From catchment to national scale rainfall-runoff modelling: demonstration of a hydrological modelling framework

The increasing availability of digital databases (e.g. of climatology, topography, soils and land use) has enabled research into the generalisation of hydrological model parameter values from physical properties and the development of grid-based models. A hydrological modelling framework (HMF) is being developed to exploit this generalisation and provide a flexible gridded infrastructure, operational over regional, national or larger scales at a range of spatial and temporal resolutions. The capability of the framework is demonstrated through adaptation of an existing semi-distributed catchment-based rainfall-runoff model, CLASSIC, for which a generalised methodology exists to determine parameter values. The main change required was to ensure consistency of parameter values between the runoff procedure in CLASSIC and flow routing in the HMF. Assessment is by comparison of modelled and observed flow at grid points in Britain corresponding to gauging stations, both for catchments previously modelled and for new locations, for a range of catchment areas and physical properties and for four spatial resolutions (10, 5, 2.5 and 1 km). Good model performance is achieved for 90% of catchments tested, with a 5 km resolution proving adequate for catchments larger than 500 km2. Applications are outlined for which the framework could be used to test alternative modelling approaches or undertake consistent studies across the range of resolutions

Development and Evaluation of an Undergraduate Science Communication Module

This paper describes the design and evaluation of an undergraduate final year science communication module for the Science Faculty at the University of East Anglia. The module focuses specifically on science communication and aims to bring an understanding of how science is disseminated to the public. Students on the module are made aware of the models surrounding science communication and investigate how the science culture interfaces with the public. During the module they learn how to adapt science concepts for different audiences and how to talk confidently about science to a lay-audience. Student motivation for module choice centres on the acquisition of transferable skills and students develop these skills through designing, running and evaluating a public outreach event at a school or in a public area. These transferable skills acquired include communication, interaction with different organisations such as museums and science centres, developing understanding of both the needs of different audiences and the importance of time management. They also develop skills relating to self-reflection and how to use this as a tool for future self development. The majority of students completing the module go on to further study, either a PhD, MSc or teacher training. The module can be sustained in its present formed if capped at 40 students, however it is recognised that to increase cohort size, further investment of faculty time and resources would be required

A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

Skilful winter seasonal predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and northern Europe have now been demonstrated and the potential for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the UK is now being explored. One of the techniques being used combines seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by operational weather forecast systems with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of seasonal mean river flows up to a few months ahead. The work presented here shows how spatial information contained in a distributed hydrological model typically requiring high-resolution (daily or better) rainfall data can be used to provide an initial condition for a much simpler forecast model tailored to use low-resolution monthly rainfall forecasts. Rainfall forecasts (“hindcasts”) from the GloSea5 model (1996 to 2009) are used to provide the first assessment of skill in these national-scale flow forecasts. The skill in the combined modelling system is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and compared to what might be achieved using other approaches such as use of an ensemble of historical rainfall in a hydrological model, or a simple flow persistence forecast. The analysis indicates that only limited forecast skill is achievable for Spring and Summer seasonal hydrological forecasts; however, Autumn and Winter flows can be reasonably well forecast using (ensemble mean) rainfall forecasts based on either GloSea5 forecasts or historical rainfall (the preferred type of forecast depends on the region). Flow forecasts using ensemble mean GloSea5 rainfall perform most consistently well across Britain, and provide the most skilful forecasts overall at the 3-month lead time. Much of the skill (64 %) in the 1-month ahead seasonal flow forecasts can be attributed to the hydrological initial condition (particularly in regions with a significant groundwater contribution to flows), whereas for the 3-month ahead lead time, GloSea5 forecasts account for  ∼ 70 % of the forecast skill (mostly in areas of high rainfall to the north and west) and only 30 % of the skill arises from hydrological memory (typically groundwater-dominated areas). Given the high spatial heterogeneity in typical patterns of UK rainfall and evaporation, future development of skilful spatially distributed seasonal forecasts could lead to substantial improvements in seasonal flow forecast capability, potentially benefitting practitioners interested in predicting hydrological extremes, not only in the UK but also across Europe

How might climate change affect river flows across West Africa?

