貿易と環境: 経済構造、国際サプライチェーン、環境影響に関する研究

Tohoku University明日香壽川課

Impact of Trade Openness and Sector Trade on Embodied Greenhouse Gases Emissions and Air Pollutants

The production of goods and services generates greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollution both directly and through the activities of the supply chains on which they depend. The analysis of the latter—called embodied emissions—in the cause of internationally traded goods and services is the subject of this paper. We find that trade openness increases embodied emissions in international trade (EET). We also examine the impact of sector trade on EET. By applying a fixed-effect model using large balanced panel data from 187 countries between 1990 and 2011, we determine that each unit of increase in trade openness results in a 10% to 23% increase in GHG embodied emissions (EE). The sector trade effect is also significant for the EE of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), particulates (PM10 ) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Our findings also clearly indicate that the impact of the GDP on the EE of exports is positive, increasing emissions, but that it is negative on the EE of imports. We suggest that countries monitor trade sector emissions and trade openness to mitigate global embodied GHG emissions and air pollutants

Impact of Trade Openness and Sector Trade on Embodied Greenhouse Gases Emissions and Air Pollutants

The production of goods and services generates greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollution both directly and through the activities of the supply chains on which they depend. The analysis of the latter—called embodied emissions—in the cause of internationally traded goods and services is the subject of this paper. We find that trade openness increases embodied emissions in international trade (EET). We also examine the impact of sector trade on EET. By applying a fixed-effect model using large balanced panel data from 187 countries between 1990 and 2011, we determine that each unit of increase in trade openness results in a 10% to 23% increase in GHG embodied emissions (EE). The sector trade effect is also significant for the EE of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), particulates (PM10 ) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Our findings also clearly indicate that the impact of the GDP on the EE of exports is positive, increasing emissions, but that it is negative on the EE of imports. We suggest that countries monitor trade sector emissions and trade openness to mitigate global embodied GHG emissions and air pollutants

From Satellite to Supply Chain: New Approaches Connect Earth Observation to Economic Decisions. Commentary

Global supply chains shift environmental and social impacts of consumption to remote locations. This opacity challenges many sustainability goals. To help businesses and governments realize more sustainable supply chains, new approaches are using spatial data and machine-learning techniques to connect Earth observation data to conventional economic tools

Consumption in the G20 nations causes particulate air pollution resulting in two million premature deaths annually

G20の消費がPM2.5の排出を通じて年200万人の早期死亡者を生むことを推計. 京都大学プレスリリース. 2021-11-05.Worldwide exposure to ambient PM₂.₅ causes over 4 million premature deaths annually. As most of these deaths are in developing countries, without internationally coordinated efforts this polarized situation will continue. As yet, however, no studies have quantified nation-to-nation consumer responsibility for global mortality due to both primary and secondary PM2.5 particles. Here we quantify the global footprint of PM₂.₅-driven premature deaths for the 19 G20 nations in a position to lead such efforts. G20 consumption in 2010 was responsible for 1.983 [95% Confidence Interval: 1.685–2.285] million premature deaths, at an average age of 67, including 78.6 [71.5–84.8] thousand infant deaths, implying that the G20 lifetime consumption of about 28 [24–33] people claims one life. Our results indicate that G20 nations should take responsibility for their footprint rather than focusing solely on transboundary air pollution, as this would expand opportunities for reducing PM2.5-driven premature mortality. Given the infant mortality footprint identified, it would moreover contribute to ensuring infant lives are not unfairly left behind in countries like South Africa, which have a weak relationship with G20 nations

Spatial variation in household consumption-based carbon emission inventories for 1200 Japanese cities

Given that national pledges are likely insufficient to meet Paris greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets (Fawcett et al 2015 Science 350), increasingly actors at the city and state level are looking for options on how local government can contribute to reducing GHG emissions. For a typical city only one third to half of their carbon footprint (CF) is emitted within the jurisdiction,while the majority is embodied in goods and services flowing into the city. To support well-informed mitigation efforts, administrators need robust inventories of both direct emissions as well as the supply chain emissions. Here we construct household CF inventories for 1172 Japanese cities using detailed consumer expenditure data and a Japanese domestic multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. We identify the consumption activities which city policymakers can target to reduce CF. We observe a strong concentration of household CF in a few cities in Japan: 40% of the total Japanese CF is driven by 143 cities. Understanding a city\u27s consumption-based CF of households in addition to its direct emissions exposes additional policy options for each citizen to contribute to achieving national goals

Global socio-economic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic

On 3 April 2020, the Director-General of the WHO stated: “[COVID-19] is much more than a health crisis. We are all aware of the profound social and economic consequences of the pandemic (WHO, 2020)”. Such consequences are the result of counter-measures such as lockdowns, and world-wide reductions in production and consumption, amplified by cascading impacts through international supply chains. Using a global multi-regional macro-economic model, we capture direct and indirect spill-over effects in terms of social and economic losses, as well as environmental effects of the pandemic. Based on information as of May 2020, we show that global consumption losses amount to 3.8$tr, triggering significant job (147 million full-time equivalent) and income (2.1$tr) losses. Global atmospheric emissions are reduced by 2.5Gt of greenhouse gases, 0.6Mt of PM2.5, and 5.1Mt of SO2 and NOx. While Asia, Europe and the USA have been the most directly impacted regions, and transport and tourism the immediately hit sectors, the indirect effects transmitted along international supply chains are being felt across the entire world economy. These ripple effects highlight the intrinsic link between socio-economic and environmental dimensions, and emphasise the challenge of addressing unsustainable global patterns. How humanity reacts to this crisis will define the post-pandemic world

Tracing global supply chains to air pollution hotspots

While high-income countries have made significant strides since the 1970s in improving air quality, air pollution continues to rise in many developing countries and the world as a whole. A significant share of the pollution burden in developing countries can be attributed to production for export to consumers in high-income nations. However, it remains a challenge to quantify individual actors' share of responsibility for pollution, and to involve parties other than primary emitters in cleanup efforts. Here we present a new spatially explicit modeling approach to link SO2, NO x , and PM10 severe emissions hotspots to final consumers via global supply chains. These maps show developed countries reducing their emissions domestically but driving new pollution hotspots in developing countries. This is also the first time a spatially explicit footprint inventory has been established. Linking consumers and supply chains to emissions hotspots creates opportunities for other parties to participate alongside primary emitters and local regulators in pollution abatement efforts