Decarbonising energy regimes : methodological explorations and empirical insights for policy

Decarbonisation is an urgent, global challenge now widely recognised by policymakers, researchers, businesses and citizens alike. While decarbonisation presents a systemic challenge to our societies, it is increasingly framed as a political challenge. Shifting towards a fossil free future is a value-laden process, prone to political contestation. It is thus critical to examine politics and policy processes that influence and condition energy system change. This dissertation advances research on decarbonisation policy and politics by exploring methodological questions that help improve synergies between policy studies and energy transition studies. It sets out to answer the following research question: What novel contributions can textual methodologies bring to the study of decarbonisation policy and politics, both in terms of methods and empirical insights? The dissertation takes an interest in discursive approaches and unsupervised machine learning methods, in particular that of topic modelling, while having decarbonisation as the empirical context. The methodological exploration is carried out on two levels. First, the potential and limitations of each group of method are studied on the meta-level. Second, each method is applied to an empirical case. A topic modelling analysis is conducted on the development of the European Energy Union project, while the decline of coal-fired power generation in the United Kingdom is examined through a discourse analysis. The findings indicate that discursive methodologies can enhance our understanding of the role of political ideology and state orientation, publics, institutional and policy change in decarbonisation processes. In addition, discursive approaches are found to complement the classical energy transition frameworks. The examination of topic modelling shows that while the method can be used to examine policy-relevant corpora with an unprecedented scale and scope, seeking to gain straightforward qualitative or policy relevant value from the topic modelling output risks being misleading. As a novel methodological contribution, this dissertation suggests that topic modelling brings added value to textual analysis when used in mixed-method designs. To exemplify this, the study proposes embedded and sequential designs for incorporating topic modelling into the analytical processes of different qualitative textual methods. Taken together, the findings encourage scholars to further experiment with the use of computer mediated textual analysis approaches in practice. This study also highlights several higher level implications for research and policy. It calls for in-depth methodological dialogue among computational scientists, statistical experts and social scientists. This is because developing computational social science approaches requires that the models are designed to match the real-world societal phenomena they are applied to. Furthermore, the results provide important lessons learnt for transition scholars and policy-makers. The UK case shows that coal declined rapidly and with relatively little resistance by incumbent actors. The results also reveal how the Energy Union’s policy priorities have been increasingly geared towards decarbonisation objectives by furthering policy convergence between climate-security and energy efficiency-affordability paradigms.Energiajärjestelmien muutos kohti vähähiilisyyttä on yksi tämän hetken kriittisimmistä yhteiskunnallisista kysymyksistä. Viimeisimmissä tutkimuksissa on korostettu politiikan ja poliittisen ohjauksen merkitystä energiamurrosten toteutumisessa. Politiikantutkimus onkin muodostunut tärkeäksi osaksi energiamurrostutkimusta. Tässä väitöstutkimuksessa keskeinen huomio on energiapolitiikan tutkimuksen metodologisissa kysymyksissä. Erityisesti perehdytään ohjaamattomien koneoppimismenetelmien ja diskursiivisten metodien mahdollisuuksiin energiajärjestelmien muutosta tutkittaessa. Työn empiirinen osio tuo uutta tietoa hiilestä luopumisen diskurssista Isossa-Britanniassa ajanjaksolla 2000-2017 sekä siitä, miten Euroopan energiaunionin ilmasto- ja energiapoliittinen agenda on muotoutunut vuosina 2015-2018. Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan, miten energia-alan tutkimuskenttä tällä hetkellä hyödyntää olemassa olevia diskursiivisia politiikantutkimuksen menetelmiä. Tutkimus selvittää myös, mitä lisäarvoa aihemallinnus uutena ohjaamattomana koneoppimisen menetelmänä voi tuoda yhteiskunnalliseen energiatutkimukseen. Työ yhdistää näin tietoa kahdesta eri metodologisesta suuntauksesta, joita on tähän mennessä vielä vähän hyödynnetty energiatutkimuksessa. Väitöskirjassa laajennetaan ymmärrystä diskursiivisten menetelmien mahdollisuuksista ja hyödyistä energiatutkimuksessa. Tulokset osoittavat, mitä lisäarvoa nämä menetelmät tuovat erityisesti poliittisen ideologian, yhteiskunnallisen hyväksyttävyyden ja ihmisryhmiin liittyvien ilmiöiden (’publics’) analysointiin. Diskursiiviset lähestymistavat myös mahdollistavat instituutioiden ja politiikan muutoksen syvemmän ymmärtämisen ja täydentävät olemassa olevia energiamurroksen analyyttisia tutkimuskehikkoja. Koneoppimisesta saadut tulokset tuovat esiin aihemallinnuksen mahdollisuudet politiikantutkimuksessa. Samalla tulokset osoittivat, että aihemallinnuksen käyttö vaatii syvää ymmärrystä tämän koneoppimisen menetelmän taustaoletuksista ja rajallisuuksista. Väitöskirjassa esitetään, että aihemallinnuksen arvo tutkimusmenetelmänä tulee parhaiten esiin yhdistetyissä lähestymistavoissa (mixed-method designs). Tutkimuksessa esitetään esimerkkejä tällaisista lähestymistavoista eri laadullisen tekstianalyysien menetelmille. Kokonaisuudessaan tutkimuksen tulokset korostavat dialogin tärkeyttä tietojenkäsittely-, tilasto- ja sosiaalitieteiden tutkijoiden välillä, jotta koneoppimisen menetelmillä saadaan parhaiten vastattua yhteiskuntatieteiden tutkimuskysymyksiin. Tutkimuksen empiirinen osio puolestaan osoittaa, että Britanniassa hiilestä luopuminen on tapahtunut nopeammin ja vähemmällä vastustuksella kuin mitä aiempi tutkimus energiamurroksista on esittänyt. Aihemallinnusanalyysi antaa vahvistusta väitteelle, jonka mukaan Euroopan energiaunioni on lähentänyt energia- ja ilmastopolitiikkaa EU-tasolla. Vähähiilisyys on muodostumassa keskeiseksi energiapolitiikkaa yhdistäväksi pilariksi

