Dynamic Bayesian Networks as a Probabilistic Metamodel for Combat Simulations

Simulation modeling is used in many situations. Simulation meta-modeling is used to estimate a simulation model result by representing the space of simulation model responses. Metamodeling methods are particularly useful when the simulation model is not particularly suited to real-time or mean real-time use. Most metamodeling methods provide expected value responses while some situations need probabilistic responses. This research establishes the viability of Dynamic Bayesian Networks for simulation metamodeling, those situations needing probabilistic responses. A bootstrapping method is introduced to reduce simulation data requirement for a DBN, and experimental design is shown to benefit a DBN used to represent a multi-dimensional response space. An improved interpolation method is developed and shown beneficial to DBN metamodeling applications. These contributions are employed in a military modeling case study to fully demonstrate the viability of DBN metamodeling for Defense analysis application

High levels of gene flow and genetic diversity in Irish populations of Salix caprea L. inferred from chloroplast and nuclear SSR markers

peer-reviewedBackground Salix caprea is a cold-tolerant pioneer species that is ecologically important in Europe and western and central Asia. However, little data is available on its population genetic structure and molecular ecology. We describe the levels of geographic population genetic structure in natural Irish populations of S. caprea and determine the extent of gene flow and sexual reproduction using both chloroplast and nuclear simple sequence repeats (SSRs). Results A total of 183 individuals from 21 semi-natural woodlands were collected and genotyped. Gene diversity across populations was high for the chloroplast SSRs (H T  = 0.21-0.58) and 79 different haplotypes were discovered, among them 48% were unique to a single individual. Genetic differentiation of populations was found to be between moderate and high (mean G ST  = 0.38). For the nuclear SSRs, G ST was low at 0.07 and observed heterozygosity across populations was high (H O  = 0.32-0.51); only 9.8% of the genotypes discovered were present in two or more individuals. For both types of markers, AMOVA showed that most of the variation was within populations. Minor geographic pattern was confirmed by a Bayesian clustering analysis. Gene flow via pollen was found to be approximately 7 times more important than via seeds. Conclusions The data are consistent with outbreeding and indicate that there are no significant barriers for gene flow within Ireland over large geographic distances. Both pollen-mediated and seed-mediated gene flow were found to be high, with some of the populations being more than 200 km apart from each other. These findings could simply be due to human intervention through seed trade or accidental transportation of both seeds and pollen. These results are of value to breeders wishing to exploit natural genetic variation and foresters having to choose planting material.Teagasc Walsh Fellowship Programm

Theory of edge-state optical absorption in two-dimensional transition metal dichalcogenide flakes

We develop an analytical model to describe sub-band-gap optical absorption in two-dimensional semiconducting transition metal dichalcogenide (s-TMD) nanoflakes. The material system represents an array of few-layer molybdenum disulfide crystals, randomly orientated in a polymer matrix. We propose that optical absorption involves direct transitions between electronic edge states and bulk bands, depends strongly on the carrier population, and is saturable with sufficient fluence. For excitation energies above half the band gap, the excess energy is absorbed by the edge-state electrons, elevating their effective temperature. Our analytical expressions for the linear and nonlinear absorption could prove useful tools in the design of practical photonic devices based on s-TMDs.Royal Academy of Engineering, Collaborative Research Center 76

Role of gradients in vocal fold elastic modulus on phonation

New studies show that the elastic properties of the vocal folds (VFs) vary locally. In particular strong gradients exist in the distribution of elastic modulus along the length of the VF ligament, which is an important load-bearing constituent of the VF tissue. There is further evidence that changes in VF health are associated with alterations in modulus gradients. The role of VF modulus gradation on VF vibration and phonation remains unexplored. In this study the magnitude of the gradient in VF elastic modulus is varied, and sophisticated computational simulations are performed of the self-oscillation of three-dimensional VFs with realistic modeling of airflow physical properties. Results highlight that phonation frequency, characteristic modes of deformation and phase differences, glottal airflow rate, spectral-width of vocal output, and glottal jet dynamics are dependent on the magnitude of VF elastic modulus gradation. The results advance the understanding of how VF functional gradation can lead to perceptible changes in speech quality

Surfactant-aided exfoliation of molydenum disulphide for ultrafast pulse generation through edge-state saturable absorption

We use liquid phase exfoliation to produce dispersions of molybdenum disulphide (MoS2) nanoflakes in aqueous surfactant solutions. The chemical structures of the bile salt surfactants play a crucial role in the exfoliation and stabilization of MoS2. The resultant MoS2 dispersions are heavily enriched in single and few (<6) layer flakes with large edge to surface area ratio. We use the dispersions to fabricate free-standing polymer composite wide-band saturable absorbers to develop mode-locked and Q- switched fibre lasers, tunable from 1535-1565 and 1030-1070 nm, respectively. We attribute this sub-bandgap optical absorption and its nonlinear saturation behaviour to edge-mediated states introduced within the material band-gap of the exfoliated MoS2 nanoflakes.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure