Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

A Case-Control Study on Intimate Partner Violence during Pregnancy and Low Birth Weight, Southeast Ethiopia

Introduction. Violence against women has serious consequences for their reproductive and sexual health including birth outcomes. In Ethiopia, though the average parity of pregnant women is much higher than in other African countries, the link between intimate partner violence with low birth weight is unknown. Objective. The aim of this study was to examine the association between intimate partner violence and low birth weight among pregnant women. Method. Hospital based case-control study was conducted among 387 mothers (129 cases and 258 controls). Anthropometric measurements were taken both from mothers and their live births. The association between intimate partner violence and birth weight was computed through bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses and statistical significance was declared at P<0.05. Result. Out of 387 interviewed mothers, 100 (25.8%) had experienced intimate partner violence during their index pregnancy period. Relatively more mothers of low birth weight infants were abused (48%) compared with controls (16.4%). Those mothers who suffered acts of any type of intimate partner violence during pregnancy were three times more likely to have a newborn with low birth weight (95% CI; (1.57 to 7.18)). The association between overall intimate partner violence and LBW was adjusted for potential confounder variables. Conclusion. This research result gives insight for health professional about the importance of screening for intimate partner violence during pregnancy. Health care providers should consider violence in their practice and try to identify women at risk

Clean and Safe Healthcare Environment: Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice of Infection Prevention and Control among Health Workforce at North Showa Zone Oromiya Region

Background. Infection prevention and control practice (IPCP) is essential for healthcare safety and quality service delivery. The Ethiopian government has already put in place programs and initiatives for clean and safe healthcare facilities. However, in the North Showa Zone of the Oromiya Region, the infection prevention and control practice level was not well understood. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practice of infection prevention and control practice among the health workforce (HWF) in North Shoa healthcare facilities (NSHCFs) environment. Methods. Healthcare facility-based cross-sectional study design was employed. Structured and pretested self-administered questionnaires were distributed for 373 health workforce. Three hospitals and six health centers were randomly selected, and the study participants were selected by systematic sampling technique. Data were entered into Epi-data version 3.5.2 and then exported to SPSS version 23 for analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine the associated factors with infection prevention practice, and a p value of less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results. A total of 361 (96.8%) health workforce responded to self-administered questionnaires. About 55.70% of study participants had good knowledge, 59.3% of them had a positive attitude, and 46.8% had a good infection prevention practice. Age category of 20–29(AOR = 4.08, 95%, CI = (1.97, 8.49)), female participants (AOR = 3.87, 95%, CI = (1.91, 7.86)), single participants (AOR = 3.89, 95%, CI = (1.92, 7.87)), having greater than ten years of working experience (AOR = 3.10, 95% CI = (1.19, 8.10)), positive attitude (AOR = 10.07, 95% CI = (4.82, 21.05)), and availability of water at working area (AOR = 2.27, 95% CI = (1.18, 4.35)) were significantly associated with good infection prevention practice. Conclusion. In this study, a significant number of health workers had low knowledge, negative attitudes, and poor infection prevention practices. Female participants, higher work experience, a positive attitude, and water availability in the healthcare facilities were positively associated with infection prevention and control practice. Healthcare facilities should be continued capacitating the health workforce on infection prevention and control measures and equipping health facilities with infection prevention materials

Drug related characteristics of HIV patients who had ART treatment failures and success in Bale Zone hospitals, South East Ethiopia; 2015.

<p>Drug related characteristics of HIV patients who had ART treatment failures and success in Bale Zone hospitals, South East Ethiopia; 2015.</p

Exploring enablers and barriers to breast self-examination among women in the North Shewa Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia: a qualitative study

