Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models: Is the Workhorse Model Identified?

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks the speed at which precision improves. It does not require any additional programming; a researcher just needs to generate artificial data and estimate the model with different T. Applying this to Smets and Wouters'(2007) medium size US model, we find that while exogenous shock processes are well identified, most of the parameters in the structural equations are not.Bayesian Estimation, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, Identification.

N=2 Supersymmetric Sigma Models and D-branes

We study D-branes of N=2 supersymmetric sigma models. Supersymmetric nonlinear sigma models with 2-dimensional target space have D0,D1,D2-branes, which are realized as A-,B-type supersymmetric boundary conditions on the worldsheet. When we embed the models in the string theory, the Kahler potential is restricted and leads to a 2-dim black hole metric with a dilaton background. The D-branes in this model are susy cycles and consistent with the analysis of conjugacy classes. The generalized metrics with U(n) isometry is proposed and dynamics on them are realized by linear sigma models. We investigate D-branes of the linear sigma models and compare the results with those in the nonlinear sigma models.Comment: 23 pages, 5 figure

K\"ahler Potential of Moduli Space of Calabi-Yau dd-fold embedded in CPd+1CP^{d+1}

We study a kaehler potential K of a one parameter family of Calabi-Yau d-fold embedded in CP^{d+1}. By comparing results of the topological B-model and the data of the CFT calculation at Gepner point, the K is determined unambiguously. It has a moduli parameter psi that describes a deformation of the CFT by a marginal operator. Also the metric, curvature and hermitian two-point functions in the neighborhood of the Gepner point are analyzed. We use a recipe of tt^{*} fusion and develop a method to determine the K from the point of view of topological sigma model. It is not restricted to this specific model and can be applied to other Calabi-Yau cases.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

Role of Survival Post-Progression in Phase III Trials of Systemic Chemotherapy in Advanced Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND: In advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), with the increasing number of active compounds available in salvage settings, survival after progression to first-line chemotherapy seems to have improved. A literature survey was conducted to examine whether survival post-progression (SPP) has improved over the years and to what degree SPP correlates with overall survival (OS). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Median progression-free survival (MPFS) time and median survival time (MST) were extracted in phase III trials of first-line chemotherapy for advanced NSCLC. SPP was pragmatically defined as the time interval of MST minus MPFS. The relationship between MPFS and MST was modeled in a linear function. We used the coefficient of determination (r(2)) to assess the correlation between them. Seventy trials with 145 chemotherapy arms were identified. Overall, median SPP was 4.7 months, and a steady improvement in SPP was observed over the 20 years (9.414-day increase per year; p<0.001) in parallel to the increase in MST (11.253-day increase per year; p<0.001); MPFS improved little (1.863-day increase per year). Overall, a stronger association was observed between MST and SPP (r(2) = 0.8917) than MST and MPFS time (r(2) = 0.2563), suggesting SPP and MPFS could account for 89% and 25% of the variation in MST, respectively. The association between MST and SPP became closer over the years (r(2) = 0.4428, 0.7242, and 0.9081 in 1988-1994, 1995-2001, and 2002-2007, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: SPP has become more closely associated with OS, potentially because of intensive post-study treatments. Even in advanced NSCLC, a PFS advantage is unlikely to be associated with an OS advantage any longer due to this increasing impact of SPP on OS, and that the prolongation of SPP might limit the original role of OS for assessing true efficacy derived from early-line chemotherapy in future clinical trials

Iron-Based Heavy Quasiparticles in SrFe4_{4}Sb12_{12}: An Infrared Spectroscopic Study

Temperature-dependent infrared reflectivity spectra of SrFe$_{4}$Sb$_{12}$ has been measured. A renormalized Drude peak with a heavy effective mass and a pronounced pseudogap of 10 meV develops in the optical conductivity spectra at low temperatures. As the temperature decreases below 100 K, the effective mass ($m^{*}$) rapidly increases, and the scattering rate ($1/\tau$) is quenched. The temperature dependence of $m^{*}$ and $1/\tau$ indicates that the hybridization between the Fe 3d spins and the charge carriers plays an important role in determining the physical properties of SrFe$_{4}$Sb$_{12}$ at low temperatures. This result is the clear evidence of the iron-based heavy quasiparticles.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE models: Identification using a diagnostic indicator