A critical review of discursive approaches in energy transitions

This article critically reviews the use of discursive approaches in studies of sustainable energy transitions. The review is motivated by calls to further incorporate social scientific methodologies into energy research and assess their contribution to policy. We strive to answer three questions: (1) which discursive approaches have been used to study sustainable energy transitions; (2) what thematic topics and issue areas have been covered and (3) what is the added value of discursive research designs? Our analysis is based on a review of 77 articles from the years 2004–2016. Our findings show that discursive approaches were mostly used to analyse institutional change and policy strategies at the national level and to examine energy choices through political ideology and the perceptions of publics. Nuclear power received most coverage, while renewable energy technologies were mainly studied through conflicts and opposition. We demonstrate discursive research designs to examine four distinct policy areas and discuss the added value of these approaches for energy policy and research. Discursive methodologies enable scholars to enrich policy discussions through accounting for transitions as complex and dynamic processes of change.Peer reviewe

Discourses around decline : comparing the debates on coal phase-out in the UK, Germany and Finland

To accelerate sustainability transitions, policymakers have to set clear targets for the decline and phase-out of unsustainable technologies. As such decisions are contested, many different actor groups engage in the politics and discourse around decline. This chapter compares the debates surrounding coal phase-out in three countries: the UK, Germany and Finland. Despite major differences, e.g. in the relevance of coal for energy supply and jobs, we find many similarities in discourse dynamics, key arguments and the actor groups engaged. Our findings can therefore inform debates about coal and other unsustainable technologies in places where phase-outs are still pending. Our analysis advances the repertoire of comparative studies in transitions research, and shows how the technological innovation systems framework can be mobilized to also explore processes of technology decline

A Big Data View of the European Energy Union: Shifting from ‘a Floating Signifier’ to an Active Driver of Decarbonisation?

The Energy Union, a major energy sector reform project launched by the European Commission in 2015, has substantial clean energy and climate aims. However, scholarly caution has been raised about their feasibility, especially with regards to accommodating climate objectives with other closely related yet often competing policy goals. We therefore investigated the policy priorities of the Energy Union by performing a topic modelling analysis of over 5,000 policy documents. A big data analysis confirms that decarbonisation and energy efficiency dimensions are major building blocks in the Energy Union’s agenda. Furthermore, there are signals of policy convergence in terms of climate security and climate affordability policies. However, our analysis also suggests that the Commission is not actively prescribing trajectories for renewable policy development or paying close attention to declining incumbent energy generation technologies. Overall, we find that the Energy Union is not a ‘floating signifier’ but rather has a clear and incrementally evolving decarbonisation agenda. Whether it further develops into an active driver of decarbonisation will largely be determined by the implementation phase of the project

A Big Data View of the European Energy Union : Shifting from 'a Floating Signifier' to an Active Driver of Decarbonisation?

