Runout model evaluation based on back-calculation of building damage

We evaluated the ability of three debris-flow runout models (RAMMS, FLO2D and D-Claw) to predict the number of damaged buildings in simulations of the 9 January 2019 Montecito, California, debrisflow event. Observations of building damage after the event were combined with OpenStreetMap building footprints to construct a database of all potentially impacted buildings. At the estimated event volume, all models overpredict the number of damaged buildings by a factor of 1.5–3

Sloped and Mitered Concrete Headwalls

The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) currently uses several pipe culvert end treatments, including standard headwalls, slope and flared headwalls, sloped and parallel headwalls, and safety metal ends. These treatments, however, can pose a safety hazard to motorists and those performing landscaping work (e.g., mowing). Crash statistics from 2012 through 2016 for Kentucky reveal that 49 fatalities and 148 incapacitating injuries occurred in incidents where culverts/headwalls were coded as the first harmful event on the police report. One solution to the safety hazards associated with standard pipe culvert headwalls is to use sloped and mitered concrete headwalls instead. To evaluate the viability of sloped and mitered concrete headwalls for widespread use, Kentucky Transportation Center (KTC) researchers reviewed industry guidance and best practices; observed, documented, and analyzed several projects on which sloped and mitered concrete headwalls were used; developed cost comparisons for sloped and mitered concrete headwalls and conventional headwalls, and evaluated specifications for sloped and mitered concrete headwalls adopted by other states. Sloped and mitered concrete headwalls conform with industry guidance and protect against significant vehicle damage. Observations of sloped and mitered concrete headwalls used on KYTC projects attested to the importance of establishing and applying unambiguous design and construction criteria. Specifically, the grade should be set before a slope and mitered headwall is installed. Furthermore, adding grate bars will improve performance as will securing pipe ends to the headwall. A sample of headwalls should be chosen for long-term monitoring purposes, with inspections conducted each year. Overall, sloped and mitered concrete headwalls are an attractive option given they can be installed quickly and without special equipment, their robust performance, and low cost compared to standard pipe culvert headwalls

Evolution of Debris‐Flow Initiation Mechanisms and Sediment Sources During a Sequence of Postwildfire Rainstorms

Wildfire alters vegetation cover and soil hydrologic properties, substantially increasing the likelihood of debris flows in steep watersheds. Our understanding of initiation mechanisms of postwildfire debris flows is limited, in part, by a lack of direct observations and measurements. In particular, there is a need to understand temporal variations in debris-flow likelihood following wildfire and how those variations relate to wildfire-induced hydrologic and geomorphic changes. In this study, we use a combination of in situ measurements, hydrologic monitoring equipment, and numerical modeling to assess the impact of wildfire-induced hydrologic and geomorphic changes on debris-flow initiation during seven postwildfire rainstorms. We predict the impact of hillslope erosion on debris-flow initiation by combining terrestrial laser scanning surveys of a hillslope burned during the 2016 Fish Fire with numerical modeling of sediment transport throughout a 0.12-km(2) basin in southern California. We use measurements of sediment thickness within the channel to constrain numerical experiments and to assess the role of channel sediment supply on debris-flow initiation. Results demonstrate that debris flows initiated during rainstorms where hillslopes contributed minimally to the event sediment yield and suggest that large inputs of sediment from rill and gully networks are not essential for runoff-generated debris flows. Simulations suggest that both the gradual entrainment of sediment and the mass failure of channel bed sediment can increase sediment concentration to levels associated with debris flows. Finally, postwildfire debris-flow initiation appears closely linked to the same rainfall intensity-duration threshold despite temporal changes in the sediment source, initiation processes, and hydraulic roughness.U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Hazards ProgramPublic domain articleThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [email protected]

