Determinants of Red Meat Trade Flows

International Relations/Trade,

Gravity models and the role of carryover inventories in international wheat trade

In this study, two approaches to the international wheat trade analysis are considered. First, a gravity model is derived from a general equilibrium model of world wheat trade to identify major determinants of the trade flows among trading countries. Second, an extended model is derived to analyze the effects of wheat inventory behavior and some endowment factors on the size of the wheat trade flows. The empirical results show that gravity models are applicable to agricultural commodities. In the case of wheat, income, population sizes of trading countries, distance between commercial centers, prices and levels of stock inventories are found to be major determinants of wheat trade flows

The effects of environment and technology on agricultural export

The impact of environmental policy on international trade has received a great deal of attention over the decades. Theory predicts that the relative level of a country's environmental policy, technology, and factor endowments will jointly determine international trade and specialisation. This study develops alternative empirical models of export shares to evaluate the effects of technology and efficiency, factor endowments, prices, and environmental risk factors on the exports. The models are applied to state agricultural export data since 1973 through 1996. Our findings support the hypothesis that states lose a comparative advantage in trade by stringent environmental regulations. Output prices and technological changes are found to be major determinants of export shares.international trade; environmental risk; technological change; factor endowments; agriculture; exports; export flows; environmental policy; environmental regulations; output prices.

ARFIMA Tests for Random Walks in Exchange Rates in Asian, Latin American and African-Middle Eastern Markets

This article examines fractional processes as alternatives to random walks in emerging foreign exchange rate markets. Sowell's (1992) joint maximum likelihood is used to estimate the ARFIMA parameters and test for random walks. The results show that, in most cases, the emerging market exchange rates follow fractionally integrated processes. Forecasts of exchange rates based on the fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average models are compared to those from the benchmark random walk models. A Harvey, Leybourne and Newbold (1997) test of equality of forecast performance indicates that the ARFIMA forecasts are more efficient in the multi-step-ahead forecasts than the random walk model forecasts. The presence of fractional integration is seen to be associated with market inefficiency in the exchange markets examined. The evidence suggests that fractional integrated processes are viable alternatives to random walks for describing and forecasting exchange rates in the emerging markets.ARFIMA tests, ML estimation, emerging markets, foreign exchange rates, forecast accuracy, F31, F37, F47

THE IMPACTS OF REGIONAL FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON WORLD VEGETABLE AND FRUIT TRADE FLOWS

The study objectives are to identify determinants of commodity trade flows and analyze the effects of major Regional Free Trade Agreements on specific vegetable and fruit trade. The RFTAs are evaluated to identify the extent to which free trade associations lead to trade expansion. Using panel data from 1999 to 2008 covering 48 countries, the study found that per capita income, population, and per capita production capacity are significant determinants of fruits and vegetable trade flows. The results show that NAFTA and EU enhanced vegetable and fruit trade through trade creation and limited trade diversion. The ASEAN association generated insignificant trade expansion. The effects of the MERCOSUR association are inconclusive and generally commodity-specific. The findings reveal that the exchange rate uncertainty significantly impairs commodity flows. However, unlike previous findings, our study suggests that the negative impact is not uniform and may vary by sector, commodity, and exchange rate uncertainty measures

THE IMPACTS OF REGIONAL FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON WORLD VEGETABLE AND FRUIT TRADE FLOWS

The study objectives are to identify determinants of commodity trade flows and analyze the effects of major Regional Free Trade Agreements on specific vegetable and fruit trade. The RFTAs are evaluated to identify the extent to which free trade associations lead to trade expansion. Using panel data from 1999 to 2008 covering 48 countries, the study found that per capita income, population, and per capita production capacity are significant determinants of fruits and vegetable trade flows. The results show that NAFTA and EU enhanced vegetable and fruit trade through trade creation and limited trade diversion. The ASEAN association generated insignificant trade expansion. The effects of the MERCOSUR association are inconclusive and generally commodity-specific. The findings reveal that the exchange rate uncertainty significantly impairs commodity flows. However, unlike previous findings, our study suggests that the negative impact is not uniform and may vary by sector, commodity, and exchange rate uncertainty measures

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement

International Relations/Trade,