A Tacticians Guide to Conflict, Vol. 1: Advancing Explanations & Predictions of Intrastate Conflict

Intrastate conflict is an ever-evolving problem – causes, explanation, and predictions are increasingly murky as traditional methods of analysis focus on structural issues as precursors of conflict. Often times these theories do not consider the underlying meso and micro dynamics that can provide vital insights into the phenomena. Tactical decision-makers are left using models that rely on highly aggregated, country level data to create proper courses of actions (COAs) to address or predict conflict. The shortcoming is that conflicts morph quite rapidly and structural variables can struggle capture such dynamic changes. To address this some tacticians are using big data and advances in machine learning techniques to provide highly accuracy predictions of conflict, however these models lack explanatory power. Decision makers need a solution that can provide accurate explanations and predictions at higher frequencies and geographic granularity – essentially theory informed machine learning models. To achieve this, relational data, constructed from event data and social network analysis (SNA) is used to provide more granular and higher frequency data. Using this data and SNA, structural factors of power, parity, and satisfaction specified in Benson & Kugler (1998) and Lemke (2008) are recreated. Initial testing provides evidence that new measures capture results found in theory. Next the theoretical model was expanded using a complex adaptive systems framework to incorporate meso and micro levels of analysis. Outcomes suggest that examination conflict from all three levels of analysis provides higher explanatory power when compared to just a structural approach. Taking insights gleaned from statistical analysis, both the theory and CAS models were used in creating a classification and regression tree as well as random forest model for prediction. Results suggest that a CAS random forest model provides highly accurate temporally frequent, geographically specific predictions of conflict. Further the parsimonious nature of the model and structure of data means that tactical decision makers can make month-to-month predictions of conflict and explain why onset occurred. Further, by leveraging data heterogeneity, predictions can be made province-by-province, extracting different drivers of onset unique to each region. Tactical decision makers can create more nuanced and specific COAs better tailored to specific areas, rather then general policy. This research provides evidence that an extended approach using social network analysis and complex adaptive systems framework can provide a more detailed explanation of conflict as well and provide highly accurate, geographically specific, month-to-month predictions. The goal is to develop a theory informed, enhanced, replicable and area agnostic framework for producing higher accuracy conflict forecasts, explanations of conflict as well as more granular temporal and geographic stability predictions – aiding the move from strategic to tactical decision making

"Worship at Times of Killings and Confusion Equals Migration to Me" /

This research is concerned with the study of Prophet Mohammad's Hadith "Worship at times of killings and confusion equals migration to me" from the perspective of narrative and text criteria. It attempts to elaborate the Hadith's benefits and related academic issues. It also shows the Islamic approach to dealing with afflictions / confusing trials. It aims to rank the Hadith in terms of authenticity and weakness, to show the similarity between worship at trial times and migration to the Prophet, and to highlight the Islamic approach to trials. The research applies an analytical deductive methodology. It has arrived at the following conclusions: Prophet Mohammad cared for his nation, guided it, conveyed to it what guarantees success in this world and the hereafter; the Qur'an and the Sunnah contain the approach that must be followed at times of trials and killing; at such times, acts of worship and righteous deeds are important; and it is important to test information, especially that circulating in the social media. The research makes recommendations, amongst which are the following: organize conferences and forums on causes and solutions for affliction trials; conducting related research projects by universities and research centers to elaborate the Islamic approach at trial times; and make use of the mainstream and social media to reinforce the values of social cohesion, preventing confusion and dissension

The Effect of Television and Electronic Advertisements on The Mental Image of Women Among A Group of Female Media Professionals

The study aimed to know the effect of television and electronic advertisements broadcast on Arab television screens and on websites on the mental image formed by a group of female media professionals affiliated with the Arab Media Center about women, by answering the sub-questions of the study, the study adopted the descriptive approach through the study tool, which is the questionnaire designed to answer the questions of the study through the respondents, that consisted of 200 female individuals who watch TV advertisements and follow them on the website, and after filling out the questionnaires, analyzing and interpreting them, the following conclusions were reached, the reasons for the respondent’s viewing of advertisements varied, but the largest percentage 94%, was that they watch advertisements involuntarily while watching TV or electronically presented material. This is what is classified as accidental exposure. The percentage of those who believe that the use of women in advertising greatly distorts the image of women is 66.5%. 91% of respondents agreed that women's rights associations and organizations must exert pressure to preserve the image of women and to educate society about their true role through various media, with a rate of 89.5%, the respondents expressed that they were shy when watching an advertisement that aroused in front of family members. 89% of the respondents believe that the ads that appear on social media and YouTube contain in their content greater freedom, and therefore the size of their distance from Arab values is greater, and in the same percentage came the emphasis on the need for some competent authorities to implement training courses for Arab ad directors to comply with our customs and traditions. The percentage of supporters decreased to 30% for the idea that advertising can only be successful by showing the charms of women, the woman's mind by presenting her as a consumer who does not care and only thinks about her elegance and beauty 30%. The study recommended that if a woman must appear in the advertisement, then this appearance should be appropriate to her reality and reflect the real role of women in society. Women's rights associations and organizations must exert pressure to preserve the image of women and educate society about their true role through the various media

