Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources

This paper will investigate the causal relationship between oil consumption and GNP. For this purpose, we will investigate the presence of cointegration among the variables and use a vector error correction model to test causality relationship. Empirical results for Turkey over the period 1971–2003 suggest that there is cointegration relationship between GNP and oil consumption. We found no causal relationship between oil consumption and GNP in short run whereas there is a long run unidirectional causality running from GNP to oil consumption.oil consumption, turkey, cointegration

Economic growth and electricity consumption in Turkey: a bound test approach

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyüme ile elektrik tüketimi ilişkisi 1974-2004 dönemi için incelenmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme ve elektrik tüketimi serileri farklı derecelerden durağan (I(0) ve I(1)) oldukları için aralarındaki ilişki Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ile araştırılmıştır. Bu yaklaşıma göre, seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve kısa dönemde değişkenler arasında pozitif bir ilişki ortaya çıkarken uzun dönemde bu ilişki negatif çıkmıştır.This paper investigates relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption for Turkey over the period 1974-2004. As economic growth and electricity consumption variables used in empirical analysis was different order of integration ( I(0) and I(1) ) we employed bound test approach. We found cointegration relationship between the variables and in short run there is positive relationship between the variables however in long run there is negative relationship

The effect of foreign trade on economic growth: The case of Turkey

Abstract. In this study, the causal relationships between export, import and economic growth in Turkey are analysed, using quarterly data from 1987 to 2017. In order to examine these relationships a number of econometric methods are applied, such as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test, Johansen Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test based on the Error Correction Model. The results show that all variables are stationary in the first difference. Furthermore, the validity of long-run relationships among variables is found by the Johansen cointegration test. Since the cointegration is observed between series, the Error Correction Model is used to determine the causality. The empirical findings from the causality test suggest that there is short-term bidirectional causality between economic growth and import in Turkey. On the other hand, according to the Error Correction Model, there is a long run unidirectional causality from economic growth to export in Turkey.Keywords. Export, Import, Economic growth, Cointegration, Causality, Error correction model.JEL. E40, F32, F36, G15

Remittances, institutional quality and investment in Sub-Saharan Africa

Purpose – This paper investigates the relationship between remittances, institutional quality and investment in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using data from 2004 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach – The two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimator is the main methodology used, while the system generalized method of moments (Sys-GMM) technique is employed to test the robustness of the results. Findings – The results show a positive and significant impact of remittances on investment in SSA. The findings further reveal a substitutional linkage between remittances and institutions in promoting investment. In essence, remittances serve as investment capital in countries with poor institutions. The results also show that the marginal significance of remittances as a source of funds for investment decreases in countries with well-developed institutions. Research limitations/implications – The sample excludes some of the SSA countries due to the unavailability of data. Practical implications – In the face of current institutional weaknesses, there is a need for SSA countries to prioritize policies that encourage the effective use of remittances for business activities. Furthermore, SSA countries must improve their economic freedom and democratic practices by reducing government size, protecting property rights, and promoting respect for political and civil rights. Originality/value – This is the first study to analyze the relationship between remittances, institutional quality and investment in SSA. It also provides a novel framework for future research on the remittance–investment nexus

Türkiye'de Ekonomik Büyüme ile Elektrik Tüketimi İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

This paper investigates relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption for Turkey over the period 1974-2004. As economic growth and electricity consumption variables used in empirical analysis was different order of integration ( I(0) and I(1) ) we employed bound test approach. We found cointegration relationship between the variables and in short run there is positive relationship between the variables however in long run there is negative relationship.Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyüme ile elektrik tüketimi ilişkisi 1974-2004 dönemi için incelenmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme ve elektrik tüketimi serileri farklı derecelerden durağan (I(0) ve I(1)) oldukları için aralarındaki ilişki Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ile araştırılmıştır. Bu yaklaşıma göre, seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve kısa dönemde değişkenler arasında pozitif bir ilişki ortaya çıkarken uzun dönemde bu ilişki negatif çıkmıştır

Türkiye'de Ekonomik Büyüme ile Elektrik Tüketimi İlişkisi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

This paper investigates relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption for Turkey over the period 1974-2004. As economic growth and electricity consumption variables used in empirical analysis was different order of integration ( I(0) and I(1) ) we employed bound test approach. We found cointegration relationship between the variables and in short run there is positive relationship between the variables however in long run there is negative relationship.Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyüme ile elektrik tüketimi ilişkisi 1974-2004 dönemi için incelenmiştir. Ekonomik büyüme ve elektrik tüketimi serileri farklı derecelerden durağan (I(0) ve I(1)) oldukları için aralarındaki ilişki Sınır Testi yaklaşımı ile araştırılmıştır. Bu yaklaşıma göre, seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve kısa dönemde değişkenler arasında pozitif bir ilişki ortaya çıkarken uzun dönemde bu ilişki negatif çıkmıştır

Electricity consumption and economic growth: evidence from Turkey

This study investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP in Turkey during the period of 1950-2000. Both of the series were found to be a stationary process around a structural break by the Zivot and Andrews test. Thus, two different methodologies have been employed to test the Granger non-causality: the Dolado-Lutkepohl test using the VARs in levels, and the standard Granger causality test using the detrended data. Both tests have yielded a strong evidence for unidirectional causality running from the electricity consumption to the income. This implies that the supply of electricity is vitally important to meet the growing electricity consumption, hence to sustain the economic growth in Turkey

Does Turkey need a new standby agreement?

Erdal T. Karagö

Is Health Management of the COVID-19 Pandemic a Cause of Agricultural Commodity Prices? New Evidences From Bootstrap Fourier Causality Test

Aim: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have included negative consequencesboth in health management and economic life at national and international level. The aim ofthis research is to examine the causal relationship between COVID-19 pandemic andagricultural commodity prices for the world.Material and Methods: To this end, we employ Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier Toda-Yamamotocausality tests for the period of January 24, 2020 to January 22, 2021. Before testing the causalrelationship between variables, we apply augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Fourier ADFunit root tests to each series to determine maximum order of integration.Results: The findings show that all variables are stationary in their first difference and themaximum order of integration is determined as 1. The results obtained from causality testsshow that COVID-19 new cases Granger cause to coffee, sugar, cotton, corn, and soybeanprices while COVID-19 new cases do not cause wheat and oats prices. It was also concludedthat new deaths based on COVID-19 Granger cause to coffee, sugar, and cotton whereasCOVID-19 new deaths do not cause to corn, soybean, wheat and oat prices.Conclusion: In this study, time series analysis based on Toda-Yamamoto and Fourier TodaYamamoto causality tests highlight that the COVID-19 total new cases and total new deathsin the world has predictive power to predict further prices of agricultural commodities.Therefore, in terms of health management, policy makers should give substantial significanceto the implementation of COVID-19 related health policies and agricultural policies togetherduring the COVID-19 pandemic period