Vulnerability of bangladesh to cyclones in a changing climate : potential damages and adaptation cost

This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than $2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than$50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage inthe absence of adaptation measures.Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change Economics,Science of Climate Change,Hazard Risk Management,Global Environment Facility

An Action Plan for Adaptation in Bangladesh Agriculture under Climate Change

This report is the outcome of a study titled 'An Action Plan for Adaptation in Bangladesh Agriculture under Climate Change', carried out with support from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). This report prepared by the Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) delineates an action plan to prioritize adaptation options after considering the inputs by experts and scrutiny by stakeholders. It aims to promote precision agriculture and commercialization of crop agriculture with strong institutional and financial footing to tackle climate change

Comparison of Garden Soil with Nitrogen and Potassium for Growing Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) in Glass House.

The experiment was conducted during the year 2019-20 by Vegetable Section, Agriculture Research Station (ARS) Baffa Mansehra to compare garden soil with nitrogen (Urea) and potassium (Murate of Potash) for lettuce production in glass house. Lettuce is an important summer off-season and high valued crop cultivated at District Mansehra in the months of July-August. The produce is transported to other metropolises with handsome earning,  but excessive use of minerals and synthetic fertilizers may render the produce less profitable in one or another way. Hence this experiment was designed to compare garden soil with  nitrogen and potassium doses.  It is evident from the statistical analysis that garden soil has a significant effect on  number of leaves, leaf area, seed per plant, yield per plant and yield per acre. Seed production is noticeable for garden soil when the prevailing temperature during seed formation was 250C.  In terms of leaf area maximum leaf area 576.10 cm2was recorded for garden soil while minimum leaf area 303.43 cm2 was recorded with nitrogen applied @ 200 kg ha-1 and potassium applied @ 100 kg ha-1 respectively. Maximum number of leaves 28.03 was recorded for garden soil while the minimum number 21.96 was recorded for nitrogen applied @ 200 kg ha-1 and potassium applied @ 100 kg ha-1. Seed formation was successful with mean temperature 250C in glass house for 30 days, here again garden soil surpassed nitrogen and potassium with 4.03gm plant-1. Yield per plot 3.69 kg was recorded for garden soil and the minimum value 1.1843 kg was recorded for nitrogen and potassium applied @ 200 kg ha-1 nitrogen while potassium applied @ 100 kg ha-1. Garden soil gives maximum yield of 13600 kg acre-1 compared with the lowest production 6070.5 kg acre-1 of nitrogen and potassium applied @ 200 kg ha-1 nitrogen while potassium applied @ 150 kg ha-1.  Keywords:, Lettuce, garden soil, leaf area, seed production, glass house DOI: 10.7176/CEIS/14-2-06 Publication date:May 31st 202

Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate: Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost

This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than $2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than$50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage in the absence of adaptation measures

A framework to assess plan implementation maturity with an application to flood management in Vietnam

Implementation failure is a long-known Achilles’ heel of water and flood management plans. Contemporary planning approaches address the implementation challenge by using more participatory planning processes to ensure support for plans, assuming that this support will also benefit plan implementation. A proactive analysis of possible implementation issues during the planning stage is not yet common. This paper introduces a framework based on the motivation and ability of actors, supported by concepts of triggers, threats and opportunities. A case application for flood management in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, demonstrates the use of this motivation-ability framework to assess plan implementation maturity

Rethinking sediments, tidal rivers and delta livelihoods : Tidal river management as a strategic innovation in Bangladesh

Many urbanised deltas face development challenges due to growing economies, populations and climate change. Changes in land–water strategies are often required, as ‘business-as-usual’ solutions are no longer sufficient. The aim of this paper was to study tidal river management (TRM) as a strategic innovation, and trace how it is appreciated by people and used in master plans to address congested rivers and waterlogging in Bangladesh. In this context, a strategic innovation can be categorised as having four features: (i) it is a fundamental reconceptualisation of business as usual strategies; (ii) it is rule breaking and reshapes markets; (iii) it offers value improvement for livelihoods; (iv) it is sustainable. The case study analysis was built from 17 interviews, a focus group discussion and numerous documents. The case analysis revealed that tidal river management is very different (local, natural, complex) from mainstream engineering strategies for tidal rivers and polder systems, and is strongly supported by local people for its potential livelihood improvement. The paper concludes that tidal river management has strategic potential, though is hardly recognised in master plans. To advance practice, reconceptualisations are needed that focus on the diverse benefits of TRM, such as restored tidal rivers, flora and fauna. Further research could elaborate livelihood models that thrive on these benefits, and evaluate their costs and benefits accordingly.</p

