Capital Inflows and Asset Prices - A Country Study of the United States, Switzerland and Denmark

Capital inflows can have beneficial effects for the receiving country, such as fostering economic growth. But they can also have severe negative effects, such as increasing financial vulnerability and overall macroeconomic instability. There is a widespread perception among academics as well as policymakers that capital inflows are correlated with asset prices. This essay aims to examine if there is a long-run relationship between capital inflows and asset prices. Three different measures of capital inflows and two measures of asset prices are examined, using time series data from the United States, Switzerland and Denmark. The time period studied is 1980Q1-2014Q4 for the United States and Denmark, and due to data limitations 2000Q1-2014Q4 for Switzerland. The empirical results confirm that there is a long-run relationship between house prices and aggregated capital inflows for all three countries, but not for share prices or disaggregated capital inflows. The long-run relationship is estimated by a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The estimation results show strong evidence of a structural break in the years leading up to the global financial crisis of 2007-2008. The analysis of the time period preceding the structural break show that the factors determining the long-run relationship differ across the three countries. Furthermore, cross-country heterogeneity is found in the response to a disequilibrium

The IMF and economic growth: An analysis of lending to developing countries during 1983-2010

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is an international organization working for economic cooperation and stability. The IMF’s work is aimed at both temporary credit access and structural reforms to increase economic growth. In theory, the IMF can influence economic growth via several channels. This paper identifies four; provide money through loan disbursements, work as an insurance for investors, attach policy conditions to programs and monitor the world economy. The analysis consists of a panel of 86 developing countries during the period of 1983-2010, employing both OLS and 2SLS to control for possible endogeneity in the estimations. Performing a regression analysis on the overall effect of IMF programs on economic growth, a significantly positive result is confirmed. This thesis then opens up to a new input by controlling for the effect on growth during the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, for six different loan types and three large regions in the world. The results show a significantly positive effect on economic growth during the 1980s and 2000s. Two lending arrangements have confirmed positive effects, the Stand-by arrangements (SBA) and Extended credit facility (ECF). Finally the IMF is successful in raising economic growth in Asia and South America. In summary, this thesis concludes that the IMF is successful in promoting growth

The significance of the Welsh dimension: Pioneering of comprehensive education in Anglesey, circa 1930-1953

Despite Anglesey's pioneering role as the first local authority in England and Wales to introduce a fully comprehensive education system (1953), it has received little attention in the historiography. It has often been assumed that ‘economy and efficiency’ were the predominant driving forces behind this new education policy, but this article acknowledges the complexities of the re-organization process and illustrates how political intervention at the local level was influenced by discussions related to the fact that Anglesey was both a rural and a Welsh local authority. This additional dimension to the pioneering of comprehensive schooling in Anglesey sheds new light on the rationale of the comprehensive scheme

Behaviour of reindeer as an indicator of an adaptation to feeding

Abstract: We assessed behaviour of reindeer affected by nutritional deprivation and how they adapted to various feeding strategies. The activity pattern of 61 penned eight month old female reindeer calves was observed during 20 of a total of 42 experimental days in winter 1997. The dominant activities were lying, ruminating, intake of feed and water, and standing. Few recordings of agonistic behaviour or snow intake occured. Restricted feed intake, half the ad lib. ration of a lichen-based diet, affected the eating behaviour of the reindeer, and more animals were standing and fewer lying compared to reindeer fed ad lib. Lack of energy in the diet correlated with animals lying curled up (lying with the muzzle close to the hind legs). This behaviour could be a useful complement to other measurements and registrations when studying adaptations to various feeding regimens.Abstract in Swedish/Sammanfattning:Syftet med studien var att undersöka om, och i så fall hur renars beteende påverkades av otillräckligt näringsintag och vid anpassning till olika utfodringsstrategier. Aktivitetsmönstret hos 61 inhägnade åtta månader gamla honrenkalvar studerades under 20 av totalt 42 försöksdagar. De vanligaste beteendekategorierna genom hela försöket var ligga, idissla, intag av foder och vatten samt stå passivt. Endast ett fåtal observationer av aggressivt beteende och snöätande registrerades. En begränsad giva dvs. halva mängden av fodergivan vid fri tillgång av en lavbaserad diet påverkade djuren ätbeteende. Dessutom observerades fler djur stå passivt medan färre låg jämfört med kontrollgruppen. Under första fasen av utfodring efter restriktionsperioden låg fler djur låg ihoprullade (med mulen tätt intill bakbenet) jämfört med kontrollgruppen, vilket tolkades som ett tecken på energibrist. Beteendestudierna visade sig vara ett värdefullt komplement till övriga mätningar och provtagningar vid studier av renars anpassning till olika utfodringsregimer

