Fire Return Interval Within the Northern Boundary of the Larch Forest

Larch (Larix spp.) dominant forests compose a large proportion of the forests of Russia (i.e., about 40% of forested areas). These forests range from the Yenisei ridge on the west to the Pacific Ocean on the east, and from Lake Baikal on the south to the 73rd parallel in the north. Larch stands comprise the world s northern most forest at Ary-Mas (72 deg 28' N, 102 deg 15' E). Larch dominated forests occupy about 70% of the permafrost areas in Siberia. Larch forms high closure stands as well as open forests, and is found mainly over permafrost, where other tree species barely survive. Wildfires are typical for this territory with the majority occurring as ground fires due to low crown closure. Due to the thin active layer in permafrost soils and a dense lichen-moss cover, ground fires may cause stand mortality. The vast areas of larch-dominant forests is generally considered as a "carbon sink"; however, positive long-term temperature trends at higher latitudes are expected to result in an increase of fire frequency, and thus may convert this area to a source for greenhouse gases. There are recent observations regarding the increase of fire frequency within non-protected territories. Surprisingly, there are few publications on fire chronoseqences for the huge forested territory between the Ural Mountains and the Pacific Ocean. Also there is a general understanding that bimodal (late spring -- early summer and late summer-beginning of fall) fire seasonal distribution in the south becomes uni-modal (late spring -- early summer) in the north. The purpose of this study is to investigate the wildfire history at the northern edge of the zone of larch dominance

Multi-Sensor Remote Sensing of Forest Dynamics in Central Siberia

The forested regions of Siberia, Russia are vast and contain about a quarter of the world's forests that have not experienced harvesting. However, many Siberian forests are facing twin pressures of rapidly changing climate and increasing timber harvest activity. Monitoring the dynamics and mapping the structural parameters of the forest is important for understanding the causes and consequences of changes observed in these areas. Because of the inaccessibility and large extent of this forest, remote sensing data can play an important role for observing forest state and change. In Central Siberia, multi-sensor remote sensing data have been used to monitor forest disturbances and to map above-ground biomass from the Sayan Mountains in the south to the taiga-tundra boundaries in the north. Radar images from the Shuttle Imaging Radar-C (SIR-C)/XSAR mission were used for forest biomass estimation in the Sayan Mountains. Radar images from the Japanese Earth Resources Satellite-1 (JERS-1), European Remote Sensing Satellite-1 (ERS-1) and Canada's RADARSAT-1, and data from ETM+ on-board Landsat-7 were used to characterize forest disturbances from logging, fire, and insect damage in Boguchany and Priangare areas

Birch Stands Growth Increase in Western Siberia

Birch (Betula pendula Roth) growth within the Western Siberia forest-steppe was analyzed based on long-term (1897-2006) inventory data (height, diameter at breast height [dbh], and stand volume). Analysis of biometry parameters showed increased growth at the beginning of twenty-first century compared to similar stands (stands age = 40-60 years) at the end of nineteenth century. Mean height, dbh, and stem volume increased from 14 to 20 m, from 16 to 22 cm, and from approx. 63 to approx. 220 cu m/ha, respectively. Significant correlations were found between the stands mean height, dbh, and volume on the one hand, and vegetation period length (r(sub s) = 0.71 to 0.74), atmospheric CO2 concentration (r(sub s) = 0.71 to 0.76), and drought index (Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, r(sub s) = 0.33 to 0.51) on the other hand. The results obtained have revealed apparent climate-induced impacts (e.g. increase of vegetation period length and birch habitat drying due to drought increase) on the stands growth. Along with this, a high correlation of birch biometric parameters and [CO2] in ambient air indicated an effect of CO2 fertilization. Meanwhile, further drought increase may switch birch stand growth into decline and greater mortality as has already been observed within the Trans-Baikal forest-steppe ecotone

A new approach to developing a logistic regression model variables to predict tree mortality, based on tree-ring growth dynamics

The annual tree increment is one of the integral indicators of abiotic and biotic processes occurring in the forest ecosystem. The use of logistic regression models based on annual tree-ring growth data is a promising approach to studying tree mortality. The diversity of logistic variables in scientific research is a result of various choices of statistics (average, median, growth trend, etc.) and their score in the time-window for the past N (5, 10, ..., 40) years. We propose a new scheme for the formation of logistic variables that involves fixing the statistics for calculating the average and choosing two non-intersecting time-windows based on measurements of the annual tree-rings growth. The choice of non-overlapping «windows» enables setting the ratio of the average growth of annual rings of trees between the windows for different periods of time. We examined the past 41 years of tree growth. Logistic regression models are constructed on a set of pairs of non-intersecting «windows» with a limit on the values of the sensitivity and specification of at least 1.6. The calculation of the percentage prediction if a tree is living or dying was done based on the contingency table in the logistic regression model. The logistic regression models were visualized using ROC curves. The models were compared on an expert scale based on the calculated area under the ROC curves. The obtained logistic regression model was verified by the bootstrap method. The calculations were carried out for the Siberian stone pine Pinus sibirica du Tour growing in the Baikal region (the Khamar-Daban Ridge) using the R programming language. The computed logistic regression model helped us predict live and dead trees in more than 80 % of cases

