Emulation of multivariate simulators using thin-plate splines with application to atmospheric dispersion

It is often desirable to build a statistical emulator of a complex computer simulator in order to perform analysis which would otherwise be computationally infeasible. We propose methodology to model multivariate output from a computer simulator taking into account output structure in the responses. The utility of this approach is demonstrated by applying it to a chemical and biological hazard prediction model. Predicting the hazard area which results from an accidental or deliberate chemical or biological release is imperative in civil and military planning and also in emergency response. The hazard area resulting from such a release is highly structured in space and we therefore propose the use of a thin-plate spline to capture the spatial structure and fit a Gaussian process emulator to the coefficients of the resultant basis functions. We compare and contrast four different techniques for emulating multivariate output: dimension-reduction using (i) a fully Bayesian approach with a principal component basis, (ii) a fully Bayesian approach with a thin-plate spline basis, assuming that the basis coefficients are independent, and (iii) a “plug-in” Bayesian approach with a thin-plate spline basis and a separable covariance structure; and (iv) a functional data modeling approach using a tensor-product (separable) Gaussian process. We develop methodology for the two thin-plate spline emulators and demonstrate that these emulators significantly outperform the principal component emulator. Further, the separable thin-plate spline emulator, which accounts for the dependence between basis coefficients, provides substantially more realistic quantification of uncertainty, and is also computationally more tractable, allowing fast emulation. For high resolution output data, it also offers substantial predictive and computational ad- vantages over the tensor-product Gaussian process emulator

Arkansas Cotton Variety Test 2013

The primary goal of the Arkansas Cotton Variety Test is to provide unbiased data regarding the agronomic performance of cotton varieties and advanced breeding lines in the major cotton-growing areas of Arkansas. This information helps seed companies establish marketing strategies and assists producers in choosing varieties to plant. These annual evaluations will then facilitate the inclusion of new, improved genetic material in Arkansas cotton production

Arkansas Cotton Variety Test 2015

The primary goal of the Arkansas Cotton Variety Test is to provide unbiased data regarding the agronomic performance of cotton varieties and advanced breeding lines in the major cotton-growing areas of Arkansas. This information helps seed companies establish marketing strategies and assists producers in choosing varieties to plant. These annual evaluations will then facilitate the inclusion of new, improved genetic material in Arkansas cotton production

A Selected Ion Flow Tube Study of the Reactions of Several Cations with the Group 6B Hexafluorides SF6, SeF6, and TeF6

The first investigation of the ion chemistry of SeF$_6$ and TeF$_6$ is presented. Using a selected ion flow tube, the thermal rate coefficients and ion product distributions have been determined at 300 K for the reactions of fourteen atomic and molecular cations, namely H$_3$O$^+$, CF$_3^+$, CF$^+$, CF$_2^+$, H$_2$O$^+$, N$_2$O$^+$, O$^+$, CO$_2^+$, CO$^+$, N$^+$, N$_2^+$, Ar$^+$, F$^+$ and Ne$^+$ (in order of increasing recombination energy), with SeF$_6$ and TeF$_6$. The results are compared with those from the reactions of these ions with SF$_6$, for which the reactions with CF$^+$, CF$_2^+$, N$_2$O$^+$ and F$^+$ are reported for the first time. Several distinct processes are observed amongst the large number of reactions studied, including dissociative charge transfer, and F$^-$, F, F$_2^-$ and F$_2$ abstraction from the neutral reactant molecule to the reagent ion. The dissociative charge transfer channels are discussed in relation to vacuum ultraviolet photoelectron and threshold photoelectron-photoion coincidence spectra of XF$_6$ (X = S, Se, and Te). For reagent ions whose recombination energies lie between the first dissociative ionisation limit, XF$_6$ $\rightarrow$ XF$_5^+$ + F + e$^-$, and the onset of ionisation of the XF$_6$ molecule, the results suggest that if dissociative charge transfer occurs, it proceeds via an intimate encounter. For those reagent ions whose recombination energies are greater than the onset of ionisation, long-range electron transfer may occur depending on whether certain physical factors apply, for example non-zero Franck-Condon overlap. From the reaction kinetics, limits for the heats of formation of SeF$_4$, SeF$_5$, TeF$_4$ and TeF$_5$ at 298 K have been obtained; $\Delta_f$H$^o$(SeF$_4$) < -369 kJ mol$^{-1}$, $\Delta_f$H$^o$(SeF$_5$) < -621 kJ mol$^{-1}$, $\Delta_f$H$^o$(TeF$_4$) > -570 kJ mol$^{-1}$, and $\Delta_f$H$^o$(TeF$_5$) < -822 kJ mol$^{-1}$

The effects of visual deprivation on adaptation to a rotating environment

Visual deprivation effects on adaptation to rotating environment - Motion sickness studie

Arkansas Cotton Variety Test 2014

The primary goal of the Arkansas Cotton Variety Test is to provide unbiased data regarding the agronomic performance of cotton varieties and advanced breeding lines in the major cotton-growing areas of Arkansas. This information helps seed companies establish marketing strategies and assists producers in choosing varieties to plant

A comparison of effectiveness of some antimotion sickness drugs using recommended and larger than recommended doses as tested in the slow rotation room

Comparison of effectiveness of antimotion sickness drugs tested in human centrifug

Development of the health and economic consequences of smoking interactive model

Objective-To describe the health and economic consequences of smoking model, a user friendly, web based tool, designed to estimate the health and economic outcomes associated with smoking and the benefits of smoking cessation. Results-An overview of the development of the model equations and user interface is given, and data from the UK are presented as an example of the model outputs. These results show that a typical smoking cessation strategy costs approximately pound 1200 per life year saved and pound 22 000 per death averted. Conclusions-The model successfully captures the complexity required to model smoking behaviour and associated mortality, morbidity, and health care costs. Furthermore, the interface provides the results in a simple and flexible way so as to be useful to a variety of audiences and to simulate a variety of smoking cessation methods

Dephasing dynamics of Rydberg atom spin waves

A theory of Rydberg atom interactions is used to derive analytical forms for the spin wave pair correlation function in laser-excited cold-atom vapors. This function controls the quantum statistics of light emission from dense, inhomogeneous clouds of cold atoms of various spatial dimensionalities. The results yield distinctive scaling behaviors on the microsecond timescale, including generalized exponential decay. A detailed comparison is presented with a recent experiment on a cigar-shaped atomic ensemble [Y. Dudin and A. Kuzmich, Science 336, 887 (2012)], in which Rb atoms are excited to a set of Rydberg levels.Comment: 4 pages, Supplemental Material in Appendix, 4 figure

Arkansas Cotton Variety Test 2012

The primary goal of the Arkansas Cotton Variety Test is to provide unbiased data regarding the agronomic performance of cotton varieties and advanced breeding lines in the major cotton-growing areas of Arkansas. This information helps seed companies establish marketing strategies and assists producers in choosing varieties to plant