A framework to assess plan implementation maturity with an application to flood management in Vietnam

<p>Implementation failure is a long-known Achilles’ heel of water and flood management plans. Contemporary planning approaches address the implementation challenge by using more participatory planning processes to ensure support for plans, assuming that this support will also benefit plan implementation. A proactive analysis of possible implementation issues during the planning stage is not yet common. This paper introduces a framework based on the motivation and ability of actors, supported by concepts of triggers, threats and opportunities. A case application for flood management in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, demonstrates the use of this motivation-ability framework to assess plan implementation maturity.</p

Rethinking sediments, tidal rivers and delta livelihoods : Tidal river management as a strategic innovation in Bangladesh

Many urbanised deltas face development challenges due to growing economies, populations and climate change. Changes in land–water strategies are often required, as ‘business-as-usual’ solutions are no longer sufficient. The aim of this paper was to study tidal river management (TRM) as a strategic innovation, and trace how it is appreciated by people and used in master plans to address congested rivers and waterlogging in Bangladesh. In this context, a strategic innovation can be categorised as having four features: (i) it is a fundamental reconceptualisation of business as usual strategies; (ii) it is rule breaking and reshapes markets; (iii) it offers value improvement for livelihoods; (iv) it is sustainable. The case study analysis was built from 17 interviews, a focus group discussion and numerous documents. The case analysis revealed that tidal river management is very different (local, natural, complex) from mainstream engineering strategies for tidal rivers and polder systems, and is strongly supported by local people for its potential livelihood improvement. The paper concludes that tidal river management has strategic potential, though is hardly recognised in master plans. To advance practice, reconceptualisations are needed that focus on the diverse benefits of TRM, such as restored tidal rivers, flora and fauna. Further research could elaborate livelihood models that thrive on these benefits, and evaluate their costs and benefits accordingly.</p

Assessing the societal adoptability of participatory water management: an application of the Motivation and Ability (MOTA) framework

Exploring whether society is sufficiently equipped and motivated to adopt planned interventions is vital for modern plan development trajectories. The Motivation and Ability (MOTA) framework offers a tool to assess the societal adoptability of plans by exploring stakeholders' motivations and abilities. It was originally developed to assess plan implementation feasibility for structural measures of flood management in the Mekong Delta. Further development is necessary before applying the tool in other contexts and for other types of planning interventions. Institutional measures like participatory water management (PWM) have long been recognized as essential elements for water management, but have so far also remained out of the reach of conventional planning assessment tools such as cost-benefit or cost-effectiveness analyses. This research, therefore, aims at extending the MOTA tool in the context of PWM reforms in Bangladesh. It does this by, first, further detailing the MOTA components and identifying indicators for quantification and, second, an expert validation and application of this framework for coastal communities in Bangladesh. Our results suggest that the MOTA framework is capable of informing policymakers and implementing agencies about how to enhance the stakeholders' motivation and ability to ensure an enduring implementation of PWM reforms.Policy Analysi

Ecological and economic significance of swamp vegetation nursery for successful reforestation program: an insight from Bangladesh

ABSTRACTThere is a growing interest in understanding and establishing forest nurseries in swamp ecosystem areas of Bangladesh. This study aims to evaluate the socio-economic and ecological contribution of swamp small-scale tree nurseries. The result revealed that government and non-government organizations established swamp nurseries in Bangladesh. Swamp nursery producer generates an annual average net profit of USD 4745. Small-scale swamp nursery owners benefited in multiple forms: subsistence, house construction, savings purposes, and, most importantly, expansion of their businesses. However, the ecological aspect of seedling production was not satisfactory because of the lack of facilities such as skilled labor supply, access to high-quality germplasm, technical skills, nursery facilities, etc. In the nurseries observed, only two dominant swamp tree species, locally known as Hijol (Barringtonia acutangular) and Koroch (Pongamia pinnata) seedlings were found. In most cases, those seedlings were morphologically unhealthy, and the root structure was deformed, which was identified as a major problem of reforestation programs in wetland areas. Therefore, to make the reforestation program successful and create livelihoods for the rural poor in the wetland areas, there is an urgent need to develop quality seedlings-based swamp nurseries, which are only possible through proper nursery management techniques