Greater utility of molecular subtype rather than epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) markers for prognosis in high-risk non-muscle-invasive (HGT1) bladder cancer

Funding Information: ECO and AEK were funded by CRUK programme grant C5255/A23755. We would like to thank Marcus Green for cutting the sections and giving advice on optimisation of antibodies and to Dr Jong‐Wei Hsu for advice on antibody selection. LB was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service (NHS), the NIHR or the Department of Health. LB is part of the PathLAKE digital pathology consortium. These new Centres are supported by a £50m investment from the Data to Early Diagnosis and Precision Medicine strand of the UK government's Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, managed and delivered by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Differential clonal evolution in oesophageal cancers in response to neo-adjuvant chemotherapy

How chemotherapy affects carcinoma genomes is largely unknown. Here we report whole-exome and deep sequencing of 30 paired oesophageal adenocarcinomas sampled before and after neo-adjuvant chemotherapy. Most, but not all, good responders pass through genetic bottlenecks, a feature associated with higher mutation burden pre-treatment. Some poor responders pass through bottlenecks, but re-grow by the time of surgical resection, suggesting a missed therapeutic opportunity. Cancers often show major changes in driver mutation presence or frequency after treatment, owing to outgrowth persistence or loss of sub-clones, copy number changes, polyclonality and/or spatial genetic heterogeneity. Post-therapy mutation spectrum shifts are also common, particularly C>A and TT>CT changes in good responders or bottleneckers. Post-treatment samples may also acquire mutations in known cancer driver genes (for example, SF3B1, TAF1 and CCND2) that are absent from the paired pre-treatment sample. Neo-adjuvant chemotherapy can rapidly and profoundly affect the oesophageal adenocarcinoma genome. Monitoring molecular changes during treatment may be clinically useful

Ten months of temporal variation in the clinical journey of hospitalised patients with COVID-19: an observational cohort

Background: There is potentially considerable variation in the nature and duration of the care provided to hospitalised patients during an infectious disease epidemic or pandemic. Improvements in care and clinician confidence may shorten the time spent as an inpatient, or the need for admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) or high density unit (HDU). On the other hand, limited resources at times of high demand may lead to rationing. Nevertheless, these variables may be used as static proxies for disease severity, as outcome measures for trials, and to inform planning and logistics. Methods: We investigate these time trends in an extremely large international cohort of 142,540 patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Investigated are: time from symptom onset to hospital admission, probability of ICU/HDU admission, time from hospital admission to ICU/HDU admission, hospital case fatality ratio (hCFR) and total length of hospital stay. Results: Time from onset to admission showed a rapid decline during the first months of the pandemic followed by peaks during August/September and December 2020. ICU/HDU admission was more frequent from June to August. The hCFR was lowest from June to August. Raw numbers for overall hospital stay showed little variation, but there is clear decline in time to discharge for ICU/HDU survivors. Conclusions: Our results establish that variables of these kinds have limitations when used as outcome measures in a rapidly-evolving situation. Funding: This work was supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Wellcome [215091/Z/18/Z] and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1209135]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Ten months of temporal variation in the clinical journey of hospitalised patients with COVID-19: an observational cohort

Background: There is potentially considerable variation in the nature and duration of the care provided to hospitalised patients during an infectious disease epidemic or pandemic. Improvements in care and clinician confidence may shorten the time spent as an inpatient, or the need for admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) or high density unit (HDU). On the other hand, limited resources at times of high demand may lead to rationing. Nevertheless, these variables may be used as static proxies for disease severity, as outcome measures for trials, and to inform planning and logistics. Methods: We investigate these time trends in an extremely large international cohort of 142,540 patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Investigated are: time from symptom onset to hospital admission, probability of ICU/HDU admission, time from hospital admission to ICU/HDU admission, hospital case fatality ratio (hCFR) and total length of hospital stay. Results: Time from onset to admission showed a rapid decline during the first months of the pandemic followed by peaks during August/September and December 2020. ICU/HDU admission was more frequent from June to August. The hCFR was lowest from June to August. Raw numbers for overall hospital stay showed little variation, but there is clear decline in time to discharge for ICU/HDU survivors. Conclusions: Our results establish that variables of these kinds have limitations when used as outcome measures in a rapidly-evolving situation. Funding: This work was supported by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Wellcome [215091/Z/18/Z] and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1209135]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection and Risk of Stroke Types: A Prospective Cohort Study of 500 000 Chinese Adults

