Gradual emergence followed by exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Africa.

The geographic and evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (BA.1), which was first detected mid-November 2021 in Southern Africa, remain unknown. We tested 13,097 COVID-19 patients sampled between mid-2021 to early 2022 from 22 African countries for BA.1 by real-time RT-PCR. By November-December 2021, BA.1 had replaced the Delta variant in all African sub-regions following a South-North gradient, with a peak Rt of 4.1. Polymerase chain reaction and near-full genome sequencing data revealed genetically diverse Omicron ancestors already existed across Africa by August 2021. Mutations, altering viral tropism, replication and immune escape, gradually accumulated in the spike gene. Omicron ancestors were therefore present in several African countries months before Omicron dominated transmission. These data also indicate that travel bans are ineffective in the face of undetected and widespread infection

Retraction.

This is a retraction of 'Gradual emergence followed by exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Africa' 10.1126/science.add873

MOESM2 of Distinct parasite populations infect individuals identified through passive and active case detection in a region of declining malaria transmission in southern Zambia

Additional file 2. The modified ‘SNP π’ used to account for missing data and mixed allele calls was calculated as follows

Genetic Evidence of Focal Plasmodium falciparum Transmission in a Pre-elimination Setting in Southern Province, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Southern Province, Zambia has experienced a dramatic decline in Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in the past decade and is targeted for elimination. Zambias National Malaria Elimination Program recommends reactive case detection (RCD) within 140 m of index households to enhance surveillance and eliminate remaining transmission foci. METHODS: To evaluate whether RCD captures local transmission, we genotyped 26 microsatellites from 106 samples collected from index (n = 27) and secondary (n = 79) cases detected through RCD in the Macha Hospital catchment area between January 2015 and April 2016. RESULTS: Participants from the same RCD event harbored more genetically related parasites than those from different RCD events, suggesting that RCD captures, at least in part, infections related through local transmission. Related parasites clustered in space and time, up to at least 250 m from index households. Spatial analysis identified a putative focal transmission hotspot. CONCLUSIONS: The current RCD strategy detects focal transmission events, although programmatic guidelines to screen within 140 m of index households may fail to capture all secondary cases. This study highlights the utility of parasite genetic data in assessing programmatic interventions, and similar approaches may be useful to malaria elimination programs seeking to tailor intervention strategies to the underlying transmission epidemiology

Therapeutic Efficacy of Artemether-Lumefantrine for Uncomplicated Falciparum Malaria in Northern Zambia.

Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is a first-line agent for uncomplicated malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum. The WHO recommends periodic therapeutic efficacy studies of antimalarial drugs for the detection of malaria parasite drug resistance and to inform national malaria treatment policies. We conducted a therapeutic efficacy study of AL in a high malaria transmission region of northern Zambia from December 2014 to July 2015. One hundred children of ages 6 to 59 months presenting to a rural health clinic with uncomplicated falciparum malaria were admitted for treatment with AL (standard 6-dose regimen) and followed weekly for 5 weeks. Parasite counts were taken every 6 hours during treatment to assess parasite clearance. Recurrent episodes during follow-up (n = 14) were genotyped to distinguish recrudescence from reinfection and to identify drug resistance single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and multidrug resistance protein 1 (mdr1) copy number variation. Day 7 lumefantrine concentrations were measured for correspondence with posttreatment reinfection. All children who completed the parasite clearance portion of the study (n = 94) were microscopy-negative by 72 hours. The median parasite elimination half-life was 2.7 hours (interquartile range: 2.1-3.3). Genotype-corrected therapeutic efficacy was 98.8% (95% CI: 97.6-100). Purported artemisinin and lumefantrine drug resistance SNPs in atp6, 3D7_1451200, and mdr1 were detected but did not correlate with parasite recurrence, nor did day 7 lumefantrine concentrations. In summary, AL was highly effective for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in northern Zambia during the study period. The high incidence of recurrent parasitemia was consistent with reinfection due to high, perennial malaria transmission

Distinct parasite populations infect individuals identified through passive and active case detection in a region of declining malaria transmission in southern Zambia

Abstract Background Substantial reductions in the burden of malaria have been documented in parts of sub-Saharan Africa, with elimination strategies and goals being formulated in some regions. Within this context, understanding the epidemiology of low-level malaria transmission is crucial to achieving and sustaining elimination. A 24 single-nucleotide-polymorphism Plasmodium falciparum molecular barcode was used to characterize parasite populations from infected individuals identified through passive and active case detection in an area approaching malaria elimination in southern Zambia. Methods The study was conducted in the catchment area of Macha Hospital in Choma District, Southern Province, Zambia, where the parasite prevalence declined over the past decade, from 9.2% in 2008 to less than 1% in 2013. Parasite haplotypes from actively detected, P. falciparum-infected participants enrolled in a serial cross-sectional, community-based cohort study from 2008 to 2013 and from passively detected, P. falciparum-infected individuals enrolled at five rural health centres from 2012 to 2015 were compared. Changes in P. falciparum genetic relatedness, diversity and complexity were analysed as malaria transmission declined. Results Actively detected cases identified in the community were most commonly rapid diagnostic test negative, asymptomatic and had submicroscopic parasitaemia. Phylogenetic reconstruction using concatenated 24 SNP barcode revealed a separation of parasite haplotypes from passively and actively detected infections, consistent with two genetically distinct parasite populations. For passively detected infections identified at health centres, the proportion of detectable polyclonal infections was consistently low in all seasons, in contrast with actively detected infections in which the proportion of polyclonal infections was high. The mean genetic divergence for passively detected infections was 34.5% for the 2012–2013 transmission season, 37.8% for the 2013–2014 season, and 30.8% for the 2014–2015 season. The mean genetic divergence for actively detected infections was 22.3% in the 2008 season and 29.0% in the 2008–2009 season and 9.9% across the 2012–2014 seasons. Conclusions Distinct parasite populations were identified among infected individuals identified through active and passive surveillance, suggesting that infected individuals detected through active surveillance may not have contributed substantially to ongoing transmission. As parasite prevalence and diversity within these individuals declined, resource-intensive efforts to identify the chronically infected reservoir may not be necessary to eliminate malaria in this setting

