1,200 research outputs found

    Time Series Modeling of Baseball Performance​

    Get PDF
    The 162 game long Major League Baseball season provides ample time for a player’s performance to vary and trend in different directions. Managers must set daily rosters for their teams, using past performance to help make decisions. But which prior performance periods tell us the most about upcoming performance? To answer this, it\u27s helpful to view a player’s future performance, for any given statistic, as a function of his performance in previous playing periods (e.g. previous game, previous week, previous year, etc.). In this on-going research project, we consider two approaches to predicting future performance from the past. In the first, we build a probability mass function for each of a set of discrete, disjoint past time periods and we use Expectation Maximization to learn the appropriate weights for each period to best predict future outcomes. In our second approach, we predict a player\u27s performance in the next game based on all previous history using a recurrent neural network

    Neutron-Capture elements in planetary nebulae: first detections of near-Infrared [Te III] and [Br V] emission lines

    Full text link
    We have identified two new near-infrared emission lines in the spectra of planetary nebulae (PNe) arising from heavy elements produced by neutron capture reactions: [Te III] 2.1019 ÎŒ\mum and [Br V] 1.6429 ÎŒ\mum. [Te III] was detected in both NGC 7027 and IC 418, while [Br V] was seen in NGC 7027. The observations were obtained with the medium-resolution spectrograph EMIR on the 10.4m Gran Telescopio Canarias at La Palma, and with the high-resolution spectrograph IGRINS on the 2.7m Harlan J. Smith telescope at McDonald Observatory. New calculations of atomic data for these ions, specifically A-values and collision strengths, are presented and used to derive ionic abundances of Te2+^{2+} and Br4+^{4+}. We also derive ionic abundances of other neutron-capture elements detected in the near-infrared spectra, and estimate total elemental abundances of Se, Br, Kr, Rb, and Te after correcting for unobserved ions. Comparison of our derived enrichments to theoretical predictions from AGB evolutionary models shows reasonable agreement for solar metallicity progenitor stars of ∌\sim2 - 4 M⊙_{\odot}. The spectrally-isolated [Br V] 1.6429 ÎŒ\mum line has advantages for determining nebular Br abundances over optical [Br III] emission lines that can be blended with other features. Finally, measurements of Te are of special interest because this element lies beyond the first peak of the s-process, and thus provides new leverage on the abundance pattern of trans-iron species produced by AGB stars.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure, 4 tables. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

    Combining Different Motivation and Cognitive Supports in Undergraduate Biology in Different Contexts: Lessons Learned

    Get PDF
    Researchers acknowledge that students’ learning and achievement requires both effective cognition and the motivation to apply it. In addition, both cognition and motivation are multidimensional, each involving different processes that may be less or more salient in different contexts. However, most basic research and intervention studies focus on either cognition OR motivation, and commonly only target a single process. We designed an intervention to investigate the role of different combinations of cognitive and motivational supports in first-year undergraduate introductory biology courses. We sought an online delivery approach with minimal burden on the instructor that can accompany any such course. Building on prior research, we selected four types of cognitive supports and three types of motivational supports. Cognitive supports: Priming Prior Knowledge, Demonstrating Worked Examples, Instructing Study Strategies and Scaffolding Organization of Lectures. Motivational supports: Self-Efficacy Promoting Feedback, Value Enhancement Through Relevance Writing, and Perceived Cost Alleviation Through Persuasion. The intervention study was designed to test the effects of different combinations of these cognition and motivation supports. Initial development began in 2015-2016 with post-iterative experiments in 2017. Overall, there were 3,092 undergraduate student participants, tested in 10 studies at 3 universities over 4 years. Students were randomly assigned to either a no-treatment control condition or one of 17 combinations of cognition and motivation intervention modules delivered via the Internet, each over the course of a semester. A meta-analysis of the overall effect of all interventions on grades across the 10 studies was positive (g = .30), with significant moderation of fidelity (i.e., students’ access; g = .24) and research phase (stronger effect in later administrations; g = .26). Moreover, certain combinations had little effect across administrations (e.g., any combination with Priming Prior Knowledge). However, the development and testing process also pointed to contextual and situational factors that influenced the effect of mostly effective interventions. For example, in one institution, Scaffolding Organization of Lectures through thematically segmenting lecture videos had the unintended consequence of students stopping lecture attendance. Or, in one institution but not in others, students “crammed” on the supports, which undermined the effect and required modifying the intervention in order to regulate timely access in that institution. Additionally, for yet to be explored reasons, successful combinations of modules were more effective in certain administrations in some institutions than in others. Finally, in certain administrations, there were unanticipated direct effects of motivational modules on cognitive biological reasoning, and cognitive modules on motivational beliefs The current study demonstrated that, when aggregated across context, time, and participants, a “hands-off” administration of a combination of certain cognitive and motivational supports can meaningfully improve undergraduate students’ motivation, biological reasoning, and course grades, with a stronger effect than a cognitive or motivation intervention alone. In addition, however, the findings point to important contextual as well as potentially unpredictable factors as moderating the effect of such interventions. “Evidence-based practice” might need to be considered a “first-step” in a systematic design process of catering any intervention to the particular educational context

    Combined SRL-Based Cognitive-Motivational Modules Increase Undergraduate Biology Grades

    Get PDF
    Students’ success in undergraduate STEM courses requires effective study strategies, but also the motivation to enact them, drawing on two key tenets of Self-Regulated Learning. Interventions designed to promote students’ achievement and retention in STEM have commonly focused on either cognition or motivation. Building on Pintrich’s (2000) SRL framework, we iteratively-developed and tested the effect of different combinations of one of four cognition-focused with one of three motivation-focused intervention modules. Initial development took place in 2015-2016 and post-iterative experiments occurred in 2017. Participants were 3,092 undergraduate introductory biology students tested in 10 studies at 3 universities over 4 academic years. They were randomly assigned to either a no-treatment control condition or one of 17 conditions involving either a cognition, motivation, or a combined cognition and motivation intervention module, that was delivered via the Internet over the course of an entire semester. Course grades were provided by the instructor. We used a meta-analysis to capture the overall effect of students’ access to the interventions on grades, and to test whether differences across experiments such as fall versus spring implementation changed the effect size for the interventions. Averaging across all 10 studies, the combined intervention had an effect of g = .30. All 10 moderators were significant: cognitive+motivational versus either one alone, timely access to the intervention, iterative development phase, type of cognitive or type of motivation module, the specific cognitive-motivation combination, university, academic year, semester, first versus second semester of biology, and course content. We conclude that interventions based in SRL theory and delivered online can meaningfully improve undergraduate students’ course grades (corresponding to 6.6 percentage points on final course grade), with minimal extra work for instructors. However, these effects were dependent on a variety of contextual factors
    • 

    corecore