Siberian Pine Decline and Mortality in Southern Siberian Mountains

The causes and resulting spatial patterns of Siberian pine mortality in eastern Kuznetzky Alatau Mountains, Siberia were analyzed based on satellite (Landsat, MODIS) and dendrochronology data. Climate variables studied included temperature, precipitation and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought index. Landsat data analysis showed that stand mortality was first detected in the year 2006 at an elevation of 650 m, and extended up to 900 m by the year 2012. Mortality was accompanied by a decrease in MODIS derived vegetation index (EVI).. The area of dead stands and the upper mortality line were correlated with increased drought. The uphill margin of mortality was limited by elevational precipitation gradients. Dead stands (i.e., >75% tree mortality) were located mainly on southern slopes. With respect to slope, mortality was observed within a 7 deg - 20 deg range with greatest mortality occurring on convex terrain. Tree radial incrementmeasurements correlate and were synchronous with SPEI (r sq = 0.37, r(sub s) = 80). Increasing synchrony between tree ring growth and SPEI indicates that drought has reduced the ecological niche of Siberian pine. The results also showed the primary role of drought stress on Siberian pine mortality. A secondary role may be played by bark beetles and root fungi attacks. The observed Siberian pine mortality is part of a broader phenomenon of "dark needle conifers" (DNC, i.e., Siberian pine, fir and spruce) decline and mortality in European Russia, Siberia, and the Russian Far East. All locations of DNC decline coincided with areas of observed drought increase. The results obtained are one of the first observations of drought-induced decline and mortality of DNC at the southern border of boreal forests. Meanwhile if model projections of increased aridity are correct DNC, within the southern part of its range may be replaced by drought-resistant Pinus silvestris and Larix sibirica

Pinus sibirica Du Tour response to climate change in the forests of the Kuznetsk Alatau Mountains

Climate change has a direct impact on the forest ecosystems of the boreal zone. Temperature increase has a stimulating effect on the advancement of a tree line along the elevation gradient, increase of tree radial increment and stand density. The object of the study was the stands formed by the Siberian pine growing in the forest-tundra ecotone of Kuznetsk Alatau Mountains. The rate of timberline and tree line advancement were estimated using GIS-technology and field research. It has been established, that the beginning of the Siberian pine advancement along the elevation gradient coincides with the period of air temperature increase. Estimated speed of tree line advancement is approximately 0.2–0.3 m/year; timberline ~ 0.5 m/year. The average radial increment after 1980 was 25 % higher than the radial increment over the same period of the previous years. At the same time after a marked increase of the radial increment in the early 1980s, a negative trend is observed up to the local minimum of 1999 (r2 = 0.52). Dendroclimatic analysis indicates a negative influence of July–September temperatures (r = –0.63) and that of winter precipitation (r = –0.81) on radial increment, while the amount of July–September precipitation (r = 0.54) and root zone wetness content during the vegetation period (r = 0.73) show positive correlation with radial increment. During the previous period from 1967 to1982, a negative effect of winter precipitation on radial increment was also noted (r = –0.69), whereas May–June temperatures demonstrated a positive effect on radial increment (r = 0.66)

Search for directional associations between Baikal Gigaton Volume Detector neutrino-induced cascades and high-energy astrophysical sources

Baikal-GVD has recently published its first measurement of the diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux, performed using high-energy cascade-like events. We further explore the Baikal-GVD cascade dataset collected in 2018-2022, with the aim to identify possible associations between the Baikal-GVD neutrinos and known astrophysical sources. We leverage the relatively high angular resolution of the Baikal-GVD neutrino telescope (2-3 deg.), made possible by the use of liquid water as the detection medium, enabling the study of astrophysical point sources even with cascade events. We estimate the telescope's sensitivity in the cascade channel for high-energy astrophysical sources and refine our analysis prescriptions using Monte-Carlo simulations. We primarily focus on cascades with energies exceeding 100 TeV, which we employ to search for correlation with radio-bright blazars. Although the currently limited neutrino sample size provides no statistically significant effects, our analysis suggests a number of possible associations with both extragalactic and Galactic sources. Specifically, we present an analysis of an observed triplet of neutrino candidate events in the Galactic plane, focusing on its potential connection with certain Galactic sources, and discuss the coincidence of cascades with several bright and flaring blazars.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

Studies of the ambient light of deep Baikal waters with Baikal-GVD

The Baikal-GVD neutrino detector is a deep-underwater neutrino telescope under construction and recently after the winter 2023 deployment it consists of 3456 optical modules attached on 96 vertical strings. This 3-dimensional array of photo-sensors allows to observe ambient light in the vicinity of the Baikal-GVD telescope that is associated mostly with water luminescence. Results on time and space variations of the luminescent activity are reviewed based on data collected in 2018-2022

Monitoring of optical properties of deep waters of Lake Baikal in 2021-2022

We present the results of the two-year (2021-2022) monitoring of absorption and scattering lengths of light with wavelength 400-620 nm within the effective volume of the deep underwater neutrino telescope Baikal-GVD, which were measured by a device Baikal-5D No.2. The Baikal-5D No.2. was installed during the 2021 winter expedition at a depth of 1180 m. The absorption and scattering lengths were measured every week in 9 spectral points. The device Baikal-5D No.2 also has the ability to measure detailed scattering and absorption spectra. The data obtained make it possible to estimate the range of changes in the absorption and scattering lengths over a sufficiently long period of time and to investigate the relationship between the processes of changes in absorption and scattering. An analysis was made of changes in absorption and scattering spectra for the period 2021-2022