Dislodged But Not Dead: Survivorship of a High Intertidal Snail Following Wave Dislodgement

Waves breaking on rocky shorelines impart large forces on intertidal organisms, sometimes dislodging individuals. Dislodged individuals may be deposited in habitats that have a greater risk of predation or that prevent return to preferred regions on the shore. Thus, dislodgement is often assumed to be lethal. We experimentally dislodged Littorina keenae snails from high in the intertidal zone to test the likelihood of survival. Under a variety of wave conditions, we measured return rates to the high shore of 54–90%, so in this species, dislodgement is not equal to death. Snails showed a strong preference for returning to the approximate tidal height from which they were dislodged, but we found no evidence of widespread homing behaviour back to the original site of dislodgement

Understanding and responding to danger from climate change: the role of key risks in the IPCC AR5

The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) identifies key risks in a changing climate to inform judgments about danger from climate change and to empower responses. In this article, we introduce the innovations and implications of its approach, which extends analysis across sectors and regions, and consider relevance for future research and assessment. Across key risks in the AR5, we analyze the changing risk levels and potential for risk reduction over the next few decades, an era with some further committed warming, and in the second half of the 21st century and beyond, a longer-term era of climate options determined by the ambition of global mitigation. The key risk assessment underpins the IPCC’s conclusion that increasing magnitudes of warming increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive, and irreversible impacts. Here, we emphasize central challenges in understanding and communicating risks. These features include the importance of complex interactions in shaping risks, the need for rigorous expert judgment in evaluating risks, and the centrality of values, perceptions, and goals in determining both risks and responses

Heat exposure and resilience planning in Atlanta, Georgia

The City of Atlanta, Georgia, is a fast-growing urban area with substantial economic and racial inequalities, subject to the impacts of climate change and intensifying heat extremes. Here, we analyze the magnitude, distribution, and predictors of heat exposure across the City of Atlanta, within the boundaries of Fulton County. Additionally, we evaluate the extent to which identified heat exposure is addressed in Atlanta climate resilience governance. First, land surface temperature (LST) was mapped to identify the spatial patterns of heat exposure and potential socioeconomic and biophysical predictors of heat exposure were assessed. Second, government and city planning documents and policies were analyzed to assess whether the identified heat exposure risks are addressed in Atlanta climate resilience planning. The average LST of Atlanta’s 305 block groups ranges from 23.7 °C (low heat exposure) in vegetated areas to 31.5 °C (high heat exposure) in developed areas across 13 summer days used to evaluate the spatial patterns of heat exposure (June-August, 2013-2019). In contrast to nationwide patterns, census block groups with larger historically marginalized populations (predominantly Black, less education, lower income) outside of Atlanta’s urban core display weaker relationships with LST (slopes ≈ 0) and are among the cooler regions of the city. Climate governance analysis revealed that although there are few strategies for heat resilience in Atlanta (n=12), the majority are focused on the city’s warmest region, the urban core, characterized by the city’s largest extent of impervious surface. These strategies prioritize protecting and expanding the city’s urban tree canopy, which has kept most of Atlanta’s marginalized communities under lower levels of outdoor heat exposure. Such a tree canopy can serve as an example of heat resilience for many cities across the United States and the globe

Geospatial analysis of BECCS deployment potential in the U.S.

Negative emissions from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been identified as a potentially important carbon mitigation technology. To date, much of the technical work and discussion on BECCS have focused on land use change and bioenergy potential, while the CCS components – including capacity, injectivity, and location of potential storage sites – have been overlooked. A geospatial analysis of biomass production and storage sites in the U.S. is conducted to discuss BECCS deployment in the U.S. across a range of biomass production scenarios. U.S. Department of Energy provides national annual biomass production data from 2015 to 2040. Extrapolating the production trends across different yield scenarios to 2100 shows average annual CO2 production from agricultural residue and energy crop of 720-1,220 Mt CO2 yr-1 and cumulative production of 27-47 Gt CO2. Considering that the estimated storage capacity in the U.S. is ~3,000 Gt CO2, absolute storage capacity is not likely to be a constraint on BECCS. However, collocation of high-density biomass (\u3e25 MW per 100×100 km2) and high injection rate storage sites (\u3e5 Mt CO2 yr-1) in 2040 yields biomass CO2 injection potential of 140-360 Mt CO2 yr-1. This represents 9-39% of the total biomass feedstock in the U.S. To achieve a biomass CO2 injection potential greater than 360 Mt CO2 yr-1, transportation networks of either biomass or CO2 will be needed. The geospatial analysis conducted in this study highlights the importance of previously overlooked CCS components in global BECCS assessments and provides a framework for future studies. Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract

Emissions redistribution and environmental justice implications of California’s clean vehicle rebate project

