The Accuracy and Efficiency of the Consensus Forecasts: A Further Application and Extension of the Pooled Approach

In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons simultaneously. It is shown how the pooled approach needs to be adjusted in order to accommodate the forecasting scheme of the Consensus Forecasts. Furthermore, the pooled approach is extended by a sequential test with the purpose of detecting the critical horizon after which the forecast should be regarded as biased. Moreover, heteroscedasticity in the form of year-specific variances of macroeconomic shocks is taken into account. The results show that in the analyzed period which was characterized by pronounced macroeconomic shocks, several countries show biased forecasts, especially with forecasts covering more than 12 months. In addition, information efficiency has to be rejected in almost all cases. --business cycle forecasting,forecast evaluation,Consensus Forecasts

Deutschland steckt in der Rezession

Zur anhaltenden Krise auf den internationalen Finanzmärkten ist eine gravierende Störung auf den Güter- und Arbeitsmärkten hinzugekommen. Was seit dem Zusammenbruch einer US-amerikanischen Spezialbank im Herbst letzten Jahres an Belastungen über die Weltwirtschaft hereingebrochen ist, hat mittlerweile historische Dimensionen angenommen

The accuracy and efficiency of the consensus forecasts : a further application and extension of the pooled approach

In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic forecasts of the Consensus Forecasts for 12 countries over the period from 1996 to 2006 regarding bias and information efficiency. A pooled approach is employed which permits the evaluation of all forecasts for each target variable over 24 horizons simultaneously. It is shown how the pooled approach needs to be adjusted in order to accommodate the forecasting scheme of the Consensus Forecasts. Furthermore, the pooled approach is extended by a sequential test with the purpose of detecting the critical horizon after which the forecast should be regarded as biased. Moreover, heteroscedasticity in the form of year-specific variances of macroeconomic shocks is taken into account. The results show that in the analyzed period which was characterized by pronounced macroeconomic shocks, several countries show biased forecasts, especially with forecasts covering more than 12 months. In addition, information efficiency has to be rejected in almost all cases

The PAX Toolkit and its Applications at Tevatron and LHC

At the CHEP03 conference we launched the Physics Analysis eXpert (PAX), a C++ toolkit released for the use in advanced high energy physics (HEP) analyses. This toolkit allows to define a level of abstraction beyond detector reconstruction by providing a general, persistent container model for HEP events. Physics objects such as particles, vertices and collisions can easily be stored, accessed and manipulated. Bookkeeping of relations between these objects (like decay trees, vertex and collision separation, etc.) including deep copies is fully provided by the relation management. Event container and associated objects represent a uniform interface for algorithms and facilitate the parallel development and evaluation of different physics interpretations of individual events. So-called analysis factories, which actively identify and distinguish different physics processes and study systematic uncertainties, can easily be realized with the PAX toolkit. PAX is officially released to experiments at Tevatron and LHC. Being explored by a growing user community, it is applied in a number of complex physics analyses, two of which are presented here. We report the successful application in studies of t-tbar production at the Tevatron and Higgs searches in the channel t-tbar-Higgs at the LHC and give a short outlook on further developments

Charge carrier transfer in the gas electron multiplier at low gas gains

Connected to the Linear Collider project TESLA at DESY, studies on the readout of TPCs based on the GEM-technology are ongoing. For particle identication via dE/dx - measurement, a good energy resolution is indispensable, and therefore losses of primary electrons have to be avoided. It turned out, that in the GEM transverse diffusion inside or close to the holes is a not negligible reason for these losses. For Ar-CH4 90:10 and TPC-like field configurations it was found, that when operated in normal amplification mode, the Standard Geometry GEM should not lose primaries, whereas for low gains, also when operated in magnetic fields up to 5T, a GEM with larger pitch and hole diameter would be necessary