Long-term effects of liming on crop yield, plant diseases, soil structure and risk of phosphorus leaching

This study examined the long-term effects of applying structure lime (mixture of ~80% CaCO3 and 20% Ca(OH)2) and ground limestone (CaCO3) on soil aggregate stability and risk of phosphorus (P) losses 5–7 years after liming, incidence of soil-borne diseases and yield in winter wheat (Tritium aestivum), oilseed rape (Brassica napus) and sugar beet (Beta vulgaris). Lime was applied in 13 field trials in Sweden 2013–2015 and soil characteristics and crop yield were monitored until 2021. Seedbed (0–4 cm depth) aggregate (2–5 mm size) stability was improved to the same extent with both lime treatments compared to the untreated control, sampled 5–7 years after liming. Analyses and estimations of different P fractions (total P, PO4-P, and particulate P) in leachate following simulated rainfall events on undisturbed topsoil cores sampled 6–8 years after liming revealed lower total P and particulate P concentrations in both lime treatments compared to the untreated control. Two sugar beet trial sites with soil pH ≤7.2 before liming showed an increase in sugar yield for structure lime and ground limestone as an effect of increased concentration of soil potassium (K-AL) and/or lower Aphanomyces root rot potential compared to the untreated control. The yield of winter wheat was not affected by the application of either type of lime at sites with pH >7.2 but the yield of oilseed rape decreased after the application of structure lime

Liming alkaline clay soils: effects on soil structure, nutrients, barley growth and yield

Liming before cultivation of sugar beets is favourable even on alkaline soils but knowledge of response in other crops is lacking. Therefore, effects of ground limestone (GL) and structure lime (SL1 slaked lime or SL2 mix of ground limestone and slaked lime) were evaluated in southern Sweden on soil structure, growth and nutrient concentration in barley under four fertilisation strategies 1.5–2 years after application. All lime products increased aggregate stability, but with variations between locations. A lower proportion of large aggregates was found in both limed treatments, and a higher proportion of small aggregates in SL. In barley, grain yield was unaffected while shoot numbers and biomass in first node stage increased for GL and biomass increased further for SL. Structure lime increased potassium concentration in plants in first node stage, due to more potassium in the product. Both lime types increased molybdenum concentration. Ground limestone reduced zinc concentration compared with no liming. Finer seedbed tilth and increased aggregate stability may explain increased biomass for GL. Higher potassium content in SL might be a further explanation. No interactions between liming and fertilisation were found. In conclusion, on the soil types studied, no change of fertilisation strategy is needed due to liming

Pioneering comprehensive schooling. The politics of education:reform and response on Anglesey circa 1935-1974

