Cost Efficiency and Subsidization in German Local Public Bus Transit

Subsidies are considered important means to facilitate the provision of public transit, yet the empirical evidence implies that they can have harming effects on costs and possibly also on operators' performance. This paper examines the impacts of deficit-balancing subsidies on the cost inefficiency of local public bus companies in Germany, where a complex system allocates ample financial support. Our empirical analysis relies on a unique dataset of 33 companies observed over a period of up to twelve years for a total of 231 observations. We employ a stochastic frontier cost function for panel data that account for unobserved heterogeneity and provide firm-specific, time-varying inefficiency estimates. Further, we allow variations in the optimal technology by randomizing some cost functions' coefficients in one of our model specifications. Subsidies directly enter the inefficiency function as a heteroscedastic variable. We find a positive effect of subsidies on the standard deviation of inefficiency, which implies that the range of companies' inefficiency increases with the level of subsidies relative to total costs. However, we also find that non-subsidized firms perform better in terms of cost efficiency

Development of an object-oriented pedestrian traffic flow simulation environment for transport terminal planning

In recent years, simulation has become an essential tool for planning, designing, and managing terminal operations. Simulation modeling of various aspects related to the dynamic nature of the pedestrian/passenger behavior within a transport terminal can effectively assist in the analysis, evaluation, emergency response planning, and decision support phases of the terminal's operation. In this paper, the development of an object-oriented environment that enables both the graphical description and simulation of pedestrian traffic flows at the microscopic level is discussed. The simulation environment provides generation capabilities so that a terminal station model is directly formed on the basis of preconstructed component models. Essential experimentation capabilities, including graphical representation, are provided for pedestrian-oriented and system-oriented measures of interest with explicit emphasis on the level of service. A case study for a 4-level station in the new Athens subway system is also used to demonstrate the potential and functionality of the simulation environment

The Gravity Model Specification for Modeling International Trade Flows and Free Trade Agreement Effects: A 10Year Review of Empirical Studies~!2009-07-09~!2010-01-28~!2010-04-22~!

The gravity model has been extensively used in international trade research for the last 40 years because of its considerable empirical robustness and explanatory power. Since their introduction in the 1960's, gravity models have been used for assessing trade policy implications and, particularly recently, for analyzing the effects of Free Trade Agreements on international trade. The objective of this paper is to review the recent empirical literature on gravity models, highlight best practices and provide an overview of Free Trade Agreement effects on international trade as reported by relevant gravity model-based studies over the past decade

Free trade agreement effects in the Mediterranean region: An analytic approach based on SURE gravity model

Free trade agreements (FTAs) are tools that have been widely implemented for enhancing trade between countries. As a result, various models have been developed in an effort to explain the effects of these agreements on trade. The objective of this study is to develop a model suitable for exploring FTA effects on trade flows in the Mediterranean region. For that purpose a model is developed for analyzing trade flows based on the family of gravity models; the model parameters are estimated by using the seemingly unrelated regression estimation approach, in an effort to account for cross-sectional heterogeneity, serial correlation, and heteroscedasticity in the data set used. Results of the derived models are discussed and indicate that FTA effects on trade flows do exist but remain relatively low compared with other factors such as transportation costs

Methodological Framework for Air Travel Demand Forecasting

Air-transport demand forecasting constitutes an important determinant of airport planning, design, and operations. Errors in forecasting can be very costly. Underestimating demand may lead to increased congestion, delay, and inadequate airport facilities. Overestimating demand may also create serious economic problems for airport authorities. It is, therefore, very important for airport planners to develop reliable forecasting models and to understand possible limitations in the forecasting accuracy of these models. The objective of this paper is to examine the predicting ability and forecasting accuracy of air-travel demand models. In particular, an analytical framework for developing econometric models is presented and postfact analysis is used to test the accuracy of the models. Statistical data describing air-travel demand patterns for two major international airports, the Frankfurt and the Miami International Airports, are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed models. In addition, the effect of external factors such as the deregulation of the air-transport industry is examined. The results suggest that simple models with few independent variables perform as well;Is more complicated and costly models, and that external factors have a pronounced effect on air-travel demand