Some Aspects of Measurement Error in Linear Regression of Astronomical Data

I describe a Bayesian method to account for measurement errors in linear regression of astronomical data. The method allows for heteroscedastic and possibly correlated measurement errors, and intrinsic scatter in the regression relationship. The method is based on deriving a likelihood function for the measured data, and I focus on the case when the intrinsic distribution of the independent variables can be approximated using a mixture of Gaussians. I generalize the method to incorporate multiple independent variables, non-detections, and selection effects (e.g., Malmquist bias). A Gibbs sampler is described for simulating random draws from the probability distribution of the parameters, given the observed data. I use simulation to compare the method with other common estimators. The simulations illustrate that the Gaussian mixture model outperforms other common estimators and can effectively give constraints on the regression parameters, even when the measurement errors dominate the observed scatter, source detection fraction is low, or the intrinsic distribution of the independent variables is not a mixture of Gaussians. I conclude by using this method to fit the X-ray spectral slope as a function of Eddington ratio using a sample of 39 z < 0.8 radio-quiet quasars. I confirm the correlation seen by other authors between the radio-quiet quasar X-ray spectral slope and the Eddington ratio, where the X-ray spectral slope softens as the Eddington ratio increases.Comment: 39 pages, 11 figures, 1 table, accepted by ApJ. IDL routines (linmix_err.pro) for performing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo are available at the IDL astronomy user's library, http://idlastro.gsfc.nasa.gov/homepage.htm

Physiotherapy students\u27 perceptions and experiences of clinical prediction rules

Objectives: Clinical reasoning can be difficult to teach to pre-professional physiotherapy students due to their lack of clinical experience. It may be that tools such as clinical prediction rules (CPRs) could aid the process, but there has been little investigation into their use in physiotherapy clinical education. This study aimed to determine the perceptions and experiences of physiotherapy students regarding CPRs, and whether they are learning about CPRs on clinical placement. Design: Cross-sectional survey using a paper-based questionnaire. Participants: Final year pre-professional physiotherapy students (n=371, response rate 77%) from five universities across five states of Australia. Results: Sixty percent of respondents had not heard of CPRs, and a further 19% had not clinically used CPRs. Only 21% reported using CPRs, and of these nearly three-quarters were rarely, if ever, learning about CPRs in the clinical setting. However most of those who used CPRs (78%) believed CPRs assisted in the development of clinical reasoning skills and none (0%) was opposed to the teaching of CPRs to students. The CPRs most commonly recognised and used by students were those for determining the need for an X-ray following injuries to the ankle and foot (67%), and for identifying deep venous thrombosis (63%). Conclusions: The large majority of students in this sample knew little, if anything, about CPRs and few had learned about, experienced or practiced them on clinical placement. However, students who were aware of CPRs found them helpful for their clinical reasoning and were in favour of learning more about them

The diagnostic performance of routinely acquired and reported computed tomography imaging in patients presenting with suspected pleural malignancy

Objectives: Contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) provides essential cross-sectional imaging data in patients with suspected pleural malignancy (PM). The performance of CT in routine practice may be lower than in previously reported research. We assessed this relative to ‘real-life’ factors including use of early arterial-phase contrast enhancement (by CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA)) and non-specialist radiology reporting. Materials and methods: Routinely acquired and reported CT scans in patients recruited to the DIAPHRAGM study (a prospective, multi-centre observational study of mesothelioma biomarkers) between January 2014 and April 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. CT reports were classified as malignant if they included specific terms e.g. “suspicious of malignancy”, “stage M1a” and benign if others were used e.g. “indeterminate”, “no cause identified”. All patients followed a standard diagnostic algorithm. The diagnostic performance of CT (overall and based on the above factors) was assessed using 2 × 2 Contingency Tables. Results: 30/345 (9%) eligible patients were excluded (non-contrast (n = 13) or non-contiguous CT (n = 4), incomplete follow-up (n = 13)). 195/315 (62%) patients studied had PM; 90% were cyto-histologically confirmed. 172/315 (55%) presented as an acute admission, of whom 31/172 (18%) had CTPA. Overall, CT sensitivity was 58% (95% CI 51–65%); specificity was 80% (95% CI 72–87%). Sensitivity of CTPA (performed in 31/315 (10%)) was lower (27% (95% CI 9–53%)) than venous-phase CT (61% (95% CI 53–68%) p = 0.0056). Sensitivity of specialist thoracic radiologist reporting was higher (68% (95% CI 55–79%)) than non-specialist reporting (53% (95% CI 44–62%) p = 0.0488). Specificity was not significantly different. Conclusion: The diagnostic performance of CT in routine clinical practice is insufficient to exclude or confirm PM. A benign CT report should not dissuade pleural sampling where the presence of primary or secondary pleural malignancy would alter management. Sensitivity is lower with non-thoracic radiology reporting and particularly low using CTPA

