"The Conditional Limited Information Maximum Likelihood Approach to Dynamic Panel Structural Equations"

We propose the conditional limited information maximum likelihood (CLIML) approach for estimating dynamic panel structural equation models. When there are dynamic effects and endogenous variables with individual effects at the same time, the CLIML estimation method for the doubly-filtered data does give not only a consistent estimation, but also it attains the asymptotic efficiency when the number of orthogonal condition is large. Our formulation includes Alvarez and Arellano (2003), Blundell and Bond (2000) and other linear dynamic panel models as special cases.

"The Limited Information Maximum Likelihood Approach to Dynamic Panel Structural Equations"

We develop the panel limited information maximum likelihood (PLIML) approach for estimating dynamic panel structural equation models. When there are dynamic effects and endogenous variables with individual effects at the same time, the PLIML estimation method for the filtered data does give not only a consistent estimator, but also it has the asymptotic normality and often attains the asymptotic bound when the number of orthogonal conditions is large. Our formulation includes Alvarez and Arellano (2003), Blundell and Bond (2000) and other linear dynamic panel models as special cases. We also compare the PLIML and Panel GMM methods and propose an improvement of PLIML for heteroscedastic disturbances among many indivisuals.

"Some Properties of the LIML Estimator in a Dynamic Panel Structural Equation"

We investigate the finite sample and asymptotic properties of several estimation methods (Within-Group, GMM and LIML) for a panel autoregressive structural equation model with random effects when both T and N are large. When we use the forward-filtering to a structural model as Alvarez and Arellano (2003), both the WG and GMM estimators are significantly biased when both T and N go to infinity while T/N is different from zero. The LIML (limited information maximum likelihood) estimator has consistency and the asymptotic normality when T/N converges to a constant as both T and N go to infinity. Its asymptotic distribution has some bias and covariance which depend on the limiting behavior of T/N.

"The Role of Trade Credit for Small Firms: An Implication from Japan's Banking Crisis"

Trade credit is one of the most important sources of short-term external finance for small firms. Previous literature has focused mainly on the substitution of bank loans for trade credit during monetary tightening among many firms, but in this paper we investigate the role of trade credit during the banking crisis in Japan. The basic motivation is to explore whether the substitution hypothesis still holds even under serious financial turbulence. Our main results suggest that the substitution hypothesis held in Japan when the banking sector was healthy, but broke down during the banking crisis. More precisely, both bank loans and trade credit contracted simultaneously during the crisis. Deteriorated bank health might have been primarily responsible for the widespread declines of credit to small and medium size firms in Japan during the banking crisis.

The Role of Trade Credit for Small Firms: An Implication from Japan's Banking Crisis

Trade credit is one of the most important sources of short-term external finance for small firms. Previous literature has focused mainly on the substitution of bank loans for trade credit during monetary tightening among many firms, but in this paper we investigate the role of trade credit during the banking crisis in Japan. The basic motivation is to explore whether the substitution hypothesis still holds even under serious financial turbulence. Our main results suggest that the substitution hypothesis held in Japan when the banking sector was healthy, but broke down during the banking crisis. More precisely, both bank loans and trade credit contracted simultaneously during the crisis. Deteriorated bank health might have been primarily responsible for the widespread declines of credit to small and medium size firms in Japan during the banking crisis.

The Role of Trade Credit for Small Firms : An Implication from Japan’s Banking Crisis

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of trade credit during the banking crisis in Japan. Trade credit is one of the most important sources of short-term external finance for small firms. Previous literature has focused mainly on the substitution of bank loans for trade credit during monetary tightening among many firms, but in this paper we investigate the role of trade credit during the banking crisis. The basic motivation is to explore whether the substitution hypothesis still holds even under serious financial turbulence. Our main results suggest that the substitution hypothesis held in Japan when the banking sector was healthy, but broke down during the banking crisis. More precisely, both bank loans and trade credit contracted simultaneously during the crisis. Deteriorated bank health might have been primarily responsible for the widespread declines of credit to small and medium size firms in Japan during the banking crisis.Trade credit, Bank-firm relationship, Unlisted firms

The Role of Trade Credit for Small Firms: An Implication from Japan's Banking Crisis

Trade credit is one of the most important sources of short-term external finance for small firms. Previous literature has focused mainly on the substitution of bank loans for trade credit during monetary tightening among many firms, but in this paper we investigate the role of trade credit during the banking crisis in Japan. The basic motivation is to explore whether the substitution hypothesis still holds even under serious financial turbulence. Our main results suggest that the substitution hypothesis held in Japan when the banking sector was healthy, but broke down during the banking crisis. More precisely, both bank loans and trade credit contracted simultaneously during the crisis. Deteriorated bank health might have been primarily responsible for the widespread declines of credit to small and medium size firms in Japan during the banking crisis.Trade credit, Bank-firm relationship, Unlisted firms

Impaired Bank Health and Default Risk ( Forthcoming in "Pacific-Basin Finance Journal". )

Empirical studies in corporate finance have long been focused on the role of banks in reducing the costs of financial distress. The environment and events in Japan provide a "natural experiment" that allows such empirical studies. The number of bankruptcies steadily increased throughout the 1990s, and peaked in 2000. During this period, Japan?s banking sector, in contrast, faced considerable problems regarding the disposal of their bad loans. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how various measures of bank health and how defaults of major trading partners affected the probability of bankruptcy among medium-size firms in Japan. Using probit models, we examine the causes of bankruptcy for unlisted Japanese companies in the late 1990s and early 2000s. We find that several measures of bank-specific financial health have had significant impacts on a borrower's probability of bankruptcy, even when observable characteristics relating to these borrower's financial variables are controlled. In particular, a close bank-firm relationship - which usually reduces the probability of bankruptcy - exacerbates the impacts of a financial crisis, which substantially damages other bank health measures as well.

２項モデルの予測による金融リスク最小化 ： 理論と応用

要旨あり金融リスクの統計解析原著論