Most Probably Intersecting Families of Subsets

Let F be a family of subsets of an n-element set. It is called intersecting if every pair of its members has a non-disjoint intersection. It is well known that an intersecting family satisfies the inequality vertical bar F vertical bar <= 2(n-1). Suppose that vertical bar F vertical bar = 2(n-1) + i. Choose the members of F independently with probability p (delete them with probability 1 - p). The new family is intersecting with a certain probability. We try to maximize this probability by choosing F appropriately. The exact maximum is determined in this paper for some small i. The analogous problem is considered for families consisting of k-element subsets, but the exact solution is obtained only when the size of the family exceeds the maximum size of the intersecting family only by one. A family is said to be inclusion-free if no member is a proper subset of another one. It is well known that the largest inclusion-free family is the one consisting of all [n/2]-element subsets. We determine the most probably inclusion-free family too, when the number of members is (n([n/2])) + 1

The role of search engine optimization in search marketing

This paper examines the impact of search engine optimization (SEO) on the competition between advertisers for organic and sponsored search results. The results show that a positive level of search engine optimization may improve the search engine's ranking quality and thus the satisfaction of its visitors. In the absence of sponsored links, the organic ranking is improved by SEO if and only if the quality provided by a website is sufficiently positively correlated with its valuation for consumers. In the presence of sponsored links, the results are accentuated and hold regardless of the correlation. When sponsored links serve as a second chance to acquire clicks from the search engine, low-quality websites have a reduced incentive to invest in SEO, giving an advantage to their high-quality counterparts. As a result of the high expected quality on the organic side, consumers begin their search with an organic click. Although SEO can improve consumer welfare and the payoff of high-quality sites, we find that the search engine's revenues are typically lower when advertisers spend more on SEO and thus less on sponsored links. Modeling the impact of the minimum bid set by the search engine reveals an inverse U-shaped relationship between the minimum bid and search engine profits, suggesting an optimal minimum bid that is decreasing in the level of SEO activity. © 2013 INFORMS

Competing for attention in social communication markets

We investigate the incentives for social communication in the new social media technologies. Three features of online social communication are represented in the model. First, new social media platforms allow for increased connectivity; i.e., they enable sending messages to many more receivers, for the same fixed cost, compared to traditional word of mouth. Second, users contribute content because they derive status- or image-based utility from being listened to by their peers. Third, we capture the role of social differentiation, or how social distance between people affects their preferences for messages. In the model, agents endogenously decide whether to be a sender of information and then compete for the attention of receivers. An important point of this paper is that social communication incentives diminish even as the reach or the span of communication increases. As the span of communication increases, competition between senders for receiver attention becomes more intense, resulting in senders competing with greater equilibrium messaging effort. This in turn leads to lower equilibrium payoffs and the entry of fewer senders. This result provides a strategic rationale for the socalled participation inequality phenomenon, which is a characteristic of many social media platforms. We also show that social differentiation may enhance or deter sender entry depending on whether it can be endogenously influenced by senders. Finally, we examine how the underlying network structure (in terms of its density and its degree distribution) affects communication and uncover a nonmonotonic pattern in that increased connectivity first increases and then reduces the entry of senders

Contextual advertising

Contextual advertising entails the display of relevant ads based on the content that consumers view, exploiting the potential that consumers' content preferences are indicative of their product preferences. This paper studies the strategic aspects of such advertising, considering an intermediary who has access to a content base, sells advertising space to advertisers who compete in the product market, and provides the targeting technology. The results show that contextual targeting impacts advertiser profit in two ways: First, advertising through relevant content topics helps advertisers reach consumers with a strong preference for their product. Second, heterogeneity in consumers' content preferences can be leveraged to reduce product market competition, especially when competition is intense. The intermediary has incentives to strategically design its targeting technology, sometimes at the cost of the advertisers. When product market competition is moderate, the intermediary offers accurate targeting such that the consumers see the most relevant ads. When competition is high, the intermediary lowers the targeting accuracy such that the consumers see less relevant ads. Doing so intensifies competition and encourages advertisers to bid for multiple content topics in order to prevent their competitors from reaching consumers. In some cases, this may lead to an asymmetric equilibrium where one advertiser bids high even for the content topic that is more relevant to its competitor. © 2012 INFORMS

Predicting mobile advertising response using consumer colocation networks

Building on results from economics and consumer behavior, the authors theorize that consumers' movement patterns are informative of their product preferences, and this study proposes that marketers monetize this information using dynamic networks that capture colocation events (when consumers appear at the same place at approximately the same time). To support this theory, the authors study mobile advertising response in a panel of 217 subscribers. The data set spans three months during which participants were sent mobile coupons from retailers in various product categories through a smartphone application. The data contain coupon conversions, demographic and psychographic information, and information on the hourly GPS location of participants and on their social ties in the form of referrals. The authors find a significant positive relationship between colocated consumers' response to coupons in the same product category. In addition, they show that incorporating consumers' location information can increase the accuracy of predicting the most likely conversions by 19%. These findings have important practical implications for marketers engaging in the fast-growing location-based mobile advertising industry

Agenda chasing and contests among news providers

This article studies competition in contests with a focus on the news industry that is increasingly influenced by social media. The model assumes publishers to pick a single topic from a large pool based on the topics' prior “success” probabilities, thereby “chasing” potentially successful topics. Firms that publish topics that become successful divide a “reward” which can change with the number of competing firms and the number of successful topics. The results show that share structures can be categorized into three types that, in turn, lead to qualitatively different outcomes for the contest

Key Elements of the Ageing Management of the WWER-440/213 type Nuclear Power Plants

The owner’s intention of WWER-440/213 units in Central Europe is to keep the plants in operation as long as technically feasible and reasonable from business point of view. The preconditions of the long term operation and license renewal are the safety and good plant condition. The past and recent ageing management practices have to ensure the required condition and performance of the essential structures, systems and components. In the paper an overall picture of the long term operation of WWER-440/213 units is given. The review covers ageing of mechanical equipment, building structures and electrical equipment to. Key elements of the ageing management are identified and described. Basic issues of assessment of ageing of essential structures, systems and components, also the issues related to availability of design basis information and lacking environmental qualification are discussed. Reference examples typical for WWER-440/213 plants long term operation are given from Paks Nuclear Power Plant practice