Shelflife of whole fresh Lake Malawi tilapia (Oreochromis species – Chambo) stored in ice

Lake Malawi Tilapia (chambo) fish species is widely consumed and forms the most important commercial fishery in Lake Malawi. However, as a highly perishable commodity, knowledge regarding how long fresh fish would remain in acceptable and safe condition in storage is indispensable for consumers and processors. Presently, no such information exists for the Lake Malawi Tilapia in Malawi. A study was therefore conducted to estimate shelflife of whole fresh Lake Malawi Tilapia stored in ice (0oC) for 21 days. Sensory, microbiological and pH analyses were conducted to describe changes in quality and freshness of the fish with storage time in ice. Shelflife of the fish was estimated between 16 and 18 days. A strong linear correlation (R2=0.95) was observed between sensory demerit scores and storage time in ice. Total bacteria viable counts and pH at the time of sensory rejection of the fish were 1.6×107 cfu/g/cm2 and5.84 respectively. Pseudomonas and Micrococcus bacteria were found in relatively high numbers throughout the storage period. The study demonstrated that like other tropical fish, Lake Malawi Tilapia has a relatively longer shelflife. The long storage life in ice of Lake Malawi Tilapia is advantageous to most small scale fresh fish sellers and processors especially from rural areas in Malawi who solely depend on ice as a sole and affordable way of preserving fresh fish.Key words: Shelflife, Tilapia, ice storag

The role of Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) in economic growth in Zambia

This study empirically investigates the role Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) play in the economic growth of Zambia from 1992: Q1 to 2015: Q4. The main aim of the study is to find out if DFIs enhance economic growth in Zambia and if the growth witnessed over the study period was in fact improved by these inflows. Additionally, a multiple regression is run against the exchange rate, inflation unemployment and interest rate to further analyse the interaction of these variables with DFI inflows and how they have impacted the growth levels experienced in Zambia. The findings show that the impact DFIs on the GDP are ambiguous. In current period and DFI lagged to 2 periods prior, has a depressing effect whilst DFI lagged one period has an encouraging effect on GDP levels. Furthermore, from the cointegration tests, it is evident that there is a long run relationship that exists, signifying that the positive effects of DFIs can be felt in future periods especially if deployed to key sectors. The regression results of the other variables are in line with macro-economic theory which suggests that DFI inflows need to be supplemented with stable macro conditions to boost the degree of positive impact on GDP. To ensure future benefit to Zambia from DFI inflows; recommendations preferred to authorities inferred from the findings include, directing of these funds to job and revenue generating sectors that can increase export revenue. These sectors may include agriculture and manufacturing. Furthermore, it is cardinal that institutional infrastructures are put in place that effect legal and monitoring framework to ensure efficient deployment of these funds within the economy

Modeling and Forecasting of Engraulicypris sardella (Usipa) Yields from Mangochi Artisanal Fisheries of Lake Malawi using Holt Exponential Smoothing Method

This study was aimed at modelling and forecasting Engraulicypris sardella (Usipa) species yield from artisanal fishery on Lake Malawi in Mangochi District. The study was based on secondary count time series data on fish catches during the years of 1976 through 2012 provided by Fisheries Research Unit of the Department of Fisheries in Malawi. The study considered Holt exponential smoothing method to select an appropriate stochastic model for forecasting the Usipa species yields. Appropriate model was chosen based on Holt‟s exponential parameters α (alpha) and β (beta) Box – Ljung statistics and distribution of residual errors among others were estimated. The Holt‟s exponential smoothing method showed that the artisanal fishery landings of Usipa would increase to 22,849.4 tonnes in year 2022 which is 2,135.76 tonnes more than the landings in the year 2010 of 20,713.64 tonnes assuming that the biological and ecological factors remain the same. The forecast mean for Usipa is predicted to be 22,849.4 tonnes through the year 2022. The study observed that Usipa fisheries is being exploited sustainably. The confidence interval of 95% does not include a zero meaning that the likelihood that Usipa fishery might be under extinction currently or anytime soon might be very low. The increase of Usipa, could be as a result of a decline in population of competing species in the ecosystem. The Usipa Management Strategy for Southeast and Southwest Arms of Lake Malawi and Lake Malombe developed by the USAID/FISH Project will ensure continued effective and sustainable management of exploitation of the fishery. Keywords: Engraulicypris sardella, landings, Holt exponential smoothing method, artisanal fishery, Lake Malawi

