Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

The EnMAP imaging spectroscopy mission towards operations

EnMAP (Environmental Mapping and Analysis Program) is a high-resolution imaging spectroscopy remote sensing mission that was successfully launched on April 1st, 2022. Equipped with a prism-based dual-spectrometer, EnMAP performs observations in the spectral range between 418.2 nm and 2445.5 nm with 224 bands and a high radiometric and spectral accuracy and stability. EnMAP products, with a ground instantaneous field-of-view of 30 m x 30 m at a swath width of 30 km, allow for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of surface variables from frequently and consistently acquired observations on a global scale. This article presents the EnMAP mission and details the activities and results of the Launch and Early Orbit and Commissioning Phases until November 1st, 2022. The mission capabilities and expected performances for the operational Routine Phase are provided for existing and future EnMAP users

Rassismus unter den Bedingungen charismatischer Herrschaft - zum Übergang von der Verfolgung zur Vernichtung gesellschaftlicher Minderheiten im Dritten Reich

Schmuhl H-W. Rassismus unter den Bedingungen charismatischer Herrschaft - zum Übergang von der Verfolgung zur Vernichtung gesellschaftlicher Minderheiten im Dritten Reich. In: Bracher KD, Funke M, Jacobsen H-A, eds. Politik und Gesellschaft im Dritten Reich. Bonn, Düsseldorf; 1992: 182-197