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2013) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (arti…cial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks the speed at which precision improves. As it does not require any additional programming, a researcher just needs to generate artificial data and estimate the model with increasing sample size, T. We apply this indicator to the benchmark Smets and Wouters’(2007) DSGE model of the US economy, and suggest how to implement this indicator on DSGE models

Visual evoked potentials in children prenatally exposed to methylmercury

Prenatal exposure to methylmercury can cause both neurobehavioral deficits and neurophysiological changes. However, evidence of neurotoxic effects within the visual nervous system is inconsistent, possibly due to incomplete statistical adjustment for beneficial nutritional factors. We evaluated the effect of prenatal methylmercury exposure on visual evoked potential (VEP) latencies in Faroese children with elevated prenatal methylmercury exposure. A cohort of 182 singleton term births was assembled in the Faroe Islands during 1994–1995. At age 7 years, VEP tracings were obtained from 139 cohort subjects after exclusion of subjects with abnormal vision conditions. We used multiple regression analysis to evaluate the association of mercury concentrations in cord blood and maternal hair at parturition with VEP latencies after adjustment for potential confounders that included the cord-serum phospholipid concentration of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and the duration of breastfeeding. Unadjusted correlations between mercury exposure and VEP latencies were equivocal. Multiple regression models showed that increased mercury concentrations, especially in maternal hair, were associated with delayed latencies for VEP peak N145. After covariate adjustment, a delay of 2.22 ms (p = 0.02) was seen for each doubling of the mercury concentration in maternal hair. In agreement with neuropsychological findings, the present study suggests that prenatal methylmercury exposure may have an adverse effect on VEP findings despite the absence of clinical toxicity to the visual system. However, this association was apparent only after adjustment for n-3 PUFA status

5G 3GPP-like Channel Models for Outdoor Urban Microcellular and Macrocellular Environments

For the development of new 5G systems to operate in bands up to 100 GHz, there is a need for accurate radio propagation models at these bands that currently are not addressed by existing channel models developed for bands below 6 GHz. This document presents a preliminary overview of 5G channel models for bands up to 100 GHz. These have been derived based on extensive measurement and ray tracing results across a multitude of frequencies from 6 GHz to 100 GHz, and this document describes an initial 3D channel model which includes: 1) typical deployment scenarios for urban microcells (UMi) and urban macrocells (UMa), and 2) a baseline model for incorporating path loss, shadow fading, line of sight probability, penetration and blockage models for the typical scenarios. Various processing methodologies such as clustering and antenna decoupling algorithms are also presented.Comment: To be published in 2016 IEEE 83rd Vehicular Technology Conference Spring (VTC 2016-Spring), Nanjing, China, May 201

Inventories and the Stockout Constraint in General Equilibrium

We study the implications of a stockout constraint in a dynamic general equilibrium model, which can explain both standard business cycle and inventory facts. Under this constraint, inventories and demand are complements in generating sales, and hence the optimal level of inventories increases in expected demand. We show that the inventory to sales ratio is both persistent and countercyclical because the cost of carrying inventories is mainly determined by the interest rate. We use this model to disentangle output and sales, by matching the key inventory moments, and find that preference and productivity shocks are equally important in the data. Finally, we assess whether improvements in inventory management can explain the Great Moderation. We find that, although improvements in inventory management can reduce the need for inventory holdings, which decreases output volatility relative to sales volatility, lower levels of inventories actually increases sales volatility. Because these two effects offset each other, a change in inventory management does not change output volatility to any great extent

Robustness of MEK-ERK Dynamics and Origins of Cell-to-Cell Variability in MAPK Signaling.

Cellular signaling processes can exhibit pronounced cell-to-cell variability in genetically identical cells. This affects how individual cells respond differentially to the same environmental stimulus. However, the origins of cell-to-cell variability in cellular signaling systems remain poorly understood. Here, we measure the dynamics of phosphorylated MEK and ERK across cell populations and quantify the levels of population heterogeneity over time using high-throughput image cytometry. We use a statistical modeling framework to show that extrinsic noise, particularly that from upstream MEK, is the dominant factor causing cell-to-cell variability in ERK phosphorylation, rather than stochasticity in the phosphorylation/dephosphorylation of ERK. We furthermore show that without extrinsic noise in the core module, variable (including noisy) signals would be faithfully reproduced downstream, but the within-module extrinsic variability distorts these signals and leads to a drastic reduction in the mutual information between incoming signal and ERK activity