Firm entry, credit shocks and business cycles

Ankara : The Department of Economics, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2012.Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2012.Includes bibliographical refences.In this thesis, we investigate whether, modelling firm dynamics together with credit markets in a two country frame, can provide additional information on international real business cycles in matching certain moments and explain other stylized statistics on business entry. Our motivation is the fact that, in the latest financial crisis, firm entry behavior is quite different between high income and low income countries. Solution of the model is provided with both productivity and credit shocks. Both kinds of shocks match a subset of stylized international business cycle facts. Plus in both kinds of shocks model exhibits the fact that volatility of new entrant firms are higher than incumbent ones. We show that credit shocks are better at explaining highly volatile business cycles in financially less developed countries. In the existence of country-specific credit shocks we observe contagion of crisis, comovements across countries do only exist with global credit shocks. We find out that the firm entry behaviour seen in latest financial crisis that financially developed countries has more volatile firm entry, is only possible with global shocks.Karasoy, Hatice GökçeM.S

Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği

This study analyzes the transmission of monetary policy decisions to financial markets under varying levels of monetary policy uncertainty. We conducted an event study for the period June 2010-January 2015. The uncertainty regarding to monetary policy is measured by the disagreement of expectations in the CBRT Survey of Expectations. Empirical findings indicate that the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism is highly affected by policy uncertainty. For example, a positive policy surprise leads to an appreciation of Turkish lira against US dollar under low levels of uncertainty, whereas Turkish lira depreciates when uncertainty is high. Furthermore, an increase in the main policy rate flattens the yield curve for all uncertainty levels. On the other hand, this pattern is more pronounced while uncertainty is low and contrary to expectations, long term rates decreases after a positive policy surprise. During the periods when uncertainty regarding monetary policy is low, positive policy surprise decreases long term rates via anchoring inflation expectations

Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği

This study analyzes the transmission of monetary policy decisions to financial markets under varying levels of monetary policy uncertainty. We conducted an event study for the period June 2010-January 2015. The uncertainty regarding to monetary policy is measured by the disagreement of expectations in the CBRT Survey of Expectations. Empirical findings indicate that the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism is highly affected by policy uncertainty. For example, a positive policy surprise leads to an appreciation of Turkish lira against US dollar under low levels of uncertainty, whereas Turkish lira depreciates when uncertainty is high. Furthermore, an increase in the main policy rate flattens the yield curve for all uncertainty levels. On the other hand, this pattern is more pronounced while uncertainty is low and contrary to expectations, long term rates decreases after a positive policy surprise. During the periods when uncertainty regarding monetary policy is low, positive policy surprise decreases long term rates via anchoring inflation expectations