Role of magnetic resonance imaging in loco-regional evaluation of cancer rectum, pre and post neoadjuvant therapy

The high rate of local recurrence is considered the major concern and challenge regarding the surgical treatment of cancer rectum. The target of use of pre-operative neoadjuvant therapy is reducing tumour size and improving its resectability in order to reduce local recurrence risk and improve survival rates.Plans for management and treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer showed clear changes after use of neoadjuvant therapy. This in turn necessitates accurate evaluation of the tumour parameters before and after use of combined chemotherapy and radiation therapy (CRT).Aim of study is to assess the initial stage of cancer rectum then its response to neoadjuvant therapy using MRI, prior to operative interference. This is followed by post-operative histo-pathological data correlation.Methods: This study was conducted on 50 patients. All patients were examined by high-resolution T2- weighted images. Turbo-spin-echo sequences taken in sagittal plane, axial plane perpendicular to tumor axis and coronal plane parallel to tumor axis or anal canal. All are according to tumor height. Diffusion weighted images (DWI) performed in all cases.Results: Following neoadjuvant therapy, down-staging was detected in this study in more than 90% of patients regarding the T2 signal and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value of the tumour, also status of depth of involvement of meso-rectal fascia (MRF), circumferential resection margin (CRM), extramural vascular invasion (EMVI) and nodal involvement.Conclusion: Pre-operative MRI in cancer rectum is irreplaceable to assess initial staging and postneoadjuvant therapy response thus improving surgical results.Keywords:  MRI, CRT, DWI, ADC, MRF, CRM, EMV

Autologous Pericardial Band for Tricuspid Valve Annuloplasty: Midterm Results

Background: Even though tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is a frequent cardiac valve disorder, and tricuspid valve annuloplasty (TVA) has been evolved to manage TR for more than 50 years, there is still a substantial controversy regarding the best durable method for TVA. We reported our midterm (3 years) outcomes of TVA using autologous pericardial (AP) band comparing it with DeVega annuloplasty for the management of functional TR. Methods: Between January 2017 and November 2018, about 175 cases with moderate or more TR underwent TVA as a part of primary left-sided valve replacement surgery. Autologous pericardial (AP) TVA was performed in 100 patients, and DeVega TVA in 75 patients. Results: Both groups are comparable as regards preoperative characteristics. Immediate postoperatively, regarding NYHA class, degree of TR, ejection fraction, and pulmonary artery systolic pressure, there was a marked improvement within the 2 groups compared to the preoperative values, without a significant difference between both groups. 94% of patients completed the follow-up period. In hospital death was 2% in the AP group, and 1% in the DeVega group. The AP group showed a marked improvement in the mean degree of TR at the same follow-up period compared to the DeVega group, 12% patients of the AP group and 21% patients of the De Vega group had 3+ or 4+ TR at 3 years postoperative follow up. There was a marked improvement in the Diastolic tricuspid annuloplasty diameter in the AP group compared to the DeVega group. There were 6.3% late deaths in our study. Conclusion:  TVA with an AP was more durable than the DeVega in avoiding postoperative TR progression on the midterm results

Scheduling Irrigation Using Automatic Tensiometers for Pea Crop

Recent technological advances have made soil water sensors available for efficient and automatic operation of irrigation systems. Automatic soil water sensor-based irrigation seeks to maintain a desired soil water range in the root zone that is optimal for plant growth. Automatic tensiometers were buried at 30 cm depth under the sandy soil surface of Nubaria experimental station of NRC, subjected to drip irrigation system to automatically schedule irrigation for pea crop.  Soil moisture potentials 70, 75 and 85 kPa, represented 3 irrigation treatments and 3 Potassium treatments 50, 75 and 100% of 100 kg fed.-1, the officially recommended amount of Potassium fertilization for a pea crop by the ministry of agriculture in Egypt for sandy soils, were scheduled and added with the drip irrigation portions. The obtained results revealed that using soil moisture potentials 70, 75 and 85 kPa were equivalent to 85, 75 and 60% of the field capacity of the soil, respectively. The average crop factor (Kc) was calculated for each growth stage and the water applied according to the depletion percentage for each water treatment. All the applications were adjusted on control panel which was connected to an electric valve for each treatment. Water use efficiency, productivity, growth parameters, K use efficiency were calculated for each treatment. Automatic scheduling of drip irrigation at 85% F.C. using irrometer tensioner and 75% K fertilizers led to saving 16% to 35% of supplied irrigation water compared to uncontrolled drip irrigation method, with an increase in the yield of the crop estimated by 20%.Keywords: automatic irrigation, scheduling irrigation, automatic tensiometer, potassium fertigation, drip irrigation

Assessment of the antimicrobial and free radical scavenging activities of Moluccella spinosa, Helichrysum sanguineum, and Styrax officinalis folkloric medicinal plants from Palestine

