Cycles and Multiple Equilibria in the Market for Durable Lemons

We investigate the nature of market failure in a dynamic version of Akerlof (1970) where identical cohorts of a durable good enter the market over time. In the dynamic model, equilibria with qualitatively different properties emerge. Typically, in equilibria of the dynamic model, sellers with higher quality wait in order to sell and wait more than sellers of lower quality. Among other things, we show for any distribution of quality that there exist an infinite number of cyclical equilibria where all goods are traded within a certain number of periods after entering the market.

On Bundling in Insurance Markets

This paper analyzes the welfare consequences of bundling different risks in one insurance contract in markets where adverse selection is important. This question is addressed in the context of a competitive insurance model a la Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976) with two sources of risk. Accordingly, there are four possible types of individuals and many incentive compatibility constraints to be considered. We show that the effect of bundling on these incentive compatibility constraints is such that bundling always yields a welfare improvement, and this result only holds when all four types have strictly positive shares in the population. Due to the competition between insurance companies, these benefits accrue to consumers who potentially have fewer contracts to choose from, but benefit from the better sorting possibilities due to bundling.

Cycles and Multiple Equilibria in the Market for Durable Lemons

We investigate the nature of market failure in a dynamic version ofAkerlof (1970) where identicalcohorts of a durable good enter the market over time. In the dynamicmodel, equilibria withqualitatively different properties emerge. Typically, in equilibriaof the dynamic model, sellerswith higher quality wait in order to sell and wait more than sellersof lower quality. Our main resultis that for any distribution of quality that there exist an infinitenumber of cyclical equilibria whereall goods are traded within a certain number of periods afterentering the market

Auctions, Market Prices and the Risk Attitude Effect

This paper develops one possible argument why auctioning licenses to op- erate in an aftermarket may lead to higher prices in the aftermarket compared to a more random allocation mechanism. Key ingredients in the argument are differences in firms' risk attitudes and the fact that future market prof- its are uncertain so that winning an auction is like winning a lottery ticket. li one license is auctioned, auctions select the firm that is least risk averse. This is what we call the risk attitude effect. Firms that are less risk averse tend to set higher prices (or higher quantities in case quantity is the decision variable) in the marketplace than an average firm. When multiple licenses are auctioned, this conclusion gets strengthened when there is a differenti- ated Eertrand oligopoly in the marketplace. In case of Cournot competition, a strategic effect works against the risk attitude effect so that under certain conditions the more risk averse firms will be selected leading (again) to higher market prices

Continuous Time Trading in Markets with Adverse Selection

We investigate the nature of the adverse selection problem in a market for adurable goodwhere trading and entry of new buyers and sellers takes place in continuoustime. In thecontinuous time model equilibria with properties that are qualitativelydifferent from thestatic equilibria, emerge. Typically, in equilibria of the continuous timemodel sellers withhigher quality wait in order to sell and wait more than sellers of lower qualitydo. Among other things, we show that for any distribution of quality there exist an infinite number of cyclical equilibria where all goods are traded within a finite time after entering the market.This holds true even if the good is not perfectly durable or when buyers are not risk-neutral

A Theory of Procedurally Rational Choice: Optimization without Evaluation

This paper analyses the behavior of an individual who wants to maximize his utility function, but he is not able to evaluate it. There are many ways to choose a single alternative from a given set. We show that a unique utility maximizing procedure exists. Choices induced by this optimal procedure are always transitive but generally violate the Weak Axiom. In other words, utility maximizing individuals who are unable to evaluate their objective functions fail to exhibit rational revealed preferences

Information Overload in Multi-Stage Selection Procedures

The paper studies information processing imperfections in a fully rational decision-making network. It is shown that imperfect information transmission and imperfect information acquisition in a multi-stage selection game yield information overload. The paper analyses the mechanisms responsible for a seeming bounded rational behavior of the network and shows their similarities and distinctions. Two special cases of filtering selection procedures are investigated, where the overload takes its most limiting forms. The model developed in the paper can be applied both to organizations and to individuals. It can serve as a rational foundation for bounded rationality

Optimal signaling with cheap talk and money burning

We study Sender-optimal signaling equilibria with cheap talk and money-burning. Under general assumptions, the Sender never uses money-burning to reveal all states, but always wants to garble information for at least some states. With quadratic preferences and any log-concave density of the states, optimal communication is garbled for all states: money-burning, if used at all, is used to adjust pooling intervals. This is illustrated by studying in depth the well-known uniform-quadratic case. We also show how the presence of a cost of being “caught unprepared” that gives rise to a small change in a common assumption on the Receiver’s utility function makes full revelation through money-burning Sender-optimal