Makroekonomi üzerine makaleler

Cataloged from PDF version of article.Thesis (Ph.D.): Bilkent University, Department of Economics, İhsan Doğramacı Bilkent University, 2018Includes bibliographical references (leaves 166-172).This dissertation consists of four essays on macroeconomics with a special emphasis on monetary economics and corporate finance. It presents empirical evidence for the floating rate channel in monetary policy transmission, highlighting the role of debt maturity when measuring cash flow exposure and its association with future path of policy. It then builds a theoretical model with New Keynesian properties in which endogenous borrowing constraints are source of amplification of fundamental shocks. The two blocks of the thesis, both empirical and theoretical essays, uncover the floating rate channel of monetary policy, with a comprehensive understanding and interpretation of corporate debt maturity, nature of repayment structure and forward guidance. The first essay investigates firm level stock price changes around monetary policy announcements in an event study framework, and finds that firms that have issued more floating rate debt see their stock prices affected more. Importantly, it shows that debt maturity is a crucial component of cash flow exposure. The firms with floating rate liabilities at longer maturities experience steeper fall in their stock prices. In addition to this, it provides further evidence regarding the floating rate channel by demonstrating that for the firms which hedge themselves against interest rate risk, the effect of the policy shock is mitigated. This indicates financial market sophistication, which is further explored in the form of statistical tests. Further, it is the path, or forward guidance component of monetary policy shock that triggers this channel since this is the aspect of the policy that shapes expectations about future short rates hence future floating rate debt payments. The results show that, in the zero lower bound period the floating rate channel continued to be effective because of forward guidance surprises. It is shown that this effect is not a result of rule of thumb behavior, and that the marginal stock market participant actually studies and correctly interprets the liability side of firm balance sheets. The tests of financial market sophistication, which are novel, contribute to the empirics of market rationality. Furthermore, the floating rate exposure at the time of monetary policy surprises predicts future investment and profitability, verifying the pricing decision and also providing evidence of another channel for monetary policy, due to financial effects. In short, this essay provides a detailed analysis of neo-classical monetary policy transmission involving firm balance sheets and provides a small glimpse of what lies behind Bernanke and Gertler’s (1995) “black box”. The second essay provides additional robustness checks and considers alternative regression model specifications to those in the first essay. This essay discusses the existence of floating rate channel for samples of different firm size classes, and for samples including or excluding specific sub-sectors. It shows that for small-sized firms, the channel is not evident, presumably resulting from the fact that their access to floating rate debt market is limited. This warrants further analysis, which will be taken up in the future. It confirms the cash flow effect and the protective power of hedging increases when the analysis excludes both financials and utilities sectors. Furthermore, it analyzes various specifications with additional control variables, time fixed effects, and provides further evidence for the zero lower bound period. The third essay builds a simple model in which both short term and long term debt co-exist. The essay is motivated by empirical papers which show that firms match their debt maturity structure and asset maturity. The model assumes that the sector which has long-lived capital is financed by long term debt, and the sector which has short-lived capital is financed by short term debt. The simple model provides an environment to discuss the sector-specific effects of the aggregate shocks and macro-prudential policies. In the second part of the essay, the simple real model is extended to a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which embeds nominal frictions due to price stickiness, which creates a role for monetary policy. The extended model has various policy implications. The impulse response functions to a similar monetary policy shock show that floating rate debt might be more disruptive for consumption. Moreover monetary policy is less effective in the floating rate case. These are in accordance with the findings of floating rate debt literature. Moreover it shows that lengthening the maturity of floating rate debt puts long term debt financed entrepreneurs into a more vulnerable position. This supports empirical findings in the first and second essay. The specific type of corporate debt that is used to finance investment, which eventually turns into production, plays a significant role in determining future cash flows, and that in turn is quite important for understanding monetary policy transmission. The fourth essay, which is the final essay of the thesis, is included to fulfill the publication requirement. It assesses empirically whether consumer confidence indices contain information about future private consumption growth in Turkey. To this end, empirical models for quarterly total, durable and nondurable consumption growth with and without sentiment indicators are presented, and in-sample forecasts and one-step-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from recursive OLS estimates are evaluated. It is demonstrated that consumer confidence indices are informative about consumption, however once other macro economic variables (e.g., exchange rate, labor income, real interest rate etc.) are included, gains from them in out-of-sample forecasts decrease significantly. Moreover there is no clear evidence for either precautionary savings motive or permanent income hypothesis.by Hatice Gökçe Karasoy Can.Ph.D

Prepubertal Juvenile Myasthenia Gravis; A Case With Early Onset And Bulbar Symptoms

WOS: 000328090600014Juvenile myasthenia gravis (JMG) is a rare autoimmune disease affecting the neuromuscular junction in children and adolescents. Its clinical presentation is usually associated with ethnicity and pubertal development. We present a 14 month old patient with, bulbar symptoms and a good clinical course. The age of onset in this case is lower than average and the case is in pharmacological remission after medical treatment. Prepubertal JMG is very rare during infancy in Caucasians and ocular symptoms are more common in prepubertal patients. This Caucasian case is uncommon since she has presented with bulbar symptoms and early onset

A case with Myoshi myopathy and retinitis pigmentosa

11th International Congress on Neuromuscular Diseases -- JUL 02-07, 2006 -- Istanbul, TURKEYWOS: 00023922940017

Presence of Concomitant Depression and its Effect on Clinical Course in Patients Diagnosed with Myasthenia Gravis

Objective: Myasthenia gravis (MG) is a chronic autoimmune disease with fluctuating non-specific symptoms, and symptoms are exacerbated by stress. Many psychiatric disorders, especially depression, may accompany MG. This study aimed to determine the presence of depression accompanying MG and the effect of depression on the clinical course. Materials and Methods: Ninety-eight patients were diagnosed with MG between the ages of 18 and 65 who had a follow-up of at least 1 year at Ege University Faculty of Medicine, Department of Neurology, Muscular Diseases Outpatient Clinic and who did not have any medical or psychiatric illness that prevented communication were included in our study. Instead, of using questionnaire forms to diagnose depression, a one-to-one interview method following Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Criteria (SCID-1) was preferred. The clinical course of patients with and without depression and their responses to standard symptomatic or immunosuppressive therapy was evaluated using the MG treatment response rating scale by the lead investigator, who was blind to the presence of depression in patients. Results: In the SCID-1 evaluation of our patients, depression was detected in 40.8% of the patients. Of our patients, 64.9% identified a stressor factor before the onset of disease symptoms. In the evaluation of treatment response, 19.4% of our patients had remission, and 80.6% had minimal symptoms. In evaluating the change in the clinical situation, improvement was detected in 88.8% of the patients. A statistically significant relationship was found between worse treatment response and depression (p=0.018). Conclusion: It was determined that depression was frequently present in patients with MG and the clinical course was worse in patients with depression. Therefore, it was aimed to draw attention to the importance of detecting depression in patients with MG and that treatment regulation in this direction might positively affect the course of the disease

