Linear and nonlinear monetary approaches to the exchange rate of the Philippines peso-Japanese yen

This study provides evidence of nonlinear long-run relationship between peso-yen exchange rate and its monetary determinants implied by the reduced-form flexible-price monetary model for the Philippines, using Breitung`s (2001) nonlinear cointegration testing procedures. The existence of such relationship is probably resulted from the strong and consistent bilateral trade relationship between the Philippines and Japan. Results from various monetary restrictions tests suggest that other forms of the related monetary model are not suitable in the determination of the peso-yen exchange rate.monetary model,exchange rate,Philippines,cointegration, nonlinear, nonparametric,peso

Which Lag Length Selection Criteria Should We Employ?

Estimating the lag length of autoregressive process for a time series is a crucial econometric exercise in most economic studies. This study attempts to provide helpfully guidelines regarding the use of lag length selection criteria in determining the autoregressive lag length. The most interesting finding of this study is that Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and final prediction error (FPE) are superior than the other criteria under study in the case of small sample (60 observations and below), in the manners that they minimize the chance of under estimation while maximizing the chance of recovering the true lag length. One immediate econometric implication of this study is that as most economic sample data can seldom be considered “large†in size, AIC and FPE are recommended for the estimation the autoregressive lag length.

The Predictability of ASEAN-5 Exchange Rates

In an attempt to determine the predictability of ASEAN exchange rates, five currencies including Malaysian ringgit, Thailand baht, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah and the Philippines peso, denominated in US dollar as well as Japanese yen, were modeled using advanced time series analysis. Results suggested that Singapore exchange rate could be better predicted when denominated in US dollar, most probably because the East Asian Financial Crisis did not affect them both. On the other hand, other Asean exchange rates were better predicted when denominated in Japanese yen, as they had closer economic ties with Japan. However, while Japan had undergone serious recession after the crisis, it did not experience dramatic political instability as experienced by Indonesia, hence Indonesian rupiah remained unpredictable by yen. These results show that although advanced time series analysis dealt with economic fundamentals implicitly; it still could be a powerful tool for exchange rates modeling and forecasting, especially in the medium to long term.Exchange rate; ASEAN-5, predictibility, ARIMA

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in a Transition Economy - Cambodia: Empirical Evidence from Bilateral Exchange Rates

This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the validity of PPP hypothesis for Cambodia. The standard unit root tests (ADF and PP) and the panel unit root tests fail to support PPP hypothesis for the nine Cambodia’s trading partners. The unit root tests with structural break support the PPP hypothesis for the bilateral real exchange rates of Euro, Indonesia rupiah, Malaysia ringgit, and Singapore dollar. This finding is found to be relevant for ‘de-dollarization’ strategy in Cambodia, and in responding to recent global financial crisis (2007-2008).Cambodia; Dollarization; Exchange Rates; Purchasing Power Parity

Impact of foreign direct investment volatility on economic growth of asean-5 countries

This study examines the impact of volatility of FDI, rather than its level on the economic growth of ASEAN-5 countries. Using bounds testing approach, we show that FDI volatility retards long-run economic growth in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand. Our results suggest that the economic growth of Indonesia is the most susceptible to the adverse effect of FDI volatility. These findings, which are robust to different measures of FDI volatility, are of concern in dealing with the economic growth of developing countries in the ASEAN region, which rely heavily on FDI.Foreign direct investment, economic growth, volatility, cointegration, ASEAN, ARDL

An Empirical Investigation of Purchasing Power Parity for a Transition Economy - Cambodia

This study has found an empirical support of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory for an East Asia transition economy – Cambodia. It is based on the results of cointegration among KHR/USD, Cambodia CPI, and world CPI over the monthly period May 2001-February 2009. This finding is useful for policy implications i.e. de-dollarization (and exchange rates) policy designs in Cambodia.Cambodia; Dollarization; Exchange Rates; Purchasing Power Parity

Real interest rate parity: evidence from East Asian economies relative to China

This study examines the real interest rate parity (RIP) hypothesis in the case of East Asian economies by taking China as foreign counterpart. Results obtained from panel unit root tests are in line with previous findings that are supportive of the hypothesis. The estimated half-life of the RIP deviations is 3.21 quarters, indicating RIP holds strongly in this region with respect to China. This implies that the choices and effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal policies in the East Asian economies will be very much influenced by the external factors originating from China, in additional to Japan and US as identified in other studies. Furthermore, judging from the another finding of this study that East Asian economies is more integrated with Japan than China, China has yet to further liberalize its financial system before it can overtake Japan as leading financial centre or as anchor country for common currency area in this region.Real interest rate parity;East Asia; panel unit root test

An empirical investigation of purchasing power parity for a transition economy - Cambodia

This study has found an empirical support of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory for an East Asia transition economy – Cambodia. It is based on the results of cointegration among KHR/USD, Cambodia CPI, and world CPI over the monthly period May 2001-February 2009. This finding is useful for policy implications i.e. de-dollarization (and exchange rates) policy designs in Cambodia.Cambodia; Dollarization; Exchange Rates; Purchasing Power Parity

The Performance of AlCC as an Order Selection Criterion in ARMA Time Series Models

This study is undertaken with the objective of investigating the performance of Akaike's Information Corrected Criterion (AlCC) as an order determination criterion for the selection of Autoregressive Moving-Average or ARMA (P,q) time series model. A simulation investigation was carried to determine the probability of the AlCC statistics picking up the correct model. Result obtained showed that the probability of the AlCC criterion picking up the correct model was moderately good. The problem of over parameterization existed but under parameterization was found to be minimal. Hence, for any two comparable models, it is always safe to choose the one with lower order of p and q