Background: International guidelines recommend targeted screening to identify gestational thyroid dysfunction. However, currently used risk factors have questionable discriminative ability. We quantified the risk for thyroid function test abnormalities for a subset of risk factors currently used in international guidelines. Methods: We included prospective cohort studies with data on gestational maternal thyroid function and potential risk factors (maternal age, body mass index [BMI], parity, smoking status, pregnancy through in vitro fertilization, twin pregnancy, gestational age, maternal education, and thyroid peroxidase antibody [TPOAb] or thyroglobulin antibody [TgAb] positivity). Exclusion criteria were pre-existing thyroid disease and use of thyroid interfering medication. We analyzed individual participant data using mixed-effects regression models. Primary outcomes were overt and subclinical hypothyroidism and a treatment indication (defined as overt hypothyroidism, subclinical hypothyroidism with thyrotropin >10 mU/L, or subclinical hypothyroidism with TPOAb positivity). Results: The study population comprised 65,559 participants in 25 cohorts. The screening rate in cohorts using risk factors currently recommended (age >30 years, parity ≥2, BMI ≥40) was 58%, with a detection rate for overt and subclinical hypothyroidism of 59%. The absolute risk for overt or subclinical hypothyroidism varied <2% over the full range of age and BMI and for any parity. Receiver operating characteristic curves, fitted using maternal age, BMI, smoking status, parity, and gestational age at blood sampling as explanatory variables, yielded areas under the curve ranging from 0.58 to 0.63 for the primary outcomes. TPOAbs/TgAbs positivity was associated with overt hypothyroidism (approximate risk for antibody negativity 0.1%, isolated TgAb positivity 2.4%, isolated TPOAb positivity 3.8%, combined antibody positivity 7.0%; p < 0.001), subclinical hypothyroidism (risk for antibody negativity 2.2%, isolated TgAb positivity 8.1%, isolated TPOAb positivity 14.2%, combined antibody positivity 20.0%; p < 0.001) and a treatment indication (risk for antibody negativity 0.2%, isolated TgAb positivity 2.2%, isolated TPOAb positivity 3.0%, and combined antibody positivity 5.1%; p < 0.001). Twin pregnancy was associated with a higher risk of overt hyperthyroidism (5.6% vs. 0.7%; p < 0.001). Conclusions: The risk factors assessed in this study had poor predictive ability for detecting thyroid function test abnormalities, questioning their clinical usability for targeted screening. As expected, TPOAb positivity (used as a benchmark) was a relevant risk factor for (subclinical) hypothyroidism. These results provide insights into different risk factors for gestational thyroid dysfunction