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of mortality and permanent disability in China, with large and unexplained geographic variations in rates of different stroke types. Chronic hepatitis B virus infection is prevalent among Chinese adults and may play a role in stroke cause. // METHODS: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank included >500 000 adults aged 30 to 79 years who were recruited from 10 (5 urban and 5 rural) geographically diverse areas of China from 2004 to 2008, with determination of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positivity at baseline. During 11 years of follow-up, a total of 59 117 incident stroke cases occurred, including 11 318 intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), 49 971 ischemic stroke, 995 subarachnoid hemorrhage, and 3036 other/unspecified stroke. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for risk of stroke types associated with HBsAg positivity. In a subset of 17 833 participants, liver enzymes and lipids levels were measured and compared by HBsAg status. // RESULTS: Overall, 3.0% of participants were positive for HBsAg. HBsAg positivity was associated with an increased risk of ICH (adjusted HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.16–1.44]), similarly for fatal (n=5982; adjusted HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.16–1.59]) and nonfatal (n=5336; adjusted HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.06–1.44]) ICH. There were no significant associations of HBsAg positivity with risks of ischemic stroke (adjusted HR, 0.97 [95% CI, 0.92–1.03]), subarachnoid hemorrhage (adjusted HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.57–1.33]), or other/unspecified stroke (adjusted HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.89–1.42]). Compared with HBsAg-negative counterparts, HBsAg-positive individuals had lower lipid and albumin levels and higher liver enzyme levels. After adjustment for liver enzymes and albumin, the association with ICH from HBsAg positivity attenuated to 1.15 (0.90–1.48), suggesting possible mediation by abnormal liver function. // CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese adults, chronic hepatitis B virus infection is associated with an increased risk of ICH but not other stroke types, which may be mediated through liver dysfunction and altered lipid metabolism

StopCOVID cohort : An observational study of 3,480 patients admitted to the Sechenov University hospital network in Moscow city for suspected COVID-19 infection

© 2020 Oxford University Press. This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Clinical Infectious Diseases following peer review. The version of record is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1535.BACKGROUND: The epidemiology, clinical course, and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in the Russian population are unknown. Information on the differences between laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed COVID-19 in real-life settings is lacking. METHODS: We extracted data from the medical records of adult patients who were consecutively admitted for suspected COVID-19 infection in Moscow, between April 8 and May 28, 2020. RESULTS: Of the 4261 patients hospitalised for suspected COVID-19, outcomes were available for 3480 patients (median age 56 years (interquartile range 45-66). The commonest comorbidities were hypertension, obesity, chronic cardiac disease and diabetes. Half of the patients (n=1728) had a positive RT-PCR while 1748 were negative on RT-PCR but had clinical symptoms and characteristic CT signs suggestive of COVID-19 infection.No significant differences in frequency of symptoms, laboratory test results and risk factors for in-hospital mortality were found between those exclusively clinically diagnosed or with positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR.In a multivariable logistic regression model the following were associated with in-hospital mortality; older age (per 1 year increase) odds ratio [OR] 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03 - 1.06); male sex (OR 1.71, 1.24 - 2.37); chronic kidney disease (OR 2.99, 1.89 - 4.64); diabetes (OR 2.1, 1.46 - 2.99); chronic cardiac disease (OR 1.78, 1.24 - 2.57) and dementia (OR 2.73, 1.34 - 5.47). CONCLUSIONS: Age, male sex, and chronic comorbidities were risk factors for in-hospital mortality. The combination of clinical features were sufficient to diagnoseCOVID-19 infection indicating that laboratory testing is not critical in real-life clinical practice.Peer reviewe

Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with severe COVID-19 registered in the ISARIC WHO clinical characterization protocol:A prospective, multinational, observational study

Purpose To determine its cumulative incidence, identify the risk factors associated with Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events (MACE) development, and its impact clinical outcomes. Materials and methods This multinational, multicentre, prospective cohort study from the ISARIC database. We used bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions to explore the risk factors related to MACE development and determine its impact on 28-day and 90-day mortality. Results 49,479 patients were included. Most were male 63.5% (31,441/49,479) and from high-income countries (84.4% [42,774/49,479]); however, >6000 patients were registered in low-and-middle-income countries. MACE cumulative incidence during their hospital stay was 17.8% (8829/49,479). The main risk factors independently associated with the development of MACE were older age, chronic kidney disease or cardiovascular disease, smoking history, and requirement of vasopressors or invasive mechanical ventilation at admission. The overall 28-day and 90-day mortality were higher among patients who developed MACE than those who did not (63.1% [5573/8829] vs. 35.6% [14,487/40,650] p < 0.001; 69.9% [6169/8829] vs. 37.8% [15,372/40,650] p < 0.001, respectively). After adjusting for confounders, MACE remained independently associated with higher 28-day and 90-day mortality (Odds Ratio [95% CI], 1.36 [1.33–1.39];1.47 [1.43–1.50], respectively). Conclusions Patients with severe COVID-19 frequently develop MACE, which is independently associated with worse clinical outcomes

The significance of tumour microarchitectural features in breast cancer prognosis: a digital image analysis

BACKGROUND: As only a minor portion of the information present in histological sections is accessible by eye, recognition and quantification of complex patterns and relationships among constituents relies on digital image analysis. In this study, our working hypothesis was that, with the application of digital image analysis technology, visually unquantifiable breast cancer microarchitectural features can be rigorously assessed and tested as prognostic parameters for invasive breast carcinoma of no special type. METHODS: Digital image analysis was performed using public domain software (ImageJ) on tissue microarrays from a cohort of 696 patients, and validated with a commercial platform (Visiopharm). Quantified features included elements defining tumour microarchitecture, with emphasis on the extent of tumour-stroma interface. The differential prognostic impact of tumour nest microarchitecture in the four immunohistochemical surrogates for molecular classification was analysed. Prognostic parameters included axillary lymph node status, breast cancer-specific survival, and time to distant metastasis. Associations of each feature with prognostic parameters were assessed using logistic regression and Cox proportional models adjusting for age at diagnosis, grade, and tumour size. RESULTS: An arrangement in numerous small nests was associated with axillary lymph node involvement. The association was stronger in luminal tumours (odds ratio (OR) = 1.39, p = 0.003 for a 1-SD increase in nest number, OR = 0.75, p = 0.006 for mean nest area). Nest number was also associated with survival (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.15, p = 0.027), but total nest perimeter was the parameter most significantly associated with survival in luminal tumours (HR = 1.26, p = 0.005). In the relatively small cohort of triple-negative tumours, mean circularity showed association with time to distant metastasis (HR = 1.71, p = 0.027) and survival (HR = 1.8, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: We propose that tumour arrangement in few large nests indicates a decreased metastatic potential. By contrast, organisation in numerous small nests provides the tumour with increased metastatic potential to regional lymph nodes. An outstretched pattern in small nests bestows tumours with a tendency for decreased breast cancer-specific survival. Although further validation studies are required before the argument for routine quantification of microarchitectural features is established, our approach is consistent with the demand for cost-effective methods for triaging breast cancer patients that are more likely to benefit from chemotherapy