Effect of Misreported Family History on Mendelian Mutation Prediction Models

People with familial history of disease often consult with genetic counselors about their chance of carrying mutations that increase disease risk. To aid them, genetic counselors use Mendelian models that predict whether the person carries deleterious mutations based on their reported family history. Such models rely on accurate reporting of each member\u27s diagnosis and age of diagnosis, but this information may be inaccurate. Commonly encountered errors in family history can significantly distort predictions, and thus can alter the clinical management of people undergoing counseling, screening, or genetic testing. We derive general results about the distortion in the carrier probability estimate caused by misreported diagnoses in relatives. We show that the Bayes Factor that channels all family history information has a convenient and intuitive interpretation. We focus on the ratio of the carrier odds given correct diagnosis vs. given misreported diagnosis to measure the impact of errors. We derive the general form of this ratio and approximate it in realistic cases. Misreported age of diagnosis usually causes less distortion than misreported diagnosis. This is the first systematic quantitative assessment of the effect of misreported family history on mutation prediction. We apply the results to the BRCAPRO model, which predicts the risk of carrying a mutation in the breast and ovarian cancer genes BRCA1 and BRCA2

Data-integration with pseudoweights and survey-calibration: application to developing US-representative lung cancer risk models for use in screening

Accurate cancer risk estimation is crucial to clinical decision-making, such as identifying high-risk people for screening. However, most existing cancer risk models incorporate data from epidemiologic studies, which usually cannot represent the target population. While population-based health surveys are ideal for making inference to the target population, they typically do not collect time-to-cancer incidence data. Instead, time-to-cancer specific mortality is often readily available on surveys via linkage to vital statistics. We develop calibrated pseudoweighting methods that integrate individual-level data from a cohort and a survey, and summary statistics of cancer incidence from national cancer registries. By leveraging individual-level cancer mortality data in the survey, the proposed methods impute time-to-cancer incidence for survey sample individuals and use survey calibration with auxiliary variables of influence functions generated from Cox regression to improve robustness and efficiency of the inverse-propensity pseudoweighting method in estimating pure risks. We develop a lung cancer incidence pure risk model from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial using our proposed methods by integrating data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and cancer registries

BayesMendel: An R Environment for Mendelian Risk Prediction

Several important syndromes are caused by deleterious germline mutations of individual genes. In both clinical and research applications it is useful to evaluate the probability that an individual carries an inherited genetic variant of these genes, and to predict the risk of disease for that individual, using information on his/her family history. Mendelian risk prediction models accomplish these goals by integrating Mendelian principles and state-of-the art statistical models to describe phenotype/genotype relationships. Here we introduce an R library called BayesMendel that allows implementation of Mendelian models in research and counseling settings. BayesMendel is implemented in an object--oriented structure in the language R and distributed freely as an open source library. In its first release, it includes two major cancer syndromes: the breast-ovarian cancer syndrome and the hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer syndrome, along with up-to-date estimates of penetrance and prevalence for the corresponding genes. Input genetic parameters can be easily modified by users. BayesMendel can also serve as a generic tool for genetic epidemiologists to flexibly implement their own Mendelian models for novel syndromes and local subpopulations, without reprogramming complex statistical analyses and prediction tools

Nonparametric Adjustment for Measurement Error in Time to Event Data

Measurement error in time to event data used as a predictor will lead to inaccurate predictions. This arises in the context of self-reported family history, a time to event predictor often measured with error, used in Mendelian risk prediction models. Using a validation data set, we propose a method to adjust for this type of measurement error. We estimate the measurement error process using a nonparametric smoothed Kaplan-Meier estimator, and use Monte Carlo integration to implement the adjustment. We apply our method to simulated data in the context of both Mendelian risk prediction models and multivariate survival prediction models, as well as illustrate our method using a data application for Mendelian risk prediction models. Results from simulations are evaluated using measures of mean squared error of prediction (MSEP), area under the response operating characteristics curve (ROC-AUC), and the ratio of observed to expected number of events. These results show that our adjusted method mitigates the effects of measurement error mainly by improving calibration and by improving total accuracy. In some scenarios discrimination is also improved