This thesis examines the development of Anglesey’s pioneering scheme of comprehensive education between 1935 and 1974. It scrutinises the contributing factors that permitted Anglesey to become the first local authority to introduce a fully comprehensive system of secondary education in 1953. The political process behind educational developments is analysed, with particular focus on the relationship between local and central government. Due to the island’s prominent role as a pioneer of comprehensive schooling, this local case study is also positioned within the wider educational context of the time. The broadly chronological approach of the study shows the Local Education Authority’s (LEA) early support of multilateralism, and its successful resistance to the desires of the Board of Education (BoE) throughout the 1930s and into the 1940s. The implementation of the pioneering scheme in 1953 demonstrated continuity rather than change. It is emphasised that the exceptional circumstances which existed on Anglesey was the predominant reason why such an experimental scheme was allowed to go ahead. The early introduction of a comprehensive system guaranteed Anglesey a prominent place within the broader educational debate during the 1950s and 1960s. The thesis evaluates the significant interest and scrutiny the education system engendered, and the interrelationship between local developments and the wider educational debate. This work reveals how issues were emerging in Anglesey’s comprehensive schools during the latter half of the 1960s and the early 1970s. It analyses how Anglesey’s comprehensive scheme was becoming a cause for concern locally, at the very time that central government expressed its official support for comprehensive schools. Paradoxically, the LEA’s reservations also coincided with Anglesey’s case being used in the national press to justify and strengthen comprehensive reform, showing the discrepancy between the focus of the national debate and the reality of comprehensive schooling in Britain at this time

Genetic prediction of postpartum diabetes in women with gestational diabetes mellitus

Aims: To examine whether genetic variants that predispose individuals to type 2 diabetes (T2D) could predict the development of diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Methods: 13 SNPs (FTO rs8050136, CDKAL1 rs7754840 and rs7756992, CDKN2A/2B rs10811661, HHEX rs1111875, IGF2BP2 rs1470579 and rs4402960, SLC30A8 rs13266634, TCF7L2 rs7903146, PPARG rs1801282, GCK rs1799884, HNF1A rs1169288, and KCNJ11 rs5219) were genotyped in 793 women with GDM after a median follow-up of 57 months. Results: After adjustment for age and ethnicity, the TCF7L2 rs7903146 and the FTO rs8050136 variants significantly predicted postpartum diabetes; hazard ratio (95% confidence interval 1.29 (1.01-1.66) and 1.36 (1.06-1.74), respectively (additive model) versus 1.45 (1.01-2.08) and 1.56 (1.06-2.29) (dominant model)). Adjusting for BMI attenuated the effect of the FTO variant, suggesting that the effect was mediated through its effect on BMI. Combining all risk alleles to a weighted risk score was significantly associated with the risk of postpartum diabetes (hazard ratio 1.11, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.18, p = 0.00016 after adjustment for age and ethnicity). Conclusions: The TCF7L2 rs7903146 and FTO rs8050136 polymorphisms, and particularly a weighted risk score of T2D risk alleles, predict diabetes after GDM. Further studies in other populations are needed to confirm our results. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved

Pregnancy to postpartum transition of serum metabolites in women with gestational diabetes

Context Gestational diabetes is commonly linked to development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). There is a need to characterize metabolic changes associated with gestational diabetes in order to find novel biomarkers for T2DM. Objective To find potential pathophysiological mechanisms and markers for progression from gestational diabetes mellitus to T2DM by studying the metabolic transition from pregnancy to postpartum. Design The metabolic transition profile from pregnancy to postpartum was characterized in 56 women by mass spectrometry-based metabolomics; 11 women had gestational diabetes mellitus, 24 had normal glucose tolerance, and 21 were normoglycaemic but at increased risk for gestational diabetes mellitus. Fasting serum samples collected during trimester 3 (gestational week 32 ± 0.6) and postpartum (10.5 ± 0.4 months) were compared in diagnosis-specific multivariate models (orthogonal partial least squares analysis). Clinical measurements (e.g., insulin, glucose, lipid levels) were compared and models of insulin sensitivity and resistance were calculated for the same time period. Results Women with gestational diabetes had significantly increased postpartum levels of the branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) leucine, isoleucine, and valine, and their circulating lipids did not return to normal levels after pregnancy. The increase in BCAAs occurred postpartum since the BCAAs did not differ during pregnancy, as compared to normoglycemic women. Conclusions Postpartum levels of specific BCAAs, notably valine, are related to gestational diabetes during pregnancy