Prompt Electromagnetic Transients from Binary Black Hole Mergers

Binary black hole (BBH) mergers provide a prime source for current and future interferometric GW observatories. Massive BBH mergers may often take place in plasma-rich environments, leading to the exciting possibility of a concurrent electromagnetic (EM) signal observable by traditional astronomical facilities. However, many critical questions about the generation of such counterparts remain unanswered. We explore mechanisms that may drive EM counterparts with magnetohydrodynamic simulations treating a range of scenarios involving equal-mass black-hole binaries immersed in an initially homogeneous fluid with uniform, orbitally aligned magnetic fields. We find that the time development of Poynting luminosity, which may drive jet-like emissions, is relatively insensitive to aspects of the initial configuration. In particular, over a significant range of initial values, the central magnetic field strength is effectively regulated by the gas flow to yield a Poynting luminosity of $10^{45}-10^{46} \rho_{-13} M_8^2 \, {\rm erg}\,{\rm s}^{-1}$, with BBH mass scaled to $M_8 \equiv M/(10^8 M_{\odot})$ and ambient density $\rho_{-13} \equiv \rho/(10^{-13} \, {\rm g} \, {\rm cm}^{-3})$. We also calculate the direct plasma synchrotron emissions processed through geodesic ray-tracing. Despite lensing effects and dynamics, we find the observed synchrotron flux varies little leading up to merger.Comment: 22 pages, 21 figures; additional reference + clarifying text added to match published versio

Evolutionary cell biology: Functional insight from “Endless forms most beautiful”

In animal and fungal model organisms, the complexities of cell biology have been analyzed in exquisite detail and much is known about how these organisms function at the cellular level. However, the model organisms cell biologists generally use include only a tiny fraction of the true diversity of eukaryotic cellular forms. The divergent cellular processes observed in these more distant lineages are still largely unknown in the general scientific community. Despite the relative obscurity of these organisms, comparative studies of them across eukaryotic diversity have had profound implications for our understanding of fundamental cell biology in all species and have revealed the evolution and origins of previously observed cellular processes. In this Perspective, we will discuss the complexity of cell biology found across the eukaryotic tree, and three specific examples of where studies of divergent cell biology have altered our understanding of key functional aspects of mitochondria, plastids, and membrane trafficking

Comparison of bungee-aided and free-bouncing accelerations on trampoline

Trampolines remain the single best apparatus for the training of aerial acrobatics skills. Trampoline use has led to catastrophic injuries from poor landings. Passive injury prevention countermeasures such as specialized matting have been largely ineffective. Active injury countermeasures such as hand spotting, “throw-in” mats, and overhead spotting rigs provide the most effective methods. The recent addition of several bungee cords between the ropes and the gymnast’s spotting harness has resulted in altered teaching and coaching of trampoline-related acrobatics. Bungee cords have eliminated the need for a coach/spotter to manage the ropes during skill learning. The purpose of this study was to assess the influence of the addition of bungee cords with a traditional rope-based overhead spotting rig. There is a paucity of any research involving trampoline injury countermeasures. Ten experienced trampoline acrobatic athletes (5 males, 5 females) from the U.S. Ski and Snowboard Association Aerials National Team performed 10 bounces as high as they could control. A triaxial accelerometer (200 Hz) characterized 10 bungee cord aided bounces and 10 freebounces on a trampoline from each athlete. Bed contact times, peak accelerations, and average accelerations were obtained. The results supported our hypotheses that the bungeeaided bounces achieved only 40% (average) to 70% (peak) of the free-bouncing accelerations (all ρ 0.092). The bed contact time was approximately 65% longer during the bungee-aided bounces (ρ < 0.001). Bungee cords may reduce the harshness of landings on trampoline