Temporary Migration in Theories of International Mobility of Labour

There is an increasing awareness of an empirical relevance of temporary migration. This literature overview attempts to summarize the current state of knowledge about drivers and economic role of temporary migration. It sets together elements of relevant theories of initiation, perpetuation and return migration, international trade and conclusions from a growing body of empirical literature on returns, remittances and behaviour of immigrants in host economies, including labour markets. Distinguishing between permanent and temporary migration may help to explain not only the dynamics of the actual labour force movements but also to better describe their impact on source and host economies.temporary migration, migration theory, return migration, remittances

Search Equilibrium with Migration: the Case of Poland

The EU enlargement has facilitated labour force movements between the former EU member countries and the accession countries. Foremost, the outflow of workers from the new member countries to countries which introduced open-door policy has magnified. The aim of the paper is to shed some light on the possible effects of reinforced emigration from Poland on its labour market. In particular, it focuses on the impact of the migration flows on wages. The wage equation derived from the search and matching model augmented with migration flows (emigration and the return migration) was estimated employing Bayesian inference. It allowed calculating an approximate magnitude of emigration of workers and describing the impact the labour movements should have had on the real wage in Poland. From 2002 to 2006 the number of temporary emigrants increased by roughly 4.5% of the Polish population whereas the resulting increase in the real wage was moderate and amounted to over 1%. The implied elasticity of wages to reduction of the workforce due to emigration between 2003 and 2006 was in the range of 0.2–0.3. Mediocre response of wages to emigration corresponds well with earlier studies on the impact of emigration on the source country wage rate. Yet, the explanation of the limited impact of emigration on wages lies in the adjustment of the demand for labour in the steady-state and substantial intensity of the return migration predominantly to employment found in the data.emigration, integration, labour market, EU enlargement

Migration Flows and Labour Market in Poland

In the paper temporary migration flows are analyzed in conjunction with information on labour market gross flows. Gross migration flows were calculated on the base of the household survey that is conducted jointly with the LFS survey in Poland. The results indicate that the propensity to emigrate is higher for unemployed as compared with employed or non-participants. Moreover, after the EU accession these were employed and unemployed who experienced the most pronounced increase in the propensity to emigrate. The steadystate analysis of the gross labour market and migration flows delivers the estimate of the ratio of the temporary emigrants to the total population of Poland in the period 1994– 2006. The ratio rose sharply after the EU accession from around 2% in 2002 to roughly 6% in 2006. Although, higher intensity of migration movements is unlikely to considerably bias the labour market figures like the unemployment rate and the activity rate,it may still lead to notable biases in the estimates of the labour productivity if emigration trends are not properly accounted for in estimates of the LFS population data.emigration, labour market flows, labour market, EU enlargement

Non-accelerating wage inflation rate of unemployment in Poland

The model of the wage bargaining constitutes a framework for calculation of the NAWRU in Poland. The approach used in the paper let me trace changes of the natural unemployment rate in Poland in the context of structural changes in the economy in the last decade. Moreover, I introduced the endogenous equilibrium rate into the existing macroeconomic model — ECMOD. It allowed me to simulate NAWRU behavior after economic shocks. Simulation results shed some light on channels and speed of adjustment of the modelled economy. Interestingly, when NAWRU is tied to the stock of capital, relative prices and fiscal variables, the model is able to replicate high degree of the unemployment persistence.equilibrium unemployment, NAWRU, macromodel, labour market

An update of the macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD

The paper presents an update of the structural macroeconometric model of the Polish economy NECMOD. The updated version of the model is, similarly as its predecessor, used at the National Bank of Poland for forecasting and policy simulation exercises. NECMOD is a hybrid, medium-scale and partially forward-looking quarterly model with its structure rooted in the economic theory. Great emphasis has been put on modelling of the supply side of the economy and mechanisms that introduce high persistency of shocks. The present version of NECMOD was estimated on the data covering a period from 1995 to 2008. Its main advantage, as compared to the previous version, is a more detailed and coherent approach to the modelling of the external sector block. Now, secular changes in the exchange rate and foreign trade dynamics are explained jointly with reference to the taste-for-variety theory. Moreover, the current version of the model better reflects interdependencies between domestic and external sector, i.e. via exchange rate - wealth channel.Polish economy, macroeconometric model, macroeconomic model

Isoprenaline induced Takotsubo syndrome: Histopathological analyses of female rat hearts

Background: Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is a stress-induced disorder affecting mostly postmenopausal women. The aim of the study was to evaluate isoprenaline (ISO) dependent female rat model and histopathological characteristics in TTS. Methods: Forty-nine Sprague Dawley female rats, 12 weeks old, were injected intraperitoneally with a single dose of ISO at doses 50 (n = 8), 75 (n = 6), 100 (n = 3), 150 (n = 27) and 200 (n = 5) mg/kg body weight (bw). The control group (n = 6) was injected with physiological saline. The echocardiographic examination to assess wall motion abnormalities took place 24, 48, 72 h, and 7 days post-ISO. Histopathological analysis was performed on the basis of hematoxylin-eosin staining. Results: The total mortality rate was 3/49 (6.12%). The optimum dose of ISO to induce TTS was 150 mg/kg bw and 21/27 (77.77%) rats showed apical ballooning. Histopathological analysis revealed focal necrosis/apoptosis of cardiomyocytes with inflammatory and fibroblast-like cell infiltration. Foci were the most numerous in the central muscle layer with apical-basal gradient 24,48,72 h post-ISO (p < 0.05). Significant differences were noted 48 h post-ISO in the central layer in apical vs basal segments (p = 0.0032), in the endocardial layer in apical vs basal segments (0.00024) and in mid-cavital vs. basal segments (p = 0.0483). The number of foci in endocardium of apical region differ 48 h post-ISO in rats with a dose of 150 vs. 200 mg/kg bw (p = 0.0084).   Conclusions: The ISO female rat model of TTS is associated with higher optimum dose and lower mortality in comparison with the male TTS model. TTS presents as a singles cardiomyocyte disorder, foci concerned mainly central muscle layer with apical-basal gradient