The emergence of pathogenic microbes with increased resistance to established antibiotics provides a major incentive for the discovery of new antimicrobial agents. Herbals may provide valuable solutions for this global problem. In addition, the replacement of harmful synthetic antioxidants with natural ones may prevent various serious diseases. The present investigation describes for the first time the antioxidant and antimicrobial activities of the aqueous and organic extracts of Helichrysum sanguineum, Moluccella spinosa and Styrax officinalis plants aerial parts. The free radical scavenging activity was estimated using the 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl method, while the antimicrobial activity was evaluated against selected microbial strains from American Type Culture Collection and clinical isolates such as Shigella sonnie, Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcuss feacium, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Candida albicans, Epidermophyton floccosum and Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) using minimum inhibitory concentration assay. A mixture of phytochemical compounds was found in all of the studied plants extracts which also showed remarkable potentials of antioxidant and antimicrobial activities. The current study provides initial data that justify the use and importance of these plants in the Palestinian traditional medicine. In addition, it provides evidence that the aqueous and organic extracts of H. sanguineum, M. spinosa and S. officinalis exhibited interesting antioxidant activity comparing with Trolox. Furthermore, the organic extract of H. sanguineum strongly exhibited bacterial growth of S. aureus, E. faecium and MRSA which suggested to be used as antibiotic alternative or as sufficient natural food preservative.The authors acknowledge the assistance of the technicians Mohamad Arar and Linda Esa

Editorial: Methods and application in cardiovascular and smooth muscle pharmacology: 2021

Despite significant advances in basic, translational, and clinical research tackling heart disease, cardiovascular pathologies remain among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide, being responsible for one-third of global deaths as estimated by the WHO (Organization, 2021). The complexity of risk factors and pathways underlying the development of cardiovascular disorders (CVDs) limits the efficacy of a given therapeutic intervention and necessitates combined pharmacological approaches, as well as lifestyle modification to provide a reasonable health impact (Arnett et al., 2019). Be that as it may, there remains a considerable room for scientific inquiry in pursuit of novel and more refined avenues to prevent, diagnose, mitigate, and reverse different forms of cardiovascular ailment, as well as optimize patient management. Indeed, such a need for research in this field was even further emphasized as the world faced heightened health challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic with cardiovascular complications being among the most serious consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection (Wehbe et al., 2020)

Bilosomes as a promising nanoplatform for oral delivery of an alkaloid nutraceutical:improved pharmacokinetic profile and snowballed hypoglycemic effect in diabetic rats

Diabetes mellitus is a life-threatening metabolic disease. At the moment, there is no effective treatment available to combat it. In this study, we aimed to develop berberine-loaded bilosomes (BER-BLS) to boost the oral bioavailability and therapeutic efficacy of berberine, a natural antidiabetic medication. The BER-BLS was fabricated using a thin-film hydration strategy and optimized using a central composite design (face-centered). The average vesicle size, entrapment efficiency, and surface charge of the optimized BER-BLS preparation were 196.5 nm, 89.7%, (−) 36.4 mV, respectively. In addition, it exhibited higher stability and better-sustained release of berberine than the berberine solution (BER-SOL). BER-BLS and BER-SOL were administered to streptozocin-induced diabetic rats. The optimized BER-BLS formulation had a significant hypoglycemic impact, with a maximum blood glucose decrease of 41%, whereas BER-SOL only reduced blood glucose by 19%. Furthermore, the pharmacological effect of oral BER-BLS and BER-SOL corresponded to 99.3% and 31.7%, respectively, when compared to subcutaneous insulin (1 IU). A pharmacokinetic analysis found a 6.4-fold rise in the relative bioavailability of berberine in BER-BLS when compared to BER-SOL at a dosage of 100 mg/kg body weight. Histopathological investigation revealed that BER-BLS is suitable for oral administration. Our data demonstrate that BLS is a potential nanocarrier for berberine administration, enhancing its oral bioavailability and antidiabetic activity

The SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Activates the Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor-Mediated Signaling

The coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). At the molecular and cellular levels, the SARS-CoV-2 uses its envelope glycoprotein, the spike S protein, to infect the target cells in the lungs via binding with their transmembrane receptor, the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). Here, we wanted to investigate if other molecular targets and pathways may be used by SARS-CoV-2. We investigated the possibility of the spike 1 S protein and its receptor-binding domain (RBD) to target the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and its downstream signaling pathway in vitro using the lung cancer cell line (A549 cells). Protein expression and phosphorylation were examined upon cell treatment with the recombinant full spike 1 S protein or RBD. We demonstrate for the first time the activation of EGFR by the Spike 1 protein associated with the phosphorylation of the canonical Extracellular signal-regulated kinase1/2 (ERK1/2) and AKT kinases and an increase in survivin expression controlling the survival pathway. Our study suggests the putative implication of EGFR and its related signaling pathways in SARS-CoV-2 infectivity and COVID-19 pathology. This may open new perspectives in the treatment of COVID-19 patients by targeting EGFR