Modelling and forecasting of catfish species yield from Mangochi artisan fisheries of Lake malawi in Malawi

Most of the wild fish stocks in Malawi either are fully or over exploited. This challenge underpins importance of forecasting using available data to support sustainable fisheries management. The study aimed at modelling and forecasting Catfish (Mlamba) species yield from artisan fishery on Lake Malawi in Mangochi District as they are becoming important food fish due to decline of more important fish species such as Oreochromis(Chambo). The study was based on secondary data on fish catches between1976 and 2012, collected from Fisheries Research Unit of the Department of Fisheries in Malawi. The study considered Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model for forecasting the species yield. Appropriate models were chosen based on ARIMA (p, d, q). Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partialautocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Box-Ljung statistics, correlogram of residual errors, distribution of residual errors, ME, RMSE, MAPE and MAE. Selected model was ARIMA (0, 0, 1) for forecasting artisan landings of Catfish from Lake Malawi in Mangochi District from 2013 to 2022. Based on the chosen model, forecast for artisan Catfish landings showed mean of 352 tonnes and mean of actual catches was 362 tonnes. However, catches in year 2022 are projected to be 360 tonnes, slightly below the actual catches mean but above 236 tonnes in 2010, assuming other factors remain constant. Confidence intervals of the forecasts included a zero and as such over exploitation of the species cannot be ruled out. Landings of the fishery will increase to 360 tonnes and remain stable through year 2022 necessitating fisheries managementconsideration to improve the trend. Policy makers should secure sustainable exploitation of Catfish species, among artisan fishery in the study area by controlling all fishing effort that lands the species such as gillnets, beach seines, open water seines among others

Evaluation of growth performance and feed utilization of Oreochromis shiranus and Coptodon rendalli fed diets combining Moringa oleifera leaf meal and Cajanus cajan meal

This study evaluated the growth performance and feed utilization of Oreochromis shiranus and Coptodon rendalli fed on diets combining Moringa oleifera leaf and Cajanus cajan.  A factorial experiment (4×2) in a Completely Randomized Design with three replicates was used. Oreochromis shiranus and C. rendalli (22.20±2.03 g) were randomly selected, assigned to 24 experimental units and reared for 90 days. The fish were fed 32% protein diets formulated as follows: Diet 1- Control (0 g/kg M. oleifera leaf and 0 g/kg C. cajan), Diet 2 (100 g/kg M. oleifera leaf + 150 g/kg C. cajan), Diet 3 - (200 g/kg M.  oleifera leaf + 300 g/kg C. cajan), and Diet 4 (300 g/kg M. oleifera leaf + 450 g/kg C. cajan). The results revealed that there were significant differences in final body weight, body weight gain, and specific growth rate among dietary treatments for both species (P<0.05). Coptodon rendalli performed better in final body weight, weight gain, and specific growth (60.94±0.54 g, 39.47±0.53 g and 1.13±0.02 %/d, respectively) than O. shiranus when fed Diet 2.  However, no significant difference was recorded in condition factor (CF) among the dietary treatments for both species (P>0.05). Coptodon rendalli obtained the best apparent feed conversion ratio (2.75±0.06) and protein efficiency ratio (0.73±0.02) than O shiranus, when fed Diet 2. It is therefore concluded that Diet 2 (100g/kg M. oleifera leaf + 150g/kg C. cajan) recorded the best growth performance and feed utilization for both species and can replace soybean meal as a fish feed ingredient

Biomarkers of collagen synthesis predict progression in the PROFILE idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis cohort.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterised by excessive extracellular matrix (ECM) deposition and remodelling. Measuring this activity provides an opportunity to develop tools capable of identifying individuals at-risk of progression. Longitudinal change in markers of ECM synthesis was assessed in 145 newly-diagnosed individuals with IPF. Serum levels of collagen synthesis neoepitopes, PRO-C3 and PRO-C6 (collagen type 3 and 6), were elevated in IPF compared with controls at baseline, and progressive disease versus stable disease during follow up, (PRO-C3 p  0 vs. LOW slope, slope < =0) demonstrated no relationship with mortality for these markers (PRO-C3 (HR 1.62, p = 0.080); PINP (HR 0.76, p = 0.309); PRO-C6 (HR 1.14, p = 0.628)). As previously reported, rising concentrations of collagen degradation markers C1M, C3M, C6M and CRPM were associated with an increased risk of overall mortality (HR = 1.84, CI 1.03–3.27, p = 0.038, HR = 2.44, CI 1.39–4.31, p = 0.002; HR = 2.19, CI 1.25–3.82, p = 0.006; HR = 2.13 CI 1.21–3.75, p = 0.009 respectively). Elevated levels of PRO-C3 and PRO-C6 associate with IPF disease progression. Collagen synthesis and degradation biomarkers have the potential to enhance clinical trials in IPF and may inform prognostic assessment and therapeutic decision making in the clinic