Echocardiographic assessment of tricuspid regurgitation and pericardial effusion after cardiac device implantation

Background: The frequency of cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) implantations is constantly increasing. Pericardial effusion (PE) and tricuspid regurgitation (TR) may occur after CIED implantation. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the prevalence and risk factors for new occurrences or progression of TR and PE early after CIED implantation. Methods: This is an on-going, single-center, observational study of patients after their first CIED implantation, with an echocardiographic evaluation within 60 days before and 7 days after the procedure. Data are presented for first 110 consecutive patients who underwent CIED implantation from August 2015 to July 2016. Results: Median age was 75 years, and 44% were women. In total, 87 (79%) pacemakers, 21 (19%) implantable cardioverter-defibrillators and 2 cardiac resynchronization therapy devices were implanted. After CIED implantation, there was TR progression in 17 (16%) patients: 5 patients developed moderate TR, none developed severe TR. An increase in TR was more often observed after implantations performed by operators in training than by certified operators (35% vs. 12%, p = 0.02). New PE after the procedure was observed in 8 (7%) patients and was trivial ( < 5 mm) in all cases. Patients with new PE after implantation had lower baseline hemoglobin levels and tended to be women. Conclusions: New PE and an increase in TR severity are rare complications early after CIED implantation. Operator experience might be related to TR progression. Increasing the number of patients in the current on-going study will allow a more reliable assessment of the prevalence and risk factors of these complications

Risk of left atrial appendage thrombus in patients with atrial fibrillation and chronic kidney disease

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. The aim of this study was to compare the clinical characteristics, the incidence of left atrial appendage (LAA) thrombus and its predictors, and spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) in a population of patients with AF depending on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values. Methods: This study included 1962 patients who underwent transesophageal echocardiographic examination (TEE) prior to cardioversion or ablation in the years 2014–2018 in three cardiac centers. Results: More than a quarter of AF patients had decreased eGFR ( < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) and were characterized as a high-risk population, with more comorbidities, higher thromboembolic and bleeding risk compared to those with normal renal function. Oral anticoagulation (OAC) was prescribed in 97% and 93% of patients with decreased and normal eGFR, respectively, with a higher prevalence of prescribed non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs). The incidence of LAA thrombus (24%, 9% and 4%) and SEC (25%, 25% and 19%) increases simultaneously with a decrease in eGFR ( < 30, 30–59 and > 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively). Among patients prescribed reduced doses of NOAC, those with decreased eGFR were more often observed with LAA thrombus (10% vs. 2.5%). Non-paroxysmal AF, heart failure and previous bleeding were predictors of LAA thrombus, irrespective of eGFR value. CKD was the predictor of LAA thrombus in all patients including those with non-paroxysmal AF, males, without diabetes, without hypertension and with CHA2DS2-VASc < 2. Conclusions: Despite OAC, patients with concomitant AF and CKD remain at high risk for LAA thrombus formation

The benefits and costs of adjusting bank capitalisation: evidence from Euro Area countries

El artículo propone un marco para evaluar el impacto de los colchones de capital a nivel de todo el sistema y a nivel bancario. La evaluación se basa en un modelo FAVAR (Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression) que relaciona los ajustes bancarios individuales con la dinámica macroeconómica. El modelo FAVAR se estima individualmente para once economías de la zona del euro y se identifican impactos estructurales, lo que permite diagnosticar las principales vulnerabilidades de los sistemas bancarios nacionales y al mismo tiempo estimar los costes económicos a corto plazo del aumento de capital de los bancos. Sobre esta base, se realiza una evaluación completa de la relación coste-beneficio de un incremento en los colchones de capital. Los beneficios están relacionados con un aumento en la capacidad de resistencia de los bancos a perturbaciones adversas. Una mayor capitalización permite a los bancos hacer frente a impactos negativos y modera la reducción del crédito a economía real que se produce en circunstancias adversas. Los costes se relacionan con pérdidas transitorias de crédito y producción que son evaluadas tanto a nivel agregado como bancario. Se obtiene que un aumento en los ratios de capital tienen un impacto muy diferente en la actividad crediticia y económica, dependiendo de la forma en que los bancos se ajustan, es decir, bien a través de cambios en los activos o en capital.The paper proposes a framework for assessing the impact of system-wide and bank-level capital buffers. The assessment rests on a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model that relates individual bank adjustments to macroeconomic dynamics. We estimate FAVAR models individually for eleven euro area economies and identify structural shocks, which allow us to diagnose key vulnerabilities of national banking systems and estimate short-run economic costs of increasing banks’ capitalisation. On this basis, we run a fullyfledged cost-benefit assessment of an increase in capital buffers. The benefits are related to an increase in bank resilience to adverse shocks. Higher capitalisation allows banks to withstand negative shocks and moderates the reduction of credit to the real economy that ensues in adverse circumstances. The costs relate to transitory credit and output losses that are assessed both on an aggregate and bank level. An increase in capital ratios is shown to have a sharply different impact on credit and economic activity depending on the way banks adjust, i.e. via changes in assets or equity