MOESM1 of Distinct parasite populations infect individuals identified through passive and active case detection in a region of declining malaria transmission in southern Zambia

Additional file 1. Flow diagram of sample selection

Temporal and spatial analysis of Plasmodium falciparum genomics reveals patterns of parasite connectivity in a low-transmission district in Southern Province, Zambia

Abstract Background Understanding temporal and spatial dynamics of malaria transmission will help to inform effective interventions and strategies in regions approaching elimination. Parasite genomics are increasingly used to monitor epidemiologic trends, including assessing residual transmission across seasons and importation of malaria into these regions. Methods In a low and seasonal transmission setting of southern Zambia, a total of 441 Plasmodium falciparum samples collected from 8 neighbouring health centres between 2012 and 2018 were genotyped using molecular inversion probes (MIPs n = 1793) targeting a total of 1832 neutral and geographically informative SNPs distributed across the parasite genome. After filtering for quality and missingness, 302 samples and 1410 SNPs were retained and used for downstream population genomic analyses. Results The analyses revealed most (67%, n = 202) infections harboured one clone (monogenomic) with some variation at local level suggesting low, but heterogenous malaria transmission. Relatedness identity-by-descent (IBD) analysis revealed variable distribution of IBD segments across the genome and 6% of pairs were highly-related (IBD ≥ 0.25). Some of the highly-related parasite populations persisted across multiple seasons, suggesting that persistence of malaria in this low-transmission region is fueled by parasites “seeding” across the dry season. For recent years, clusters of clonal parasites were identified that were dissimilar to the general parasite population, suggesting parasite populations were increasingly fragmented at small spatial scales due to intensified control efforts. Clustering analysis using PCA and t-SNE showed a lack of substantial parasite population structure. Conclusion Leveraging both genomic and epidemiological data provided comprehensive picture of fluctuations in parasite populations in this pre-elimination setting of southern Zambia over 7 years

What is the prevalence of COVID-19 detection by PCR among deceased individuals in Lusaka, Zambia? A postmortem surveillance study

Objectives To determine the prevalence of COVID-19 postmortem setting in Lusaka, Zambia.Design A systematic, postmortem prevalence study.Setting A busy, inner-city morgue in Lusaka.Participants We sampled a random subset of all decedents who transited the University Teaching Hospital morgue. We sampled the posterior nasopharynx of decedents using quantitative PCR. Prevalence was weighted to account for age-specific enrolment strategies.Interventions Not applicable—this was an observational study.Primary outcomes Prevalence of COVID-19 detections by PCR. Results were stratified by setting (facility vs community deaths), age, demographics and geography and time.Secondary outcomes Shifts in viral variants; causal inferences based on cycle threshold values and other features; antemortem testing rates.Results From 1118 decedents enrolled between January and June 2021, COVID-19 was detected among 32.0% (358/1116). Roughly four COVID-19+ community deaths occurred for every facility death. Antemortem testing occurred for 52.6% (302/574) of facility deaths but only 1.8% (10/544) of community deaths and overall, only ~10% of COVID-19+ deaths were identified in life. During peak transmission periods, COVID-19 was detected in ~90% of all deaths. We observed three waves of transmission that peaked in July 2020, January 2021 and ~June 2021: the AE.1 lineage and the Beta and Delta variants, respectively. PCR signals were strongest among those whose deaths were deemed ‘probably due to COVID-19’, and weakest among children, with an age-dependent increase in PCR signal intensity.Conclusions COVID-19 was common among deceased individuals in Lusaka. Antemortem testing was rarely done, and almost never for community deaths. Suspicion that COVID-19 was the cause of deaths was highest for those with a respiratory syndrome and lowest for individuals <19 years

Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the Southern Province of Zambia: Detection and Characterization of Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron Variants of Concern

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) have significantly impacted the global epidemiology of the pandemic. From December 2020 to April 2022, we conducted genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in the Southern Province of Zambia, a region that shares international borders with Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe and is a major tourist destination. Genetic analysis of 40 SARS-CoV-2 whole genomes revealed the circulation of Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), Delta (AY.116), and multiple Omicron subvariants with the BA.1 subvariant being predominant. Whereas Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants were associated with the second, third, and fourth pandemic waves, respectively, the Alpha variant was not associated with any wave in the country. Phylogenetic analysis showed evidence of local transmission and possible multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in Zambia from different European and African countries. Across the 40 genomes analysed, a total of 292 mutations were observed, including 182 missense mutations, 66 synonymous mutations, 23 deletions, 9 insertions, 1 stop codon, and 11 mutations in the non-coding region. This study stresses the need for the continued monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 circulation in Zambia, particularly in strategically positioned regions such as the Southern Province which could be at increased risk of introduction of novel VOCs