West Africa and its semi-arid Sahelian region are one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change with a history of extreme climate variability. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how projected climate change will affect precipitation at local and regional scales and the consequent impact on river flows and water resources across West Africa. Here, we aim to address this uncertainty by configuring a regional-scale hydrological model to West Africa. The model (hydrological modelling framework for West Africa—HMF-WA) simulates spatially consistent river flows on a 0.1° × 0.1° grid (approximately 10 km × 10 km) continuously across the whole domain and includes estimates of anthropogenic water use, wetland inundation, and local hydrological features such as endorheic regions. Regional-scale hydrological simulations driven by observed weather data are assessed against observed flows before undertaking an analysis of the impact of projected future climate scenarios from the CMIP5 on river flows up to the end of the twenty-first century. The results indicate that projected future changes in river flows are highly spatially variable across West Africa, particularly across the Sahelian region where the predicted changes are more pronounced. The study shows that median peak flows are projected to decrease by 23% in the west (e.g. Senegal) and increase by 80% in the eastern region (e.g. Chad) by the 2050s. The projected reductions in river flows in western Sahel lead to future droughts and water shortages more likely, while in the eastern Sahel, projected increases lead to future frequent floods

Assessing the spatial spread–skill of ensemble flood maps with remote-sensing observations

An ensemble of forecast flood inundation maps has the potential to represent the uncertainty in the flood forecast and provide a location-specific likelihood of flooding. Ensemble flood map forecasts provide probabilistic information to flood forecasters, flood risk managers and insurers and will ultimately benefit people living in flood-prone areas. Spatial verification of the ensemble flood map forecast against remotely observed flooding is important to understand both the skill of the ensemble forecast and the uncertainty represented in the variation or spread of the individual ensemble-member flood maps. In atmospheric sciences, a scale-selective approach has been used to evaluate a convective precipitation ensemble forecast. This determines a skilful scale (agreement scale) of ensemble performance by locally computing a skill metric across a range of length scales. By extending this approach through a new application, we evaluate the spatial predictability and the spatial spread–skill of an ensemble flood forecast across a domain of interest. The spatial spread–skill method computes an agreement scale at every grid cell between each unique pair of ensemble flood maps (ensemble spatial spread) and between each ensemble flood map with a SAR-derived flood map (ensemble spatial skill; SAR: synthetic aperture radar). These two are compared to produce the final spatial spread–skill performance. These methods are applied to the August 2017 flood event on the Brahmaputra River in the Assam region of India. Both the spatial skill and spread–skill relationship vary with location and can be linked to the physical characteristics of the flooding event such as the location of heavy precipitation. During monitoring of flood inundation accuracy in operational forecasting systems, validation and mapping of the spatial spread–skill relationship would allow better quantification of forecast systematic biases and uncertainties. This would be particularly useful for ungauged catchments where forecast streamflows are uncalibrated and would enable targeted model improvements to be made across different parts of the forecast chain

Exercise interventions to reduce anxiety in mid-life and late-life anxiety disorders and subthreshold anxiety disorder: a systematic review

