Health impact assessment of particulate pollution in Tallinn using fine spatial resolution and modeling techniques

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health impact assessments (HIA) use information on exposure, baseline mortality/morbidity and exposure-response functions from epidemiological studies in order to quantify the health impacts of existing situations and/or alternative scenarios. The aim of this study was to improve HIA methods for air pollution studies in situations where exposures can be estimated using GIS with high spatial resolution and dispersion modeling approaches.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Tallinn was divided into 84 sections according to neighborhoods, with a total population of approx. 390 000 persons. Actual baseline rates for total mortality and hospitalization with cardiovascular and respiratory diagnosis were identified. The exposure to fine particles (PM_2.5) from local emissions was defined as the modeled annual levels. The model validation and morbidity assessment were based on 2006 PM₁₀or PM_2.5levels at 3 monitoring stations. The exposure-response coefficients used were for total mortality 6.2% (95% CI 1.6–11%) per 10 μg/m³increase of annual mean PM_2.5concentration and for the assessment of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations 1.14% (95% CI 0.62–1.67%) and 0.73% (95% CI 0.47–0.93%) per 10 μg/m³increase of PM₁₀. The direct costs related to morbidity were calculated according to hospital treatment expenses in 2005 and the cost of premature deaths using the concept of Value of Life Year (VOLY).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The annual population-weighted-modeled exposure to locally emitted PM_2.5in Tallinn was 11.6 μg/m³. Our analysis showed that it corresponds to 296 (95% CI 76528) premature deaths resulting in 3859 (95% CI 10236636) Years of Life Lost (YLL) per year. The average decrease in life-expectancy at birth per resident of Tallinn was estimated to be 0.64 (95% CI 0.17–1.10) years. While in the polluted city centre this may reach 1.17 years, in the least polluted neighborhoods it remains between 0.1 and 0.3 years. When dividing the YLL by the number of premature deaths, the decrease in life expectancy among the actual cases is around 13 years. As for the morbidity, the short-term effects of air pollution were estimated to result in an additional 71 (95% CI 43–104) respiratory and 204 (95% CI 131–260) cardiovascular hospitalizations per year. The biggest external costs are related to the long-term effects on mortality: this is on average €150 (95% CI 40–260) million annually. In comparison, the costs of short-term air-pollution driven hospitalizations are small €0.3 (95% CI 0.2–0.4) million.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Sectioning the city for analysis and using GIS systems can help to improve the accuracy of air pollution health impact estimations, especially in study areas with poor air pollution monitoring data but available dispersion models.</p

Long-term effects of extreme weather events and eutrophication on the fish community of shallow Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia)

The fish kill in lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia) during the extraordinarily hot summer of 2010 evoked an investigation into the effects of environmental extremes and long-term eutrophication on the fish community of the lake. Current data on lake Peipsi indicate that temperature extremes and synergistic interactions with eutrophication have led to a radical restructuring of the fish community. Commercial landings of lake smelt, <em>Osmerus eperlanus eperlanus</em> m. <em>spirinchus</em> (Pallas), the previous dominant species of the fish community, have decreased dramatically since the 1930s, these declines being coupled with summer heat waves coinciding with low water levels. Gradual decline in smelt stock and catches was significantly related to a decline of near-bottom oxygen conditions and to a decrease in water transparency. The first documented fish kill in 1959 occurred only in the southern, most shallow and eutrophic lake (lake Pihkva). Recently, summer fish kill have become more frequent, involving larger areas of the lake. In addition to the cold-water species, <em>e.g. </em>smelt and vendace <em>Coregonus albula </em>(L.), the abundance of bottom-dwelling fishes such as ruffe <em>Gymnocephalus cernuus</em> (L.) and juvenile fish have significantly decreased after the 2010 heat wave probably due to hypoxia and warm water temperatures. This study showed that fish community structure in large shallow lakes may be very vulnerable to water temperature increases, especially temperature extremes in combination with eutrophication