A Bayesian way to solve the pdf selection problem: an application in geotechnical analysis

Single probability density functions (pdf) are often selected based on a best-fit approach or the minimum description length (MDL) theorem that finds its description by the theory of complexity by Kolmogorov. However, it often occurs that random data cannot be accurately described by any of the commonly used pdf's. In this paper a method is presented which solves the problem of selecting single pdf's by predicting the probability of contending pdf's true given the data. These probabilities are combined when drawing inferences. The new method is illustrated on the prediction of the ultimate limit state (bearing capacity) of a single The aim of this paper is demonstrating the application of the Bayesian statistical method in combining statistical properties based of multiple pdf's. Waarts et al The present paper is outlined as follows. First the application of Bayes' theorem will be discussed to solve the problem of single pdf selection, i.e. the probabilities of contending pdf's being true given the data. Then the individual probabilities of the contending pfd's will be combined to one multiple parameter pdf. Thereafter, the new method is illustrated by an example where three contending pdf's have been combined for the model factor of axial pile capacities, i.e. the ratio of measured to calculated values. Subsequently, Level II analyses are carried out using the multiple parameter pdf for the model uncertainty. These analyses yield results that are important for practical use, such as the assessment of the partial safety factors and the establishments of the cumulative distribution function for axial pile capacity. Finally, concluding remarks and directions for further research are given

Experimental Research on the Behaviour of Combined Web Crippling and Bending of Steel Deck Sections

At an interior support, sections of cold-formed steel are subjected to a concentrated load and a bending moment Existing design rules describing the section failure at an interior support are subject to improvement and are not based on the section\u27s physical failure behaviour. In the last decade, several analytical models have been developed that predict the section ultimate concentrated load and directly include the influence of the bending moment, so that an empirical interaction method is not needed. However, the authors believe that these models are correct only for a concentrated load and a small bending moment In practice large bending moments occur. Therefore, the aim of the current research project is to develop an analytical model for trapezoidal hat sections subjected to a concentrated load and a bending moment as occurring in practice. The development of this model will be based on both experimental and numerical research will be carried out. In this article, a part of the experimental research will be presented

Experimental Research on the Behaviour of Combined Web Crippling and Bending of Steel Deck Sections

At an interior support, sections of cold-formed steel are subjected to a concentrated load and a bending moment Existing design rules describing the section failure at an interior support are subject to improvement and are not based on the section\u27s physical failure behaviour. In the last decade, several analytical models have been developed that predict the section ultimate concentrated load and directly include the influence of the bending moment, so that an empirical interaction method is not needed. However, the authors believe that these models are correct only for a concentrated load and a small bending moment In practice large bending moments occur. Therefore, the aim of the current research project is to develop an analytical model for trapezoidal hat sections subjected to a concentrated load and a bending moment as occurring in practice. The development of this model will be based on both experimental and numerical research will be carried out. In this article, a part of the experimental research will be presented

Diagnostic image (50)

A 32-year-old woman had a progressive euthyroid goitre and dyspnoea. Pemberton's sign was found to be positive: elevation of both arms resulted in an inspiratory stridor and venous congestion. Symptoms and signs resolved after total thyroidectomy.</p