Predicting pharmacodynamic effects through early drug discovery with artificial intelligence-physiologically based pharmacokinetic (AI-PBPK) modelling

A mechanism-based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model links the concentration-time profile of a drug with its therapeutic effects based on the underlying biological or physiological processes. Clinical endpoints play a pivotal role in drug development. Despite the substantial time and effort invested in screening drugs for favourable pharmacokinetic (PK) properties, they may not consistently yield optimal clinical outcomes. Furthermore, in the virtual compound screening phase, researchers cannot observe clinical outcomes in humans directly. These uncertainties prolong the process of drug development. As incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into the physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK) model can assist in forecasting pharmacodynamic (PD) effects within the human body, we introduce a methodology for utilizing the AI-PBPK platform to predict the PK and PD outcomes of target compounds in the early drug discovery stage. In this integrated platform, machine learning is used to predict the parameters for the model, and the mechanism-based PD model is used to predict the PD outcome through the PK results. This platform enables researchers to align the PK profile of a drug with desired PD effects at the early drug discovery stage. Case studies are presented to assess and compare five potassium-competitive acid blocker (P-CAB) compounds, after calibration and verification using vonoprazan and revaprazan

Predicting the Pharmacokinetics of Orally Administered Drugs across BCS Classes 1–4 by Virtual Bioequivalence Model

To evaluate the influence of solubility and permeability on the pharmacokinetic prediction performance of orally administered drugs using avirtual bioequivalence (VBE) model, a total of 23 orally administered drugs covering Biopharmaceutics Classification System (BCS) classes 1–4 were selected. A VBE model (i.e., a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model integrated with dissolution data) based on a B2O simulator was applied for pharmacokinetic (PK) prediction in a virtual population. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used for input parameter selection. The predictive performances of PK parameters (i.e., AUC0–t, Cmax, and Tmax), PK profiles, and bioequivalence (BE) results were evaluated using the twofold error, average fold error (AFE), absolute average fold error (AAFE), and BE reassessment metrics. All models successfully simulated the mean PK profiles, with AAFE < 2 and AFE ranging from 0.58 to 1.66. As for the PK parameters, except for the time of peak concentration, Tmax, of isosorbide mononitrate, other simulated PK parameters were all within a twofold error. The simulated PK behaviors were comparable to the observed ones, both for test (T) and reference (R) products, and the simulated T/R arithmetic mean ratios were all within 0.88–1.16 of the observed values. These four evaluation metrics were distributed equally among BCS class 1–4 drugs. The VBE model showed powerful performance to predict the PK behavior of orally administered drugs with various combinations of solubility and permeability, irrespective of the BCS category