Stock market development and economic growth in emerging economies

In the early 1980's several developing countries introduced liberalisation policies in their economies. One of the reforms they implemented was to develop their stock markets. The theoretical justification for the liberalisation process was provided by the work of McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973). Their model follows neo-classical assumptions on savings and investment. Other researchers later completed their model with respect to the stock market, and claimed that its development could benefit the emerging economies [Cho (1986)]. The aim of this thesis is to empirically examine if stock market development in a sample of emerging countries assisted economic growth or not. To examine this, we form three research questions. The first question is: what is the direct impact of stock market development on economic growth in developing countries? The second question refers to the indirect impact of stock market development on the economy via stock price volatility. The question is: has stock market volatility increased following liberalisation policies or not? The third question is: have the emerging stock markets become more integrated with each other and with developed markets following liberalisation? Stock market integration is a result of stock market development so we should expect these stock markets to become more integrated after they were liberalised. In examining these issues, we take into account the special circumstances surrounding each country. To this end we provide an overview of some of the emerging economies we examine and discuss the implications of their individual characteristics for our analysis. We carry out a literature survey which suggests that research in this area has been scarce. The few empirical evidence on these questions are mixed. This thesis aims to contribute to this growing literature by providing additional evidence on the questions we posed and by overcoming some of the problems which are inherent in the methodologies followed by previous researchers who examined these issues

Exploiting stochastic dominance to generate abnormal stock returns

We construct zero cost portfolios based on second and third degree stochastic dominance and show that they produce systematic, statistically significant, abnormal returns. These returns are robust with respect to the single index CAPM, the Fama-French 3-factor model, the Carhart 4-factor model and the liquidity 5-factor model. They are also robust with respect to momentum portfolios, transactions costs, varying time periods and when broken down by a range of risk factors, such as firm size, leverage, age, return volatility, cash flow volatility and trading volume

Macroeconomic effects on emerging-markets sovereign credit spreads

This paper investigates the explanatory and forecasting power of macroeconomic fundamentals on emerging market sovereign credit spreads. We pay special attention to a new set of macroeconomic factors related to market values that reflect investor expectations concerning future economic performance. The model we propose captures a significant part of the empirical variation in spreads. Importantly, it also includes a powerful forecasting component that extends up to 12 months outside the sample period. The forward-looking variables that we construct are significant and complement and enhance the explanatory content of the conventional variables found in the extant literature

Index tracking with utility enhanced weighting

Passive index investing involves investing in a fund that replicates a market index. Enhanced indexation uses the returns of an index as a reference point and aims at outperforming this index. The motivation behind enhanced indexing is that the indices and portfolios available to academics and practitioners for asset pricing and benchmarking are generally inefficient and, thus, susceptible to enhancement. In this paper we propose a novel technique based on the concept of cumulative utility area ratios and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to construct enhanced indices from the DJIA and S&P500. Four main conclusions are forthcoming. First, the technique, called the utility enhanced tracking technique (UETT), is computationally parsimonious and applicable for all return distributions. Second, if desired, cardinality constraints are simple and computationally parsimonious. Third, the technique requires only infrequent rebalancing, monthly at the most. Finally, the UETT portfolios generate consistently higher out-of-sample utility profiles and after-cost returns for the fully enhanced portfolios as well as for the enhanced portfolios adjusted for cardinality constraints. These results are robust to varying market conditions and a range of utility functions

An empirical analysis of marginal conditional stochastic dominance

Stochastic dominance is a more general approach to expected utility maximization than the widely accepted mean-variance analysis. However, when applied to portfolios of assets, stochastic dominance rules become too complicated for meaningful empirical analysis, and, thus, its practical relevance has been difficult to establish. This paper develops a framework based on the concept of Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance (MCSD), introduced by Shalit and Yitzhaki (1994), to test for the first time the relationship between second order stochastic dominance (SSD) and stock returns. We find evidence that MCSD is a significant determinant of stock returns. Our results are robust with respect to the most popular pricing models

Stock market development and economic growth in emerging economies

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International equity flows, marginal conditional stochastic dominance, and diversification

The weak empirical evidence linking diversification and international equity flows calls into question the diversification paradigm at the international level and the analytical framework it implies. Using the concept of Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance (MCSD) to estimate the diversification opportunities, this paper reexamines the role that diversification opportunities play in the determination of international equity flows. It provides strong evidence that when diversification opportunities are measured in terms of MCSD, they are significant determinants of international equity flows. Capital flows into dominant markets and flees markets that are dominated. These results are robust with respect to a range of conventional control variables documented in the outstanding literature

An alternative measure of the world market portfolio: determinants, efficiency, and information content

The world market portfolio plays an important role in international asset pricing, but is unobservable in practice. We first propose a framework for constructing a market proxy that corresponds to the “market portfolio” of financial theory. We then construct this proxy, analyze its determinants and test its efficiency and explanatory power over the period 1975–2007 with respect to the return generating processes of a broad asset universe. We show that its major determinants are traded assets and that it is not efficient. However, it is significant for explaining individual asset returns over an asset universe that includes stocks, bonds, money markets and commodities. The explanatory information is incremental to what is available in traded asset prices and the significance of this information is robust with respect to diversified portfolios generated by factor analysis and to characteristic-sorted portfolios as well as to various model specifications, including the single-index model, the Fama–French (1992) three factor model for stocks, and various specifications of multi-index models hedged and unhedged for foreign currency risk

The prudential effect of strategic institutional ownership on stock performance

This paper examines the effect of prudentially obligated strategic institutional ownership on the performance of firm stock returns. Using the concept of marginal conditional stochastic dominance (MCSD), performance is measured to include the whole distribution of stock returns instead of limiting itself to the first two moments of mean and variance. It provides strong evidence that prudentially obligated strategic institutional ownership is consistent with the fiduciary responsibility of prudential investment behaviour and that it is performance enhancing as well. Our results also provide evidence that although the effects of “pressure sensitive” and “pressure resistant” institutions affect the individual measures of risk aversion (moments of the distributions) differently, when the total distribution is considered, both types of institutional ownership reflect prudence and are performance enhancing. These results are robust with respect to a range of conventional control variables and estimation techniques

Time-variation in the value premium and the CAPM: evidence from European markets

Many previous studies document a robust premium for value versus growth stocks in international markets. We show that this premium is driven by few years where High Minus Low (HML) returns are high and significant. For instance, for 12 European markets the HML return is statistically significant, on average, approximately 36% of the years and for these statistically significant years the average monthly HML return is 2.24%. For the rest of the years (i.e. about 64% of the time) the average HML monthly return is only 0.54%. We also find that historical βs for value and growth portfolios vary significantly over time, change between good and bad economic conditions, and that value portfolio βs are not always smaller than growth portfolio βs for the majority of the sample markets. Finally, when time-variation in systematic risk is addressed, we cannot reject the zero-intercept hypothesis, i.e. portfolio returns appear consistent with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).