The Energy Union, a major energy sector reform project launched by the European Commission in 2015, has substantial clean energy and climate aims. However, scholarly caution has been raised about their feasibility, especially with regards to accommodating climate objectives with other closely related yet often competing policy goals. We therefore investigate the policy priorities of the Energy Union by performing a topic modelling analysis of over 5,000 policy documents. A big data analysis confirms that decarbonisation and energy efficiency dimensions are major building blocks in the Energy Union's agenda. Furthermore, there are signals of policy convergence in terms of climate security and climate affordability policies. However, our analysis also suggests that the Commission is not actively prescribing trajectories for renewable energy development or paying close attention to declining incumbent energy generation technologies. Overall, we find that the Energy Union is not a 'floating signifier' but rather has a clear and incrementally evolving decarbonisation agenda. Whether it further develops into an active driver of decarbonisation will largely be determined by the implementation phase of the project.Peer reviewe

Topic Modeling and Text Analysis for Qualitative Policy Research

This paper contributes to a critical methodological discussion that has direct ramifications for policy studies: how computational methods can be concretely incorporated into existing processes of textual analysis and interpretation without compromising scientific integrity. We focus on the computational method of topic modeling and investigate how it interacts with two larger families of qualitative methods: content and classification methods characterized by interest in words as communication units and discourse and representation methods characterized by interest in the meaning of communicative acts. Based on analysis of recent academic publications that have used topic modeling for textual analysis, our findings show that different mixed‐method research designs are appropriate when combining topic modeling with the two groups of methods. Our main concluding argument is that topic modeling enables scholars to apply policy theories and concepts to much larger sets of data. That said, the use of computational methods requires genuine understanding of these techniques to obtain substantially meaningful results. We encourage policy scholars to reflect carefully on methodological issues, and offer a simple heuristic to help identify and address critical points when designing a study using topic modeling.Peer reviewe

Circular Economy Transition in the Context of Multi-Level European Governance: The Cases of Finland and Scotland

The aim of this study is to outline how a circular economy (CE) is emerging as public policy programs in the context of European multi-level governance. Our findings highlight strong and relatively functional vertical governance relationships visible in the Finnish effort to promote a CE transition. We also found that Scotland faces difficulties with its ambitious CE policy, because it tries to follow the framework of the European mainstream multi-level governance as a non-EU-member country which contrasts with more conservative policies of the United Kingdom. Furthermore, the study identified clear horizontal governance relationships at national levels of both countries, because the central governments have to acquire know-how and support services from many arm’s length bodies which have the necessary expertise and capability to work flexibly with local governments and other stakeholders

Changing forest stakeholders’ perception of ecosystem services with linguistic nudging

Forest owners and professionals are key in facilitating transition to sustainable forest management as they can influence the processes of future forest practices and use. Recently, an emerging literature has examined the effects that viewing different types of information may have on stakeholder perceptions in the context of forest management. These studies have demonstrated a link between information interventions and preference change, but only to some degree. Therefore, there is a need to further explore individuals’ reactions to information on forest-based (ES) and to link these reactions to the design of policy instruments. Contributing to this gap, we explore whether Finnish forest owners’ and forestry professionals’ perceptions could be nudged towards more sustainable management by adjusting a policy text’s metaphorical content. In Finland, the official instructions recommend even-aged rotation forest management (RFM). Yet, owners and professionals have flexibility in choosing their management practices, and they could, for example, apply continuous-cover forest (CCF) practices, which in some areas and contexts have been shown to offer more ES and yield significantly less negative impacts on biodiversity than RFM [1]. We set up a nationwide survey, gathering 2113 responses from private forest owners and 1452 from forest professionals. The survey included a questionnaire collecting background information and the nudge. In the nudge part, the participants were asked to read a short text written by an expert on various aspects related to RFM and CCF. We designed four versions of the text presented, each of them with a different metaphorical emphasis, either business-as-usual, neutral, minor favouring towards CCF and major emphasis towards CCF. Each participant read one version and was then asked to rate the preference (worth striving for), plausibility (convincing, feels real, realistic) and understandability of the text (clear, coherent, well written). We investigated the effect of respondent characteristics and the effect of nudge on reported stance on CCF. Professionals provided more negative feedback on CCF than owners and this more negative as one increased the nudging in favor of CCF, while the forest owners’ opinion became more positive. The results also indicate that age and gender are determining variables in the nudge. Age affects in different manners between the stakeholder groups. Women, regardless of being professionals or owners, showed higher stance on CCF than men. Our study highlights the existing opinion divide towards CCF between key private forest owners and forest professionals in Finland. The opposite reaction of the stakeholder groups to the nudge highlights challenges of one-fits-all policy instruments to make policies more palatable. 1. Peura, M., et al. Continuous cover forestry is a cost-efficient tool to increase multifunctionality of boreal production forests in Fennoscandia. Biol. Conserv. 217 (2018).peerReviewe