Mitokondriyal Bozukluğu Olan Hastalarda Klinik ve Histopatolojik İnceleme

Objective: Mitochondrial diseases are clinically heterogenous group of disorders with widely varying clinical features. Diagnosis can be difficult and requires synthesis of clinical, biochemical, histopathological and molecular data. These investigations may not be available in most medical centers. Muscle biopsy provides an important information to confirm a mitochondrial disease. Ragged red fibers and cytochrome oxidase negative fibers are the morphological hallmark of mitochondrial diseases. In this study, we aimed to analyze clinical features and histopathological findings of patients with mitochondrial abnormalities on muscle biopsy. Methods: We retrospectively evaluated demographic and neurologic features, presenting symptoms, additional systemic manifestations, syndromic features of patients with mitochondrial abnormalities on muscle biopsy, according to diagnostic criteria for mitochondrial cytopathies. Results: Among 936 muscle biopsy sample, 118 showed mitochondrial abnormalities. Eighty four patients were considered as primary mitochondrial disease based on clinical and histopathologic features. The diagnosis of 34 patients was nonmitochondrial diseases according to their clinical features and additional histopathologic findings. The most common syndrome was chronic progressive external ophtalmoplegia in 61 patients. Fifteen patients had isolated proximal myopathy and 4 patients had Kearns Sayre syndrome, 2 patients had SANDO, 1 patient had MNGIE, 1 patient had MLASA. Conclusion: Mitochondrial abnormalities occur in both mitochondrial diseases and many nonmitochondrial diseases. The majority of patients with primary mitochondrial disorders have ophtalmologic abnormalities or neuromuscular manifestations. The accurate diagnosis of mitochondrial diseases relies on a multidisciplinary approach and muscle biopsy is useful in both accurate diagnosis and differential diagnosis.Amaç: Mitokondriyal hastalıklar, oldukça geniş ve değişken olan klinik özellikleriyle heterojen bir hastalık grubudur. Tanısı zor olabilir ve klinik, biyokimyasal, histopatolojik, moleküler verilerin birlikte değerlendirilmesini gerektirir. Bu incelemeler birçok merkezde uygulanamayabilir. Kas biyopsisi mitokondriyal hastalığı saptamada önemli bilgiler verir. Ragged red lifler ve sitokrom oksidaz negatif lifler mitokondriyal bozukluğun morfolojik bulgusudur. Bu çalışmada kas biyopsilerinde mitokondriyal anormallik saptanan olguların klinik özelliklerinin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Metod: Mitokondriyal sitopati tanı kriterlerine göre, kas biyopsilerinde mitokondriyal anormalliği saptanan olguların demografik ve nörolojik özellikleri, başvuru semptomları, eşlik eden sistemik tutulumları, sendromik özellikleri retrospektif olarak incelenmiştir. Bulgular: İncelenen 936 kas biyopsi örneğinden, 118'inde mitokondriyal anormallik görüldü. Seksendört hastada klinik ve histopatolojik özelliklerine dayanarak primer mitokondriyal hastalık düşünüldü. 34 hastada ise tanı klinik özellikleri ve eşlik eden diğer histopatolojik bulgular ile mitokondriyal doğada olmayan hastalıklar saptandı, sekonder mitokondriyal bozukluk olarak değerlendirildi. Bu çalışmada en sık görülen sendrom 61 hasta ile kronik progresif eksternal oftalmopleji idi. 15 hasta izole proksimal miyopati, 4 hasta Kearns Sayre sendromu, 2 hasta SANDO, 1 hasta MNGIE, 1 hasta MLASA olarak değerlendirildi. Sonuç: Mitokondriyal anormallikler hem primer mitokondriyal hastalıklarda hem de sekonder bozukluk olarak pek çok hastalıkta görülür. Primer mitokondriyal hastalığı olanların çoğunda oftalmolojik ve nöromuskuler tutulum görülmektedir. Mitokondriyal hastalıkların kesin tanısı multidisipliner bir yaklaşıma dayanır, kas biyopsisi hem tanı hem de geniş bir grup hastalığın ayırıcı tanısı için yararlı bir incelemedir