2,078 research outputs found

    The Cost of Simplifying Air Travel When Modeling Disease Spread

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    BACKGROUND: Air travel plays a key role in the spread of many pathogens. Modeling the long distance spread of infectious disease in these cases requires an air travel model. Highly detailed air transportation models can be over determined and computationally problematic. We compared the predictions of a simplified air transport model with those of a model of all routes and assessed the impact of differences on models of infectious disease. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using U.S. ticket data from 2007, we compared a simplified "pipe" model, in which individuals flow in and out of the air transport system based on the number of arrivals and departures from a given airport, to a fully saturated model where all routes are modeled individually. We also compared the pipe model to a "gravity" model where the probability of travel is scaled by physical distance; the gravity model did not differ significantly from the pipe model. The pipe model roughly approximated actual air travel, but tended to overestimate the number of trips between small airports and underestimate travel between major east and west coast airports. For most routes, the maximum number of false (or missed) introductions of disease is small (<1 per day) but for a few routes this rate is greatly underestimated by the pipe model. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: If our interest is in large scale regional and national effects of disease, the simplified pipe model may be adequate. If we are interested in specific effects of interventions on particular air routes or the time for the disease to reach a particular location, a more complex point-to-point model will be more accurate. For many problems a hybrid model that independently models some frequently traveled routes may be the best choice. Regardless of the model used, the effect of simplifications and sensitivity to errors in parameter estimation should be analyzed

    Universality of the Ising Model on Sphere-like Lattices

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    We study the 2D Ising model on three different types of lattices that are topologically equivalent to spheres. The geometrical shapes are reminiscent of the surface of a pillow, a 3D cube and a sphere, respectively. Systems of volumes ranging up to O(10510^5) sites are simulated and finite size scaling is analyzed. The partition function zeros and the values of various cumulants at their respective peak positions are determined and they agree with the scaling behavior expected from universality with the Onsager solution on the torus (ν=1\nu=1). For the pseudocritical values of the coupling we find significant anomalies indicating a shift exponent ≠1\neq 1 for sphere-like lattice topology.Comment: 24 pages, LaTeX, 8 figure

    Islet isolation assessment in man and large animals

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    Recent progress in islet isolation from the pancreas of large mammals including man, accentuated the need for the development of precise and reproducible techniques to assess islet yield. In this report both quantitative and qualitative criteria for islet isolation assessment were discussed, the main topics being the determination of number, volume, purity, morphologic integrity and in vitro and in vivo function tests of the final islet preparations. It has been recommended that dithizone should be used as a specific stain for immediate detection of islet tissue making it possible to estimate both the total number of islets (dividing them into classes of 50 μ diameter range increments) and the purity of the final preparation. Appropriate morphological assessment should include confirmation of islet identification, assessment of the morphological integrity and of the purity of the islet preparation. The use of fluorometric inclusion and exclusion dyes together have been suggested as a viability assay to simultaneously quantitate the proportion of cells that are intact or damaged. Perifusion of islets with glucose provides a dynamic profile of glucose-mediated insulin release and of the ability of the cells to down regulate insulin secretion after the glycemic challenge is interrupted. Although perifusion data provides a useful guide to islet viability the quantity and kinetics of insulin release do not necessarily predict islet performance after implantation. Therefore, the ultimate test of islet viability is their function after transplantation into a diabetic recipient. For this reason, in vivo models of transplantation of an aliquot of the final islet preparation into diabetic nude (athymic) rodents have been suggested. We hope that these general guidelines will be of assistance to standardize the assessment of islet isolations, making it possible to better interpret and compare procedures from different centers. © 1990 Casa Editrice il Ponte

    Photodetachment study of the 1s3s4s ^4S resonance in He^-

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    A Feshbach resonance associated with the 1s3s4s ^{4}S state of He^{-} has been observed in the He(1s2s ^{3}S) + e^- (\epsilon s) partial photodetachment cross section. The residual He(1s2s ^{3}S) atoms were resonantly ionized and the resulting He^+ ions were detected in the presence of a small background. A collinear laser-ion beam apparatus was used to attain both high resolution and sensitivity. We measured a resonance energy E_r = 2.959 255(7) eV and a width \Gamma = 0.19(3) meV, in agreement with a recent calculation.Comment: LaTeX article, 4 pages, 3 figures, 21 reference

    Caribbean Corals in Crisis: Record Thermal Stress, Bleaching, and Mortality in 2005

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    BACKGROUND The rising temperature of the world's oceans has become a major threat to coral reefs globally as the severity and frequency of mass coral bleaching and mortality events increase. In 2005, high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean resulted in the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Satellite-based tools provided warnings for coral reef managers and scientists, guiding both the timing and location of researchers' field observations as anomalously warm conditions developed and spread across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality exceeded prior efforts in detail and extent, and provided a new standard for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing nowcast and forecast products. Collaborators from 22 countries undertook the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date and found that over 80% of corals bleached and over 40% died at many sites. The most severe bleaching coincided with waters nearest a western Atlantic warm pool that was centered off the northern end of the Lesser Antilles. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Thermal stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed from the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in over 150 years. Comparison of satellite data against field surveys demonstrated a significant predictive relationship between accumulated heat stress (measured using NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Degree Heating Weeks) and bleaching intensity. This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems and suggests a troubled future for tropical marine ecosystems under a warming climate.This work was partially supported by salaries from the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program to the NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program authors. NOAA provided funding to Caribbean ReefCheck investigators to undertake surveys of bleaching and mortality. Otherwise, no funding from outside authors' institutions was necessary for the undertaking of this study. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

    Outdoor Air Pollution Exposure and Inter-relation of Global Cognitive Performance and Emotional Distress in Older Women

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    The interrelationships among long-term ambient air pollution exposure, emotional distress and cognitive decline in older adulthood remain unclear. Long-term exposure may impact cognitive performance and subsequently impact emotional health. Conversely, exposure may initially be associated with emotional distress followed by declines in cognitive performance. Here we tested the inter-relationship between global cognitive ability, emotional distress, and exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter 2 (nitrogen dioxide) in 6118 older women (aged 70.6 ± 3.8 years) from the Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study. Annual exposure to PM2.5 (interquartile range [IQR] = 3.37 μg/m3) and NO2 (IQR = 9.00 ppb) was estimated at the participant’s residence using regionalized national universal kriging models and averaged over the 3-year period before the baseline assessment. Using structural equation mediation models, a latent factor capturing emotional distress was constructed using item-level data from the 6-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale and the Short Form Health Survey Emotional Well-Being scale at baseline and one-year follow-up. Trajectories of global cognitive performance, assessed by the Modified-Mini Mental State Examination (3MS) annually up to 12 years, were estimated. All effects reported were adjusted for important confounders. Increases in PM2.5 (β = -0.144 per IQR; 95% CI = −0.261; −0.028) and NO2 (β = −0.157 per IQR; 95% CI = −0.291; −0.022) were associated with lower initial 3MS performance. Lower 3MS performance was associated with increased emotional distress (β = −0.008; 95% CI = −0.015; −0.002) over the subsequent year. Significant indirect effect of both exposures on increases in emotional distress mediated by exposure effects on worse global cognitive performance were present. No statistically significant indirect associations were found between exposures and 3MS trajectories putatively mediated by baseline emotional distress. Our study findings support cognitive aging processes as a mediator of the association between PM2.5 and NO2 exposure and emotional distress in later-life
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