Russian Financial Transition: The Development of Institutions and Markets for Growth

A well-developed financial intermediation industry increases domestic savings, efficiently allocates investment resources to the most productive uses in the economy and increases the rate of economic growth. In the Soviet economy the banking system served as a means of collecting household savings and a means of distributing centrally determined capital grants to enterprises. Banks then audited enterprise financial activities to ensure compliance to the financial plan. After a decade the transition from the Soviet banking system to a market oriented banking system is incomplete and fraught with uncertainty. While the number of financial institutions has increased dramatically, the state sector still dominates financial sector activity, the legal and regulatory framework is incomplete, information necessary for risk management is of poor quality and policy makers and regulators have been slow to act to improve intermediation services. While significant progress has been made, the commonly recognized characteristics of a sound financial system are not yet met.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39839/3/wp455.pd

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?

A model of the long run equilibrium real exchange rate based upon macroeconomic fundamentals is employed to calculate real exchange rate misalignments for Poland and Russia during the 1990s using the Beveridge and Nelson (1981) decomposition of macrofundamentals into transitory and permanent components. Short run movements of the real exchange rate are estimated with ARIMA and GARCH error correction specifications. The different nominal exchange rate regimes of the two countries generate different levels of misalignment and different responses to exogenous shocks. The average misalignment in Russia is substantially greater than that in Poland, indicating incipient pressures to devalue the ruble immediately preceding the August 1998 crisis. The half life of an exogenous shock is found to be much shorter for Poland than for Russia in the pre-crisis period. Dynamic forecasts indicate that the movements of the real exchange rate in the post-crisis period are significantly different from those in the pre-crisis period. Thus, the currency crisis in Russia could not be anticipated with the movements of the real exchange rate estimated with the macroeconomic fundamentals.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40183/3/wp797.pd

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: Prelude to Crisis?

A model of the long run equilibrium real exchange rate based upon macroeconomic fundamentals is employed to calculate real exchange rate misalignments for Poland and Russia during the 1990s using the Beveridge and Nelson (1981) decomposition of macrofundamentals into transitory and permanent components. Short run movements of the real exchange rate are estimated with ARIMA and GARCH error correction specifications. The different nominal exchange rate regimes of the two countries generate different levels of misalignment and different responses to exogenous shocks. The average misalignment in Russia is substantially greater than that in Poland, indicating incipient pressures to devalue the ruble immediately preceding the August 1998 crisis. The half life of an exogenous shock is found to be much shorter for Poland than for Russia in the pre-crisis period. Dynamic forecasts indicate that the movements of the real exchange rate in the post-crisis period are significantly different from those in the pre-crisis period. Thus, the currency crisis in Russia could not be anticipated with the movements of the real exchange rate estimated with the macroeconomic fundamentals.Russia, Poland, equilibrium real exchange rates, misalignment, cointegration, exogenous shocks, macroeconomic crises

Yuan Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation, 1997-2006. How Much, How Often? Not Much, Not Often

Yuan real effective exchange rate misalignment is esitimated in a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model for the period 1997 to third quarter 2007. Using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition a vector error correction model (VECM) of the exchange rate as a function of macroeconomic fundamentals, including government expenditures, economic openness, the balance of trade surplus, and net foreign assets, is estimated. We find that the Chinese Yuan has been fluctuating moderately around its long run equilibrium value with undervaluation up to 4% and overvaluation up to 6% at various points in time since 1997. This result is consistent with findings of many of the most recent studies employing alternative econometric methodologies to determine the equilibrium exchange rate. While the Yuan real effective exchange rate has deviated from equilibrium, and it is sticky, taking over five years to correct 50% of the short run misalignment, it does not appear to have been consistently undervalued as has been widely argued.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/64348/1/wp934.pd

Yuan Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation, 1997-2006. How Much, How Often? Not Much, Not Often

Yuan real effective exchange rate misalignment is esitimated in a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model for the period 1997 to third quarter 2007. Using the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition a vector error correction model (VECM) of the exchange rate as a function of macroeconomic fundamentals, including government expenditures, economic openness, the balance of trade surplus, and net foreign assets, is estimated. We find that the Chinese Yuan has been fluctuating moderately around its long run equilibrium value with undervaluation up to 4% and overvaluation up to 6% at various points in time since 1997. This result is consistent with findings of many of the most recent studies employing alternative econometric methodologies to determine the equilibrium exchange rate. While the Yuan real effective exchange rate has deviated from equilibrium, and it is sticky, taking over five years to correct 50% of the short run misalignment, it does not appear to have been consistently undervalued as has been widely argued.Chinese Yuan, Exchange Rate, Misalignment, BEER, Behavioral, Cointegration, ARIMA, VECM, FGLS.

Model Production System for Laminated Wood Products

The purpose of this research was to investigate and experiment with the use of a designed model production system in comparison to a traditional system. It was the intent of this study to develop an efficient model production system for producing laminated wood products. This research included: (l) review of the literature pertinent to wood lamination, (2) survey of companies and individuals involved with wood lamination, (3) design and testing of a model lamination system, and (4) comparison of the designed system to the traditional method of laminating a wood product The variables and procedures relating to wood lamination were identified through the review of literature and returned surveys. The variables and procedures deemed important were used to design the schematic, mathematical, and physical models of a lamination system. The designed model system was compared to the traditional method of producing a laminated wood product. This was done through a comparison of production times, process charts, process layout diagrams, and cost analysis The primary conclusions obtained from this study were: (1) the designed model layout resulted in less material movement than the traditional layout, (2) the designed model process required fewer production activities than the traditional process, (3) the designed model process required less production time than the traditional method, (4) the designed model proved to be more economical in producing the same quantity of products than the traditional method, and (5) the quality of the laminated wood product proved higher using the designed model system in comparison to the traditional method It is recommended that: (1) a designed layout be used in lamination production runs, (2) a designed process should be incorporated in lamination production runs, (3) break-even analysis should be used to compare the economics of two production methods, and (4) models should be used to compare two or more competing system

Sonic limitations and startup problems of heat pipes

Introduction of small amounts of inert, noncombustible gas aids startup in certain types of heat pipes. When the heat pipe is closely coupled to the heat sink, the startup system must be designed to bring the heat sink on-line slowly

Evaluation of Zar-Pro lifting strip fidelity in comparison to other blood fingerprint enhancement methods

Fingerprints in blood indicate a threshold of violence has been surpassed in crime scenarios - making the crime resolution more urgent. There exist multiple processes that enhance a blood fingerprint in its original position, or in-situ, with reliability so that an image can be obtained. However, blood fingerprint evidence that cannot directly be transported to a laboratory for further analysis, due to the size or mobility of the substrate, calls for portability. In 2010 Zar-Pro Fluorescent Blood Lifting Strips were patented by Jessica Zarate as a "fluorogenic method for lifting, enhancing, and preserving blood impression evidence". The lifted prints are also inherently fluorescent to further increase enhancement and contrast of the print. There are currently no studies comparing Zar-Pro results with the results of other laboratory enhancement methods. This experiment compared Zar-Pro to other non-portable and frequently used alternatives - blood peak absorption and Hungarian Red enhancement to determine if Zar-Pro gives better blood fingerprint enhancement results than other non-portable alternatives - ALS visualization and Hungarian Red enhancement. In this study, Zar-Pro methods produced more reliable and reproducible results over the Hungarian Red and blood peak absorption methods on white and black ceramic tile. From this study, one can also conclude that ALS peak absorption is better suited for the location of blood prints on a light-colored item of evidence, rather than an enhancement method of blood prints