Clinical, health systems and neighbourhood determinants of tuberculosis case fatality in urban Blantyre, Malawi : a multilevel epidemiological analysis of enhanced surveillance data

We investigated whether household to clinic distance was a risk factor for death on tuberculosis (TB) treatment in Malawi. Using enhanced TB surveillance data, we recorded all TB treatment initiations and outcomes between 2015 and 2018. Household locations were geolocated, and distances were measured by a straight line or shortest road network. We constructed Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to investigate associations between distance and case fatality. A total of 479/4397 (10.9%) TB patients died. Greater distance was associated with higher (odds ratio (OR) 1.07 per kilometre (km) increase, 95% credible interval (CI) 0.99–1.16) odds of death in TB patients registered at the referral hospital, but not among TB patients registered at primary clinics (OR 0.98 per km increase, 95% CI 0.92–1.03). Age (OR 1.02 per year increase, 95% CI 1.01–1.02) and HIV-positive status (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.73–2.85) were also associated with higher odds of death. Model estimates were similar for both distance measures. Distance was a risk factor for death among patients at the main referral hospital, likely due to delayed diagnosis and suboptimal healthcare access. To reduce mortality, targeted community TB screening interventions for TB disease and HIV, and expansion of novel sensitive diagnostic tests are required.Peer reviewe

Durations of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and care-seeking phases of tuberculosis disease with a Bayesian analysis of prevalence survey and notification data

This work was supported by the Wellcome Trust (206575/Z/17/Z to PM, 200901/Z/16/Z to ELC) and the UK MRC (MR/P022081/1 to PJD). This UK funded award (PJD) is part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. KCH is supported by the European Research Council (757699) and UK FCDO (“Leaving no-one behind: transforming gendered pathways to health for TB”). This research has been partially funded by UK aid from the UK government (to KCH).Background Ratios of bacteriologically positive tuberculosis (TB) prevalence to notification rates are used to characterise typical durations of TB disease. However, this ignores the clinical spectrum of tuberculosis disease and potentially long infectious periods with minimal or no symptoms prior to care-seeking. Methods We developed novel statistical models to estimate progression from initial bacteriological positivity including smear conversion, symptom onset and initial care-seeking. Case-detection ratios, TB incidence, durations, and other parameters were estimated by fitting the model to tuberculosis prevalence survey and notification data (one subnational and 11 national datasets) within a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Results Analysis across 11 national datasets found asymptomatic tuberculosis durations in the range 4–8 months for African countries; three countries in Asia (Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Philippines) showed longer durations of > 1 year. For the six countries with relevant data, care-seeking typically began half-way between symptom onset and notification. For Kenya and Blantyre, Malawi, individual-level data were available. The sex-specific durations of asymptomatic bacteriologically-positive tuberculosis were 9.0 months (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.2–11.2) for men and 8.1 months (95% CrI: 6.2–10.3) for women in Kenya, and 4.9 months (95% CrI: 2.6–7.9) for men and 3.5 months (95% CrI: 1.3–6.2) for women in Blantyre. Age-stratified analysis of data for Kenya showed no strong age-dependence in durations. For Blantyre, HIV-stratified analysis estimated an asymptomatic duration of 1.3 months (95% CrI: 0.3–3.0) for HIV-positive people, shorter than the 8.5 months (95% CrI: 5.0–12.7) for HIV-negative people. Additionally, case-detection ratios were higher for people living with HIV than HIV-negative people (93% vs 71%). Conclusion Asymptomatic TB disease typically lasts around 6 months. We found no evidence of age-dependence, but much shorter durations among people living with HIV, and longer durations in some Asian settings. To eradicate TB transmission, greater gains may be achieved by proactively screening people without symptoms through active case finding interventions.Peer reviewe

Clinical, health systems and neighbourhood determinants of tuberculosis case fatality in urban Blantyre, Malawi: a multilevel epidemiological analysis of enhanced surveillance data

Abstract We investigated whether household to clinic distance was a risk factor for death on tuberculosis (TB) treatment in Malawi. Using enhanced TB surveillance data, we recorded all TB treatment initiations and outcomes between 2015 and 2018. Household locations were geolocated, and distances were measured by a straight line or shortest road network. We constructed Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to investigate associations between distance and case fatality. A total of 479/4397 (10.9%) TB patients died. Greater distance was associated with higher (odds ratio (OR) 1.07 per kilometre (km) increase, 95% credible interval (CI) 0.99–1.16) odds of death in TB patients registered at the referral hospital, but not among TB patients registered at primary clinics (OR 0.98 per km increase, 95% CI 0.92–1.03). Age (OR 1.02 per year increase, 95% CI 1.01–1.02) and HIV-positive status (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.73–2.85) were also associated with higher odds of death. Model estimates were similar for both distance measures. Distance was a risk factor for death among patients at the main referral hospital, likely due to delayed diagnosis and suboptimal healthcare access. To reduce mortality, targeted community TB screening interventions for TB disease and HIV, and expansion of novel sensitive diagnostic tests are required.</jats:p

Neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios for adult bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis reveals hotspots of underdiagnosis in Blantyre, Malawi