Background: Anxiety disorders are highly prevalent and cause significant distress, disability, and cost. Medication adverse effects and interactions increase in mid-life and late-life, highlighting the need for effective non-pharmacological interventions. Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the extent of evidence supporting exercise interventions for anxiety and subthreshold anxiety disorders in mid-life and late-life. Design: Systematic review. Data Sources and Methods: We searched MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Embase, Emcare, Ovid Nursing, CINAHL Plus, Cochrane Library, Health Collection, Humanities & Social Sciences Collection, and https://clinicaltrials.gov databases for trials published January 1994–May 2019. Randomised controlled trials of exercise interventions involving aerobic exercise or resistance training for adults aged 40 years and above with anxiety or subthreshold anxiety disorders in residential or health settings were identified. The primary outcome was change in anxiety. We excluded trials including participants aged below 40 years, participants with diagnosis of separation anxiety, selective mutism, obsessive-compulsive disorder, acute stress disorder and post-traumatic stress disorder, and head-to-head comparisons of interventions. Trial quality was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool and evidence synthesised in narrative form. Results: Four trials totalling 132 participants met inclusion criteria, although some had methodological limitations. Interventions included a home-based resistance training intervention, supervised group-based aerobic intervention, Tai Chi intervention, and supervised group-based aerobic and strength intervention. Three trials included late-life participants and the fourth mid-life. Three trials demonstrated greater reductions in anxiety in the intervention group compared with control. The fourth trial showed pre–post reductions in anxiety in both groups, with between-group difference not reaching statistical significance. Conclusion: There is limited supportive evidence suggesting that exercise interventions have potential to be effective, feasible and safe non-pharmacological interventions for anxiety and subthreshold anxiety disorders in mid-life and late-life. The heterogeneity, limited number and high risk of bias of some trials meant that we were not able to conduct a meta-analysis. Tailoring of interventions may improve uptake and reduce dropout. The paucity of research in this area with only four included trials demonstrates the urgent need for future and larger trials to provide proof of concept, data about effective types and doses of exercise interventions, and guidance to community, clinical, and public health services

The UKSCAPE-G2G river flow and soil moisture datasets: Grid-to-Grid model estimates for the UK for historical and potential future climates

Appropriate adaptation planning is contingent upon information about the potential future impacts of climate change, and hydrological impact assessments are of particular importance. The UKSCAPE-G2G datasets were produced, as part of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) UK-SCAPE (UK Status, Change and Projections of the Environment) programme, to contribute to this information requirement. They use the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) national-scale hydrological model configured for both Great Britain and Northern Ireland (and the parts of the Republic of Ireland that drain to rivers in NI). Six separate datasets are provided, for two sets of driving data – one observation-based (1980–2011) and one climate-projection-based (1980–2080) – for both river flows and soil moisture on 1 km × 1 km grids across Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The river flow datasets include grids of monthly mean flow, annual maxima of daily mean flow, and annual minima of 7 d mean flow (m3 s−1). The soil moisture datasets are grids of monthly mean soil moisture content (m water  m soil), which should be interpreted as depth-integrated values for the whole soil column. The climate-projection-based datasets are produced using data from the 12-member 12 km regional climate model ensemble of the latest UK climate projections (UKCP18), which uses RCP8.5 emissions. The production of the datasets is described, along with details of the file format and how the data should be used. Example maps are provided, as well as simple UK-wide analyses of the various outputs. These suggest potential future decreases in summer flows, annual minimum 7 d flows, and summer/autumn soil moisture, along with possible future increases in winter flows and annual maximum flows. References are given for published papers providing more detailed spatial analyses, and some further potential uses of the data are suggested. The datasets are listed in Table 1

Don’t turn your back on the symptoms of psychosis : a proof-of-principle, quasi-experimental public health trial to reduce the duration of untreated psychosis in Birmingham, UK

Background: Reducing the duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) is an aspiration of international guidelines for first episode psychosis; however, public health initiatives have met with mixed results. Systematic reviews suggest that greater focus on the sources of delay within care pathways, (which will vary between healthcare settings) is needed to achieve sustainable reductions in DUP (BJP 198: 256-263; 2011). Methods/Design: A quasi-experimental trial, comparing a targeted intervention area with a ‘detection as usual’ area in the same city. A proof-of–principle trial, no a priori assumptions are made regarding effect size; key outcome will be an estimate of the potential effect size for a definitive trial. DUP and number of new cases will be collected over an 18-month period in target and control areas and compared; historical data on DUP collected in both areas over the previous three years, will serve as a benchmark. The intervention will focus on reducing two significant DUP component delays within the overall care pathway: delays within the mental health service and help-seeking delay. Discussion: This pragmatic trial will be the first to target known delays within the care pathway for those with a first episode of psychosis. If successful, this will provide a generalizable methodology that can be implemented in a variety of healthcare contexts with differing sources of delay. Trial registration: http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN45058713 Keywords: Public mental health campaign, First-episode psychosis, Early detection, Duration of untreated psychosis, Youth mental healt