EVerT: Cryotherapy versus salicylic acid for the treatment of verrucae - a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE: To compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cryotherapy using liquid nitrogen versus patient daily self-treatment with 50% salicylic acid for the treatment of verrucae (plantar warts). DESIGN: A multicentre, pragmatic, open, two-armed randomised controlled trial with an economic evaluation. Randomisation was simple, with the allocation sequence generated by a computer in a 1 : 1 ratio. SETTING: Podiatry clinics, university podiatry schools and primary care in England, Scotland and Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: Patients were eligible if they presented with a verruca which, in the opinion of the health-care professional, was suitable for treatment with both salicylic acid and cryotherapy, and were aged 12 years and over. INTERVENTIONS: Cryotherapy using liquid nitrogen delivered by a health-care professional compared with daily patient self-treatment with 50% salicylic acid (Verrugon, William Ransom & Son Plc, Hitchin, UK) for a maximum of 8 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was complete clearance of all verrucae at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes were complete clearance of all verrucae at 12 weeks, controlling for age, whether or not the verrucae had been previously treated and type of verrucae, with a second model to explore the effect of patient preferences, time to clearance of verrucae, clearance of verrucae at 6 months, number of verrucae at 12 weeks and patient satisfaction with the treatment RESULTS: In total, 240 eligible patients were recruited, with 117 patients allocated to the cryotherapy group and 123 to the salicylic acid group. There was no evidence of a difference in clearance rates between the treatment groups in the primary outcome [17/119 (14.3%) in the salicylic acid group vs 15/110 (13.6%) in the cryotherapy group; p = 0.89]. The results of the study did not change when controlled for age, whether or not the verrucae had been previously treated and type of verrucae, or when patient preferences were explored. There was no evidence of a difference in time to clearance of verrucae between the two groups [hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51 to 1.25; p = 0.33] or in the clearance of verrucae at 6 months (33.7% cryotherapy vs 30.5% salicylic acid). There was no evidence of a difference in the number of verrucae at 12 weeks between the two groups (incidence rate ratio 1.08, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.43; p = 0.62). Nineteen participants reported 28 adverse events, 14 in each group, with two treatment-related non-serious adverse events in the cryotherapy group. Cryotherapy was also associated with higher mean costs per additional healed patient (£101.17, 95% bias-corrected and accelerated CI £85.09 to £117.26). The probability of cryotherapy being cost-effective is 40% for a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds of £15,000-30,000 per patient healed. CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence for a difference in terms of clearance of verrucae between cryotherapy and salicylic acid (at both 12 weeks and 6 months), number of verrucae at 12 weeks and time to clearance of verrucae. Cryotherapy was associated with higher mean costs per additional healed patient compared with salicylic acid. TRIAL REGISTRATION:Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN18994246. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 15, No. 32. See the HTA programme website for further project information

Clinical quantification of the integrin αvβ6 by [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 positron emission tomography in healthy and fibrotic human lung (PETAL Study)

© 2019, The Author(s). Purpose: The RGD-integrin, αvβ6, plays a role in the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis through activation of transforming growth factor beta (TGFβ). This study sought to quantify expression of αvβ6 in the lungs of healthy humans and subjects with pulmonary fibrosis using the αvβ6-selective [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 PET ligand. Methods: [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 PET/CT scans were performed in healthy subjects and those with fibrotic lung disease. Standard uptake values (SUV) and volume of distribution (VT) were used to quantify αvβ6 expression. In subjects with fibrotic lung disease, qualitative assessment of the relationship between αvβ6 expression and the distribution of fibrosis on high resolution computed tomography was conducted. Results: A total of 15 participants (6 healthy, 7 with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and 2 with connective tissue disease (CTD) associated PF) were enrolled. VT and SUV of [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 were increased in the lungs of subjects with pulmonary fibrosis (PF) compared with healthy subjects. Geometric mean VT (95% CI) was 0.88 (0.60, 1.29) mL/cm3 for healthy subjects, and 1.40 (1.22, 1.61) mL/cm3 for subjects with IPF; and SUV was 0.54 (0.36, 0.81) g/mL for healthy subjects and 1.03 (0.86, 1.22) g/mL for subjects with IPF. The IPF/healthy VT ratio (geometric mean, (95% CI of ratio)) was 1.59 (1.09, 2.32) (probability ratio > 1 = 0.988)) and the SUV ratio was 1.91 (1.27, 2.87) (probability ratio > 1 = 0.996). Increased uptake of [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 in PF was predominantly confined to fibrotic areas. [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 measurements were reproducible at an interval of 2 weeks. [18F]FB-A20FMDV2 was safe and well tolerated. Conclusions: Lung uptake of [18F]FB-A20FMDV2, a measure of expression of the integrin αvβ6, was markedly increased in subjects with PF compared with healthy subjects