Funding: This work was supported by two grants from Wellcome Trust (ELC grant number WT200901/Z/16/Z) and (PM grant number 200901/Z/16/Z). JRC was funded by UK Medical Research Council (MRC) programme grant MC_UU_00004/07. PJD was supported by a fellowship from the MRC (MR/P022081/1); this UK funded award was part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. RMB was funded by Wellcome Trust (203905/16/Z). KCH was supported by the European Research Council (757699) and UK FCDO (Leaving no-one behind: transforming gendered pathways to health for TB). TC was supported by US NIH R01 R01AI147854.Local information is needed to guide targeted interventions for respiratory infections such as tuberculosis (TB). Case notification rates (CNRs) are readily available, but systematically underestimate true disease burden in neighbourhoods with high diagnostic access barriers. We explored a novel approach, adjusting CNRs for under-notification (P:N ratio) using neighbourhood-level predictors of TB prevalence-to-notification ratios. We analysed data from 1) a citywide routine TB surveillance system including geolocation, confirmatory mycobacteriology, and clinical and demographic characteristics of all registering TB patients in Blantyre, Malawi during 2015–19, and 2) an adult TB prevalence survey done in 2019. In the prevalence survey, consenting adults from randomly selected households in 72 neighbourhoods had symptom-plus-chest X-ray screening, confirmed with sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and culture. Bayesian multilevel models were used to estimate adjusted neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios, based on summarised posterior draws from fitted adult bacteriologically-confirmed TB CNRs and prevalence. From 2015–19, adult bacteriologically-confirmed CNRs were 131 (479/371,834), 134 (539/415,226), 114 (519/463,707), 56 (283/517,860) and 46 (258/578,377) per 100,000 adults per annum, and 2019 bacteriologically-confirmed prevalence was 215 (29/13,490) per 100,000 adults. Lower educational achievement by household head and neighbourhood distance to TB clinic was negatively associated with CNRs. The mean neighbourhood P:N ratio was 4.49 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.98–11.91), consistent with underdiagnosis of TB, and was most pronounced in informal peri-urban neighbourhoods. Here we have demonstrated a method for the identification of neighbourhoods with high levels of under-diagnosis of TB without the requirement for a prevalence survey; this is important since prevalence surveys are expensive and logistically challenging. If confirmed, this approach may support more efficient and effective targeting of intensified TB and HIV case-finding interventions aiming to accelerate elimination of urban TB.Peer reviewe

Effects of coronavirus disease pandemic on tuberculosis notifications, Malawi

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic might affect tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and patient care. We analyzed a citywide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi did not have an official COVID-19 lockdown but closed schools and borders on March 23, 2020. In an interrupted time series analysis, we noted an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications in April 2020; notifications recovered to near prepandemic numbers by December 2020. However, 333 fewer cumulative TB notifications were received than anticipated. Women and girls were affected more (30.7% fewer cases) than men and boys (20.9% fewer cases). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closures, inadequate personal protective equipment, and COVID-19 stigma because of similar symptoms to TB were mentioned as reasons for fewer people being diagnosed with TB. Public health measures could benefit control of both TB and COVID-19, but only if TB diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend.Peer reviewe

Screening for Tuberculosis With Xpert MTB/RIF Assay Versus Fluorescent Microscopy Among Adults Newly Diagnosed With Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Rural Malawi: A Cluster Randomized Trial (Chepetsa).

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains the leading cause of death among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals globally. Screening for TB at the point of HIV diagnosis with a high-sensitivity assay presents an opportunity to reduce mortality. METHODS: We performed a cluster randomized trial of TB screening among adults newly diagnosed with HIV in 12 primary health clinics in rural Thyolo, Malawi. Clinics were allocated in a 1:1 ratio to perform either point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) or point-of-care light-emitting diode fluorescence microscopy (LED-FM) for individuals screening positive for TB symptoms. Asymptomatic participants were offered isoniazid preventive therapy in both arms. Investigators, but not clinic staff or participants, were masked to allocation. Our primary outcome was the incidence rate ratio (RR) of all-cause mortality within 12 months of HIV diagnosis. RESULTS: Prevalent TB was diagnosed in 24 of 1001 (2.4%) individuals enrolled in clinics randomized to Xpert, compared with 10 of 841 (1.2%) in clinics randomized to LED-FM. All-cause mortality was 22% lower in the Xpert arm than in the LED-FM arm (6.7 vs 8.6 per 100 person-years; RR, 0.78 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .58-1.06]). A planned subgroup analysis suggested that participants with more advanced HIV (World Health Organization clinical stage 3 or 4) disease had lower mortality in clinics randomized to Xpert than to LED-FM (RR, 0.43 [95% CI, .22-.87]). CONCLUSIONS: In rural Malawi, using point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF to test symptomatic patients for TB at the time of HIV diagnosis reduced all-cause 12-month mortality among individuals with advanced HIV. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01450085

Provider-initiated HIV testing and TB screening in the era of universal coverage: Are the right people being reached? A cohort study in Blantyre, Malawi.

