Modelling potential distribution of fluvial fish species for expanding conservation knowledge: Case study of the genus Barbus in Iran

Species inhabiting fresh waters are severely influenced by anthropogenic factors. Effective management and conservation plans require high accurate and reliable species distribution forecasts. Here, we modelled potential distribution of the genus Barbus in Iran, based on environmental variables using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Six environmental predictors (i.e. slope, bankfull width, elevation, mean air temperature, range of air temperature and annual precipitation) were applied for modelling. The models were selected among different technique (GLM, GAM, CTA, SRE, GBM, RF, MARS, and FDA) which their results were summarized through ensemble forecasting approaches. According to the TSS (True Skill Statistic), the accuracy of the implemented models was greater than 0.8. The results showed that the projected distributions not only were observed in the same recorded basins but also in the new basins. Presented results deepen the conservation knowledge in Iran and act as a guidance for management decisions aimed at legal identification of critical habitats for species as well as informing them for translocation of threatened or captive-bred populations

Environmental and socioeconomic assessment of agroforestry implementation in Iran

peer reviewedAgroforestry has been recognized as a sustainable strategy over conventional agriculture that can mitigate environmental impacts, enhance ecosystem services, maintain natural resources, and simultaneously improve smallholders’ livelihoods in rural areas. Agroforestry will be most effective in agricultural lands that are more vulnerable in terms of environmental and socioeconomic aspects. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the priority areas that are more susceptible to agroforestry. The objective of this study was to evaluate where and to what extent Iran's farmlands were subjected to increased environmental and socioeconomic pressures that can be alleviated through the implementation of agroforestry practices. To do so, two climatic, four soil, and four socioeconomic indicators were selected, and their maps were generated as well. Then, pressure maps of these indicators were created by applying the critical threshold of each indicator to the corresponding map. Finally, all the pressure maps were accumulated on a map called the Agroforestry Suitability Map (ASM). The locations that have more than five pressures on the current map were designated as priority areas for the development of agroforestry. The main findings showed that rise in temperature and soil organic carbon (SOC) deficit were the dominant pressures that affected the study area. Furthermore, about 17% of the total farmlands were recognized as the priority areas. The priority areas were mostly located in arid and semi-arid regions, which indicates the greater vulnerability of these regions to climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Our results highlighted that the farmlands of Kermanshah, Khuzestan, and Lorestan provinces, located adjacent to the Zagros Mountains, are the most suited areas for agroforestry implementation, respectively. The study findings could assist decision makers in mitigating the negative effects of environmental pressures and in providing a wide range of other beneficial services through the establishment of agroforestry systems in the recognized priority areas

Impact of Heat Stress on Rainfed Wheat Growth and Yield Under Semi-arid, Semi-humid and Mediterranean Climates in Iran Condition

peer reviewedAssessing crop yield in response to heat and drought stress is important in implementing the best adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change. For this aim, observations from 105 agricultural/meteorological experiments in the semi-arid (Maragheh, Qamlou and Sararoud), Mediterranean (Hashem Abad and Oltan) and semi-humid (Gharakhil) regions of Iran were used to investigate the response of the reproductive growing duration (RGD) and grain yield of rainfed winter wheat to certain climatic and agro-climatic indices consisted of precipitation (mm), growing degree days (GDDs), and cumulative extreme temperatures above wheat tolerance threshold level of ≥ 34 °C (TAT). Accordingly, multiple linear regression was applied under baseline (1998–2012) and future increasing temperature (by 1 °C and 2 °C). Results indicated that the average of wheat RGD and yield were 37.2 ± 0.71 d and 2.3 ± 0.05 t ha−1 in semi-arid, 25.7 ± 0.8 d and 2.9 ± 0.11 t ha−1 in semi-humid, and 21.7 ± 0.59 d and 5.25 ± 0.17 t ha−1 in Mediterranean regions, respectively. The main findings showed that, on average during 1998–2012, wheat RGD and yield changed by − 0.26 d yr−1 and − 0.93% (0.02 t ha−1 yr−1) in semi-arid, + 0.25 d yr−1 and − 1.27% (0.04 t ha−1 yr−1) in semi-humid, and − 0.01 d yr−1 and − 0.27% (0.01 t ha−1 yr−1) in Mediterranean regions, respectively. Precipitation and TAT had substantial positive and negative impacts on RGD by + 0.1 d yr−1 and − 0.03 d yr−1, and crop yield by + 0.04% and − 1.14% in all study locations. An increase in GDDs, however, significantly shortened RGD (− 0.06 d yr−1) and consequently reduced grain yield (− 0.04%) in semi-arid regions, while in semi-humid and Mediterranean regions, increasing GDDs had a positive impact on RGD (+ 0.07 d yr−1) and yield (+ 0.19%). Among the indices, TAT showed significantly greater detrimental effects on RGD and grain yield particularly when accompanied by less precipitation (i.e. drought stress). Our results highlighted that any increase in temperatures even by 1 °C or 2 °C would lead to drastic increases in TAT and GDDs in all study regions, most especially in semi-arid regions. Under these conditions, any benefits from precipitation would be neutralized by the negative impacts of increased GDDs and TAT in all study locations. The insights into crop response to weather variations and climate extremes provide excellent evidence and a basis for reducing crop yield damage by designing for improved heat tolerance for the future

Waterless wetlands, as a new source of wind erosion: Developing remediation strategies for the Hamoon Wetland in Iran

This research identified factors influencing wind erosion and remediation strategies in the Hamoon Wetland in the Sistan plain of southeastern Iran. First, a map was prepared to classify erosion levels based on a model by the Iran Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands (IRIFR). Secondly, factors contributing to erosion were identified. Finally, the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) model was employed to identify the most significant strategies for preventing and managing wind erosion impacts in the wetland. In our study area, the low erosion class covered the greatest extent of land at 41.2%. Considering the overall extent of the Hamoon Wetland, this is still a considerable number, and we discuss the numerous threats which contribute to making the Hamoon Wetland the greatest dust producer in the area. Erosion was primarily influenced by wind speed and direction, vegetation density, land shape and elevation. In the SWOT analysis, we propose in detail various effective strategies to combat wind erosion. Watershed pathways need to be conserved in this area to minimize wind erosion. Otherwise, this will have irreversible negative consequences for the region that transcend borders which will likely exacerbate political tensions between Iran and Afghanistan. We conclude that implementing scientific models like the IRIFR and SWOT in this context provides valuable quantitative information for policymakers to safeguard wetland ecosystems for the sake of mitigating wind erosion