Biologisk recipientkontroll vid Forsmarks kärnkraftverk

Denna rapport sammanfattar långsiktiga och pågående trender ikustvattenmiljön utanför Forsmarks kärnkraftverk från mitten av 1970-taletfram till och med år 2012. Resultaten baseras på de fältundersökningar somutförs inom kärnkraftverkets kontrollprogram för att följa effekter avkylvattenanvändning på fisk, fågel och bottenfauna.Vid Forsmarks kärnkraftverk pumpas stora mängder brackvatten genomkraftverket för att kyla kondensorerna. Efter användning pumpas detanvända kylvattnet ut i närrecipienten, som får en temperaturhöjning medcirka 7-9°C. Kylvattenhanteringen har en direkt miljöpåverkan genom attdet havsvatten som används innehåller levande organismer som dras med ini systemet, eller filtreras bort vid intaget och dör. Det uppvärmda kylvattensom når närrecipienten har därtill effekter på djurens fysiologi, födotillgångoch beteendemönster, vilket i sin tur kan påverka deras tillväxt ochreproduktion. Dessa förändringar är väl dokumenterade under de år somkontrollprogrammet har pågått, framförallt när det gäller fisk. I rapportenpresenteras trender i utvecklingen över tid hos fisk, bottenfauna och fågel.Data jämförs där det är möjligt med motsvarande trender i referensområdensamt i andra delar av Bottenhavet och Östersjön.En stor del av de förändringar som observerats i Forsmarks skärgårdunder senare år kan sannolikt sammankopplas med kylvattenutflödet, isynnerhet efter år 2004 när det galler som tidigare hindrade fiskar från attvandra in och ut ur Biotestsjön togs bort. Detta syns som en ökad invandringav lekfisk i Biotestsjön och en tillkomst av arter som inte funnits där pålänge. Samtidigt ses förändrade tillväxtmönster hos abborre i Biotestsjönsamt utanför, i Forsmarks skärgård. I viss mån ses även förändradeutbredningsmönster hos sjöfågel som skulle kunna kopplas till förändradfödotillgång. För bottenfauna kan man inte avgöra om det finns mönster, pågrund av avsaknad av data under senare år.Resultaten antyder att en större del av fiskbestånden i Forsmarks skärgårdän tidigare är beroende av att Biotestsjön är en fungerande miljö förreproduktion och tillväxt. Detta är positivt så länge förhållandena iBiotestsjön och övriga områden som påverkas av kylvattenutsläpp ärgynnsamma, men negativt för omgivande skärgård om rekryteringen i dessaområden inte skulle fungera, eller om fiskens hälsa skulle påverkas. Dessaaspekter blir särskilt aktuella i och med den planerade effekthöjningen vidForsmarks kärnkraftverk, som sannolikt skulle kunna accentuera deobserverade effekterna, samt den planerade byggnaden av ett slutförvar, om denna påverkar tillgången på alternativa rekryteringsmiljöer för fisk inärområdet.Dödligheten i silstationen är fortsatt hög, om än med stormellanårsvariation i antal och artsammansättning. Mätningar vid silstationenvisar dock på en ökad dödlighet av ål, som inte kan förklaras av generellauppgångar i beståndet. Ökningen är troligen en effekt av att mer ål äntidigare vistas i Forsmarks skärgård, vilket skulle kunna bero på enanlockning av ål till området för kylvattenutsläpp.En annan förändring som inträffat under senare år är att en nyintroducerad art, musslan Mytilopsis leucopheata, har observerats i områdetsedan 2011. Arten har orsakat problem i kylvattenvägarna i andrakärnkraftverk i Östersjön, och områden med förhöjd vattentemperatur hartidigare identifierats som potentiella plattformar för fortsatt etablering avarten i andra områden