Patients with tuberculosis (TB) symptoms have high prevalence of HIV, and should be prioritised for HIV testing. In a prospective cohort study in Bangwe primary care clinic, Blantyre, Malawi, all adults (18 years or older) presenting with an acute illness were screened for TB symptoms (cough, fever, night sweats, weight loss). Demographic characteristics were linked to exit interview by fingerprint bioidentification. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to estimate the proportion completing same-visit HIV testing, comparing between those with and without TB symptoms. There were 5427 adult attendees between 21/5/2018 and 6/9/2018. Exit interviews were performed for 2402 (44%). 276 patients were excluded from the analysis, being already on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Presentation with any TB symptom was common for men (54.6%) and women (57.4%). Overall 27.6% (585/ 2121) attenders reported being offered testing and 21.5% (455/2121) completed provider-initiated HIV testing and counselling (PITC) and received results. The proportions offered testing were similar among participants with and without TB symptoms (any TB symptom: 29.0% vs. 25.7%). This was consistent for each individual symptom; cough, weight loss, fever and night sweats. Multivariable regression models indicated men, younger adults and participants who had previously tested were more likely to complete PITC than women, older adults and those who had never previously tested. Same-visit completion of HIV testing was suboptimal, especially among groups known to have high prevalence of undiagnosed HIV. As countries approach universal coverage of ART, identifying and prioritising currently underserved groups for HIV testing will be essential

Impact of community-wide tuberculosis active case finding and HIV testing on tuberculosis trends in Malawi

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis case-finding interventions are critical to meeting World Health Organization End TB strategy goals. We investigated the impact of community-wide tuberculosis active case-finding (ACF) alongside scale-up of HIV testing and care on trends in adult tuberculosis case notification rates (CNRs) in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: Five rounds of ACF for tuberculosis (1-2 weeks of leafleting, door-to-door enquiry for cough and sputum microscopy) were delivered to neighbourhoods ("ACF areas") in North-West Blantyre between April 2011 and August 2014. Many of these neighborhoods also had concurrent HIV testing interventions. The remaining neighbourhoods in Blantyre City ("non-ACF areas") provided a non-randomised comparator. We analyzed TB CNRs from January 2009 until December 2018. We used interrupted time series analysis to compare tuberculosis CNRs before ACF and after ACF, and between ACF and non-ACF areas. FINDINGS: Tuberculosis CNRs increased in Blantyre concurrently with start of ACF for tuberculosis in both ACF and non-ACF areas, with a larger magnitude in ACF areas. Compared to a counterfactual where pre-ACF CNR trends continued during ACF period, we estimated there were an additional 101 (95% confidence interval [CI] 42 to 160) microbiologically confirmed (Bac+) tuberculosis diagnoses per 100,000 person-years in the ACF areas in three and a half years of ACF. Compared to a counterfactual where trends in ACF area were the same as trends in non-ACF areas, we estimated an additional 63 (95% CI 38 to 90) Bac+ diagnoses per 100,000 person-years in the same period. INTERPRETATION: Tuberculosis ACF was associated with a rapid increase in people diagnosed with tuberculosis in Blantyre

Incidence of HIV-positive admission and inpatient mortality in Malawi (2012-2019).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate trends in population incidence of HIV-positive hospital admission and risk of in-hospital death among adults living with HIV between 2012 and 2019 in Blantyre, Malawi. DESIGN: Population cohort study using an existing electronic health information system ('SPINE') at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital and Blantyre census data. METHODS: We used multiple imputation and negative binomial regression to estimate population age-specific and sex-specific admission rates over time. We used a log-binomial model to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death. RESULTS: Of 32 814 adult medical admissions during Q4 2012--Q3 2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. HIV-positive admissions decreased substantially between 2012 and 2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV-positive admissions were highest in Q3 2013 (173 per 100 000 adult Blantyre residents) and lowest in Q3 2019 (53 per 100 000 residents). An estimated 10 818 fewer than expected people with HIV (PWH) [95% confidence interval (CI) 10 068-11 568] were admitted during 2012-2019 compared with the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95% CI 2002-2526). In-hospital mortality for PWH was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with antiretroviral therapy (ART) use at admission. CONCLUSION: Rates of admission for adult PWH decreased substantially, likely because of large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PWH

Impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis notifications in Blantyre Malawi: an interrupted time series analysis and qualitative study with healthcare workers.

COVID-19 may impact on tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and care. We analysed a city-wide electronic TB register in Blantyre, Malawi and interviewed TB officers. Malawi had no official “lockdown” but closed schools and borders on 23 March 2020. In interrupted time series analysis, there was an immediate 35.9% reduction in TB notifications (95% CI 22.0 to 47.3%) in April, which recovered to near pre-pandemic numbers by December 2020, but with 333 (95% CI 291 to 375) fewer cumulative notifications than anticipated. Women and girls were impacted (30.7% fewer cases, 95% CI 28.4 to 33.0%) more than men and boys (20.9% fewer, 95% CI 18.5 to 23.3). Fear of COVID-19 infection, temporary facility closure, inadequate protective equipment and COVID-19 stigma with similar presenting symptoms to TB were mentioned. Public health measures could benefit both TB and COVID-19, but only if diagnostic services remain accessible and are considered safe to attend