Development and piloting of a primary school-based salt reduction programme: formative work and a process evaluation in rural and urban Malawi

Excess salt intake is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Promoting salt reduction as part of routine school-health programming may be a pragmatic way to address this risk factor early in the life course but has not been tested in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here we describe the formative work with stakeholders and process evaluation of pilot work to develop a school-based salt reduction programme for children aged 11–14 years, in preparation for a cluster-randomised trial in rural/urban Malawi. Collection of observational data and documentary evidence (meeting minutes/field notes) from the earliest key stakeholder engagement with Malawi Ministries of Health, Education, Local Government and Rural Development and Malawi Institute of Education, and non-governmental stakeholders; and a series of semi-structured interviews and focus groups (with head teachers (n = 2); teachers (n = 4); parents (n = 30); and learners (n = 40)). Data was analysed thematically and conceptualised through a Normalization Process Theory lens. Formative work illustrated a range of administrative, technical, and practical issues faced during development of the programme; including allocation of stakeholder roles and responsibilities, harmonisation with pre-existing strategies and competing priorities, resources required for programme development, and design of effective teaching materials. While participants were positive about the programme, the process evaluation identified features to be refined including perceived challenges to participation, recommended adaptations to the content and delivery of lessons, and concerns related to quantity/quality of learning resources provided. This study demonstrates the importance of comprehensive, sustained, and participatory stakeholder engagement in the development of a novel school health programme in SSA; and highlights the factors that were critical to successfully achieving this. We also demonstrate the value of detailed process evaluation in informing development of the programme to ensure that it was feasible and relevant to the context prior to evaluation through a cluster-randomised trial

Acupuncture, Counseling, and Usual care for Depression (ACUDep): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: The evidence on the effect of acupuncture or counseling for depression is not conclusive yet is sufficient to warrant further research. Our aim is to conduct a full-scale RCT to determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of acupuncture and counseling compared to usual care alone. We will explore the experiences and perspectives of patients and practitioners. Methods/Design: Randomized controlled trial with three parallel arms: acupuncture plus usual care, counseling plus usual care, and usual care alone, in conjunction with a nested qualitative study using in-depth interviews with purposive samples of trial participants. Participants: Patients aged over 18 years diagnosed with depression or mood disorder by their GP and with a score of 20 or above on the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II). Randomization: Computer randomization by York Trials Unit to acupuncture, counseling, and usual care alone in proportions of 2:2:1, respectively, with secure allocation concealment. Interventions: Patients allocated to acupuncture and counseling groups receive the offer of up to 12 weekly sessions. Both interventions allow flexibility to address patient variation, yet are constrained within defined protocols. Acupuncture is based on traditional Chinese medicine and counseling is non-directive within the humanistic tradition. Outcome: The PHQ-9 is the primary outcome measure, collected at baseline, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Also measured is BDI-II, SF-36 Bodily pain subscale, and EQ-5D. Texted mood scores are collected weekly over the first 15 weeks. Health-related resource use is collected over 12 months. Analysis: The sample size target was for 640 participants, calculated for an effect size of 0.32 on the PHQ-9 when comparing acupuncture with counseling given 90% power, 5% significance, and 20% loss to follow-up. Analysis of covariance will be used on an intention-to-treat basis. Thematic analysis will be used for qualitative data. We will compare incremental cost-effectiveness of the three treatment options at 12 months. Discussion: Ethical approval was obtained in October 2009. There were six subsequent protocol amendments, the last of which was approved in January 2012. Recruitment of 755 participants took place over 18 months. Data collection will be completed by June 2012. No interim analyses have been conducted