Vehicle electrification is expected to reduce, in aggregate, emissions of greenhouse gases and criteria air pollutants. However, increased electricity generation to support new electric vehicles introduces possible redistribution of point-source emissions from mobile vehicles to electric generating units such that emissions may decrease in some locations and increase in others, with implications for equity. The potential for vehicle electrification to thereby shift the spatial distribution of air-pollution burdens has been previously noted, but analyses have yet to evaluate specific implemented climate policies. Here, we develop a model to analyze the implications of California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) for emissions of greenhouse gases and criteria air pollutants, both in aggregate and in their distribution. Analyzing rebates for 2010–2021, we find that the CVRP reduced aggregate statewide emissions of CO2, NOX, and SO2 and increased aggregate statewide emissions of primary PM2.5. Furthermore, changes in air pollution are not distributed equally: our results indicate that, as a result of the CVRP, net primary PM2.5, NOX, and SO2 emissions reductions disproportionately occur in Least Disadvantaged Communities, as compared to Disadvantaged Communities, with community disadvantage defined according to CalEnviroScreen 4.0 per California legislation. If the current spatial distribution of electric vehicle rebates remains unchanged, we project that these inequities will continue through the state’s legislative goal of 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on California roadways by 2025, even with increased cleanliness of the electricity sources for new vehicles. Increased uptake of electric vehicles in communities facing the highest air pollution exposure, along with accelerated clean-energy generation, could ameliorate associated environmental inequities

Understanding, characterizing, and communicating responses to ocean acidification : challenges and uncertainties

Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 28, no. 2 (2015): 30-39, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2015.29.Over the past decade, ocean acidification (OA) has emerged as a major concern in ocean science. The field of OA is based on certainties—uptake of carbon dioxide into the global ocean alters its carbon chemistry, and many marine organisms, especially calcifiers, are sensitive to this change. However, the field must accommodate uncertainties about the seriousness of these impacts as it synthesizes and draws conclusions from multiple disciplines. There is pressure from stakeholders to expeditiously inform society about the extent to which OA will impact marine ecosystems and the people who depend on them. Ultimately, decisions about actions related to OA require evaluating risks about the likelihood and magnitude of these impacts. As the scientific literature accumulates, some of the uncertainty related to single-species sensitivity to OA is diminishing. Difficulties remain in scaling laboratory results to species and ecosystem responses in nature, though modeling exercises provide useful insight. As recognition of OA grows, scientists’ ability to communicate the certainties and uncertainties of our knowledge on OA is crucial for interaction with decision makers. In this regard, there are a number of valuable practices that can be drawn from other fields, especially the global climate change community. A generally accepted set of best practices that scientists follow in their discussions of uncertainty would be helpful for the community engaged in ocean acidification.NOAA Ocean Acidification Program and National Marine Fisheries Service (DSB, MP), NSF-supported Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making (SCD), and NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program (SS)

Organismal Climatology: Analyzing Environmental Variability at Scales Relevant to Physiological Stress

Predicting when, where and with what magnitude climate change is likely to affect the fitness, abundance and distribution of organisms and the functioning of ecosystems has emerged as a high priority for scientists and resource managers. However, even in cases where we have detailed knowledge of current species’ range boundaries, we often do not understand what, if any, aspects of weather and climate act to set these limits. This shortcoming significantly curtails our capacity to predict potential future range shifts in response to climate change, especially since the factors that set range boundaries under those novel conditions may be different from those that set limits today. We quantitatively examine a nine-year time series of temperature records relevant to the body temperatures of intertidal mussels as measured using biomimetic sensors. Specifically, we explore how a ‘climatology’ of body temperatures, as opposed to long-term records of habitat-level parameters such as air and water temperatures, can be used to extrapolate meaningful spatial and temporal patterns of physiological stress. Using different metrics that correspond to various aspects of physiological stress (seasonal means, cumulative temperature and the return time of extremes) we show that these potential environmental stressors do not always occur in synchrony with one another. Our analysis also shows that patterns of animal temperature are not well correlated with simple, commonly used metrics such as air temperature. Detailed physiological studies can provide guidance to predicting the effects of global climate change on natural ecosystems but only if we concomitantly record, archive and model environmental signals at appropriate scales

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. The IPCC was jointly established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in particular to assess in a comprehensive, objective, and transparent manner all the relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information to contribute in understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, the potential impacts, and the adaptation and mitigation options. Beginning in 1990, the IPCC has produced a series of Assessment Reports, Special Reports, Technical Papers, methodologies, and other key documents which have since become the standard references for policymakers and scientists.This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decisionmaking under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies

Effects of extreme weather events on child mood and behavior

Extreme weather events (EWEs) are increasing in frequency and severity as the planet continues to become warmer. Resulting disasters have the potential to wreak havoc on the economy, infrastructure, family unit, and human health. Global estimates project that children will be disproportionately impacted by the changing climate – shouldering 88% of the related burdens. Exposure to EWEs in childhood is traumatic, with ramifications for mental health specifically. Symptoms of posttraumatic stress, depression, and anxiety have all been associated with childhood EWE exposure and have the potential to persist under certain circumstances. Conversely, many childhood survivors of EWE also demonstrate resilience and experience only transient symptoms. While the majority of studies are focused on the effects resulting from one specific type of disaster (hurricanes), we have synthesized the literature across the various types of EWEs. We describe psychological symptoms and behavior, the potential for long-term effects, and potential protective factors and risk factors

A framework for complex climate change risk assessment

The approach encourages divergent thinking, which traverses sectoral and regional boundaries and recognizes links between physical and socio-economic drivers of risk. In this paper recent work describing complex climate change risk is synthesized. It includes concepts of compound, connected, and cascading interactions. It reflects on the consequences of risk assessment and response. It then establishes a framework for risk assessment that encompasses increasing levels of complexity. The framework is demonstrated through diverse case studies to illustrate how risk assessments can better consider and categorize complexity. For convenience and tractability, analysts tend to break risk assessments into silos, often taking a component-oriented view.UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Offic