Extending Mendelian Risk Prediction Models to Handle Misreported Family History

Mendelian risk prediction models calculate the probability of a proband being a mutation carrier based on family history and known mutation prevalence and penetrance. Family history in this setting, is self-reported and is often reported with error. Various studies in the literature have evaluated misreporting of family history. Using a validation data set which includes both error-prone self-reported family history and error-free validated family history, we propose a method to adjust for misreporting of family history. We estimate the measurement error process in a validation data set (from University of California at Irvine (UCI)) using nonparametric smoothed Kaplan-Meier estimators, and use Monte Carlo integration to implement the adjustment. In this paper, we extend BRCAPRO, a Mendelian risk prediction model for breast and ovarian cancers, to adjust for misreporting in family history. We apply the extended model to data from the Cancer Genetics Network (CGN)

MULTIPLE DISEASES IN CARRIER PROBABILITY ESTIMATION: ACCOUNTING FOR SURVIVING ALL CANCERS OTHER THAN BREAST AND OVARY IN BRCAPRO

Mendelian models can predict who carries an inherited deleterious mutation of known disease genes based on family history. For example, the BRCAPRO model is commonly used to identify families who carry mutations of BRCA1 and BRCA2, based on familial breast and ovarian cancers. These models incorporate the age of diagnosis of diseases in relatives and current age or age of death. We develop a rigorous foundation for handling multiple diseases with censoring. We prove that any disease unrelated to mutations can be excluded from the model, unless it is sufficiently common and dependent on a mutation-related disease time. Furthermore, if a family member has a disease with higher probability density among mutation carriers, but the model does not account for it, then the carrier probability is deflated. However, even if a family only has diseases the model accounts for, if the model excludes a mutation-related disease, then the carrier probability will be inflated. In light of these results, we extend BRCAPRO to account for surviving all non-breast/ovary cancers as a single outcome. The extension also enables BRCAPRO to extract more useful information from male relatives. Using 1500 familes from the Cancer Genetics Network, accounting for surviving other cancers improves BRCAPRO’s concordance index from 0.758 to 0.762 (p = 0.046), improves its positive predictive value from 35% to 39% (p \u3c 10−6) without impacting its negative predictive value, and improves its overall calibration, although calibration slightly worsens for those with carrier probability \u3c 10%. Copyright c 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Chemokine CCL2 and its receptor CCR2 are increased in the hippocampus following pilocarpine-induced status epilepticus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Neuroinflammation occurs after seizures and is implicated in epileptogenesis. CCR2 is a chemokine receptor for CCL2 and their interaction mediates monocyte infiltration in the neuroinflammatory cascade triggered in different brain pathologies. In this work CCR2 and CCL2 expression were examined following status epilepticus (SE) induced by pilocarpine injection.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>SE was induced by pilocarpine injection. Control rats were injected with saline instead of pilocarpine. Five days after SE, CCR2 staining in neurons and glial cells was examined using imunohistochemical analyses. The number of CCR2 positive cells was determined using stereology probes in the hippocampus. CCL2 expression in the hippocampus was examined by molecular assay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Increased CCR2 was observed in the hippocampus after SE. Seizures also resulted in alterations to the cell types expressing CCR2. Increased numbers of neurons that expressed CCR2 was observed following SE. Microglial cells were more closely apposed to the CCR2-labeled cells in SE rats. In addition, rats that experienced SE exhibited CCR2-labeling in populations of hypertrophied astrocytes, especially in CA1 and dentate gyrus. These CCR2+ astroctytes were not observed in control rats. Examination of CCL2 expression showed that it was elevated in the hippocampus following SE.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The data show that CCR2 and CCL2 are up-regulated in the hippocampus after pilocarpine-induced SE. Seizures also result in changes to CCR2 receptor expression in neurons and astrocytes. These changes might be involved in detrimental neuroplasticity and neuroinflammatory changes that occur following seizures.</p