Abstract Breast cancer (BC) is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide and the second most common cancer overall. Breast self-examination (BSE) is one of the cheapest methods used for the early detection of BC in asymptomatic women. More than 90% of cases of BC can be detected by women themselves. This reality stresses the importance of BSE as the key BC detection mechanism. However, in Ethiopia, most of the BE studies were not conducted among women in the general population. Therefore, this study aimed to explore enablers and barriers to breast self-examination among women in the North Shewa Zone, Oromia. A descriptive qualitative study design was conducted from August 1, 2022, to September 30, 2022. Five focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with 46 women from one selected district in the North Shewa Zone, Oromia. A Purposive sampling technique was used to select participants for FGD. The audio-recorded data were transcribed verbatim to “Afan Oromo”. Transcribed data were translated into English. The data were manually coded into themes and analyzed manually by using inductive thematic analysis. The findings of the study were discussed under five themes of enablers and three themes of barriers. The five themes of enablers were knowledge about BC, knowledge about BSE, experience of BSE practice, perceived susceptibility, and perceived benefit of BSE practice. The four themes of barriers were low knowledge of BSE practice, misconceptions about BSE practice, and fear of detecting BC. These findings suggest that targeted health education programs, collaboration between healthcare providers and local stakeholders, and the availability of support services can play a crucial role in overcoming barriers and encouraging BSE practice for early detection of breast abnormalities

Predictors of Treatment Failure among Adult Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Clients in Bale Zone Hospitals, South Eastern Ethiopia

<div><p>Background</p><p>Treatment failure defined as progression of disease after initiation of ART or when the anti-HIV medications can’t control the infection. One of the major concerns over the rapid scaling up of ART is the emergence and transmission of HIV drug resistant strains at the population level due to treatment failure. This could lead to the failure of basic ART programs. Thus this study aimed to investigate the predictors of treatment failure among adult ART clients in Bale Zone Hospitals, South east Ethiopia.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Retrospective cohort study was employed in four hospitals of Bale zone named Goba, Robe, Ginir and Delomena. A total of 4,809 adult ART clients were included in the analysis from these four hospitals. Adherence was measured by pill count method. The Kaplan Meier (KM) curve was used to describe the survival time of ART patients without treatment failure. Bivariate and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used for identifying associated factors of treatment failure.</p><p>Result</p><p>The incidence rate of treatment failure was found 9.38 (95% CI 7.79–11.30) per 1000 person years. Male ART clients were more likely to experience treatment failure as compared to females [AHR = 4.49; 95% CI: (2.61–7.73)].Similarly, lower CD4 count (<100 m³/dl) at initiation of ART was found significantly associated with higher odds of treatment failure [AHR = 3.79; 95% CI: (2.46–5.84).Bedridden [AHR = 5.02; 95% CI: (1.98–12.73)] and ambulatory [AHR = 2.12; 95% CI: (1.08–4.07)] patients were more likely to experience treatment failure as compared to patients with working functional status. TB co-infected clients had also higher odds to experience treatment failure [AHR = 3.06; 95% CI: (1.72–5.44)]. Those patients who had developed TB after ART initiation had higher odds to experience treatment failure as compared to their counter parts [AHR = 4.35; 95% CI: (1.99–9.54]. Having other opportunistic infection during ART initiation was also associated with higher odds of experiencing treatment failure [AHR = 7.0, 95% CI: (3.19–15.37)]. Similarly having fair [AHR = 4.99 95% CI: (1.90–13.13)] and poor drug adherence [AHR = 2.56; 95% CI: (1.12–5.86)]were significantly associated with higher odds of treatment failure as compared to clients with good adherence.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>The rate of treatment failure in Bale zone hospitals needs attention. Prevention and control of TB and other opportunistic infections, promotion of ART initiation at higher CD4 level, and better functional status, improving drug adherence are important interventions to reduce treatment failure among ART clients in Southeastern Ethiopia.</p></div

Socio-demographic characteristics of HIV patients who had ART treatment failures and success in Bale Zone hospitals, South East Ethiopia; 2015.

<p>Socio-demographic characteristics of HIV patients who had ART treatment failures and success in Bale Zone hospitals, South East Ethiopia; 2015.</p

Clinical characteristics of HIV patients who had ART treatment failures and success in Bale Zone hospitals, South East Ethiopia; 2015.

<p>Clinical characteristics of HIV patients who had ART treatment failures and success in Bale Zone hospitals, South East Ethiopia; 2015.</p

Drug related characteristics of HIV patients who had ART treatment failures and success in Bale Zone hospitals, South East Ethiopia; 2015.

<p>Drug related characteristics of HIV patients who had ART treatment failures and success in Bale Zone hospitals, South East Ethiopia; 2015.</p