1 research outputs found
Safety improvement of traffic at railway crossings
U ovom radu su istraženi statistiÄki modeli za procenu frekvencije nesreÄa, težine
posledica nesreÄa i empirijskog rizika koji najviÅ”e odgovaraju lokalnim
karakteristikama putnih prelaza Srbiji u cilju identifikacije mesta visokog rizika na
mreži. Uzorak putnih prelaza lociranih na železniÄkoj mreži u Srbiji je koriÅ”Äen za
istraživanje sa istorijskim podacima o nesreÄama od pet godina. KoriÅ”Äeni su modeli
regresione analize (Puasonova regresija, Puasonov model sa viÅ”kom nula ā ZIP,
negativni binomni model ā NB, NB model sa viÅ”kom nula ā ZINB). Za modeliranje
frekvencije nesreÄa najbolje se pokazao ZIP model. Kod modeliranja i procene težine
posledica nesreÄa koriÅ”Äen je multinomni logit model. Za modeliranje empirijskog
rizika podacima najviŔe odgovara ZINB model. Identifikovane su promenljive koje su
znaÄajno povezane sa brojem i posledicama nesreÄa. KonaÄno, kalibrisani modeli
zajedno sa dva kriterijuma za rangiranje koji su primenjeni u ovom radu su poslužili za
identifikaciju putnih prelaza visokog rizika na mreži Železnica Srbije. Prvi kriterijum je
srednji totalni rizik na putnom prelazu, a drugi kriterijum je procena rizika koja je
zasnovana na srednjem empirijskom riziku.
PrihvaÄeni modeli frekvencije i posledica nesreÄa su poslužili za procenu redukcije
nesreÄa na putnim prelazima primenom odgovarajuÄih tehniÄkih mera za podizanje
nivoa bezbednosti. U tu svrhu uraÄena je sveobuhvatna analiza tehnologija i mera iz
drugih regiona, a koje se danas primenjuju ili se ispituje njihova efikasnost. KoristeÄi
njihova iskustva data je ocena efikasnosti koju bi te mere imale na putnim prelazima u
Srbiji.
U ovom radu vrÅ”eno je i neposredno istraživanje ponaÅ”anja vozaÄa na putnom
prelazu osiguranom drumskom signalizacijom, kao i nakon osiguranja istog putnog
prelaza aktivnim sistemom. Ovaj prelazak sa jednog sistema osiguranja na drugi sistem
bio je pogodan da bi se sprovelo istraživanje u cilju sagledavanja ponaÅ”anja vozaÄa u
dva razliÄita sistema, kao i bezbednosnih efekata koji su proizaÅ”li iz toga.In this paper there were developed statistical models for estimation of accident
frequency, accident severity and empirical risk, that correspond to local characteristics
of crossings in Serbia. The goal was to identify high risk locations. The data used were
from five year period. Several regression models were tried (Poisson regression, Zeroinflated
Poisson ā ZIP, negative binomial model ā NB, Zero-inflated NB model ā
ZINB). The most suitable model for modeling accident frequency was ZIP model. For
modeling accident severity multinomial logit model was used, whereas the best model
for empirical risk was ZINB model. The variables significantly linked to accident
frequency and severity were identified. Finally, the calibrated models together with two
ranking criteria were used in order to indentify high risk crossings in Serbian railway
network. The first criterion was mean total risk at a crossing, and the second one was
based on mean empirical risk.
The accepted models for accident frequency and severity were used for estimating
the reduction of accidents at railway crossings applying the corresponding technical
procedures for safety improvement. In order to accomplish this, there has been
performed a complete analysis of technologies and procedures from various regions,
which are used nowadays or are in phase of examining there efficency. Their results and
experience were used to estimate the efficency that those procedures would have in
Serbia.
In this paper the drivers' behaviour on railway crossing was also studied, both with
road signs and with active warining devices. This upgrade from one system to another
was useful for examining drivers' behaviour in two different systems, as well as the
safety effects that concequently appeared