A robust method to identify the occurrence of a runoff-generated debris flow

Debris flows generated by rainfall runoff can occur in rocky alpine landscapes and burned steeplands. Runoff-generated debris-flow events are commonly composed of a series of dense granular surge fronts separated by water-rich flows. Owing to this intra-event variability in flow composition and mechanics, post-event interpretations of preserved sedimentary deposits, or lack thereof, can result in a dizzying mix of interpretations that range from clearwater flow to debris flow. Accurate identification of the presence or absence of a debris flow during a runoff event is critical for building empirical models used to predict likelihood of debris-flow occurrence, rainfall thresholds, and flow properties. Here, we propose a simple, quantitative method to identify the occurrence of a runoff-generated debris flow, based on a dimensionless discharge Q* calculated as the ratio of the peak event discharge Qp to the theoretical maximum clearwater runoff rate Qw. Using a preliminary compilation of Q* values from floods and runoff-generated debris flows, we find 98% of floods have Q* values < 1.6, whereas 91% of debris flows have Q* values greater than 1.6. Estimating Q* is typically straightforward as part of standard post-event reconnaissance if suitable rainfall estimates are available, and appears to be a robust indicator that runoff-generated debris flows traversed a particular portion of a valley network

Measuring Basal Force Fluctuations of Debris Flows Using Seismic Recordings and Empirical Green's Functions

We present a novel method for measuring the fluctuating basal normal and shear stresses of debris flows by using along‐channel seismic recordings. Our method couples a simple parameterization of a debris flow as a seismic source with direct measurements of seismic path effects using empirical Green's functions generated with a force hammer. We test this method using two large‐scale (8 and 10 m³) experimental flows at the U.S. Geological Survey debris‐flow flume that were recorded by dozens of three‐component seismic sensors. The seismically derived basal stress fluctuations compare well in amplitude and timing to independent force plate measurements within the valid frequency range (15–50 Hz). We show that although the high‐frequency seismic signals provide band‐limited forcing information, there are systematic relations between the fluctuating stresses and independently measured flow properties, especially mean basal shear stress and flow thickness. However, none of the relationships are simple, and since the flow properties also correlate with one another, we cannot isolate a single factor that relates in a simple way to the fluctuating forces. Nevertheless, our observations, most notably the gradually declining ratio of fluctuating to mean basal stresses during flow passage and the distinctive behavior of the coarse, unsaturated flow front, imply that flow style may be a primary control on the conversion of translational to vibrational kinetic energy. This conversion ultimately controls the radiation of high‐frequency seismic waves. Thus, flow style may provide the key to revealing the nature of the relationship between fluctuating forces and other flow properties

Measuring Basal Force Fluctuations of Debris Flows Using Seismic Recordings and Empirical Green's Functions

We present a novel method for measuring the fluctuating basal normal and shear stresses of debris flows by using along‐channel seismic recordings. Our method couples a simple parameterization of a debris flow as a seismic source with direct measurements of seismic path effects using empirical Green's functions generated with a force hammer. We test this method using two large‐scale (8 and 10 m³) experimental flows at the U.S. Geological Survey debris‐flow flume that were recorded by dozens of three‐component seismic sensors. The seismically derived basal stress fluctuations compare well in amplitude and timing to independent force plate measurements within the valid frequency range (15–50 Hz). We show that although the high‐frequency seismic signals provide band‐limited forcing information, there are systematic relations between the fluctuating stresses and independently measured flow properties, especially mean basal shear stress and flow thickness. However, none of the relationships are simple, and since the flow properties also correlate with one another, we cannot isolate a single factor that relates in a simple way to the fluctuating forces. Nevertheless, our observations, most notably the gradually declining ratio of fluctuating to mean basal stresses during flow passage and the distinctive behavior of the coarse, unsaturated flow front, imply that flow style may be a primary control on the conversion of translational to vibrational kinetic energy. This conversion ultimately controls the radiation of high‐frequency seismic waves. Thus, flow style may provide the key to revealing the nature of the relationship between fluctuating forces and other flow properties

Forecasting the inundation of postfire debris flows

In the semi-arid regions of the western United States, postfire debris flows are typically runoff generated. The U.S. Geological Survey has been studying the mechanisms of postfire debris-flow initiation for multiple decades to generate operational models for forecasting the timing, location, and magnitude of postfire debris flows. Here we discuss challenges and progress for extending operational capabilities to include modeling postfire debris-flow inundation extent. Analysis of volume and impacted area scaling relationships indicated that postfire debris flows do not conform to assumptions of geometric self-similarity. We documented sensitivity of impacted areas to rainfall intensity using a candidate methodology for generating inundation hazard assessments. Our results emphasize the importance of direct measurements of debris-flow volume, inundated area, and high temporal resolution rainfall intensity